What this team needs is a left handed monkey wrench.

I'm not trying to dog on your post, but I think we all need to take a step back from the "Vegas model". We have a one year sample size with a roster full of guys that are on one year deals that had a bit extra motivation because they were not "protected" by their original clubs. Not to mention, MAF played lights out for them.

I'm not predicting anything, but I would not be surprised in the least if Vegas fell back down to earth a bit next year (not out of the playoffs, but not nearly as dominant as last year).
- Chunk

Seconding this comment.

Also, they got to select a bunch of 2-3 liners and 2nd pairing potential d-men (so their depth was more compacted through the lines) and other teams don't really have that option. Most teams have a much wider range in talent between the lines because that's how it goes when drafting and developing normally.

And ultimately, the team with maybe the most former 1st rounders on it ever won the cup. The Caps entire top 9 and half their defensemen were former 1st round pick ffs. That's not normal either but the more talented team, with more stars, did win in the end.

Seconding this comment.

Also, they got to select a bunch of 2-3 liners and 2nd pairing potential d-men (so their depth was more compacted through the lines) and other teams don't really have that option. Most teams have a much wider range in talent between the lines because that's how it goes when drafting and developing normally.

And ultimately, the team with maybe the most former 1st rounders on it ever won the cup. The Caps entire top 9 and half their defensemen were former 1st round pick ffs. That's not normal either but the more talented team, with more stars, did win in the end.
- L_B_R

I'd be stunned if the Golden Knights managed more than 35 wins next year.

He was injured and production dropped.
- fattybeef

Again there may have been an injury but there have been many examples of highly rated players who faced injuries in their draft year but don’t have their stock fall. Saad’s stock fell because of attitude. Fans watched to see if he would be an attitude problem when he went to training camp - he wasn’t and excelled. Saad is one of the reasons I an not at all concerned about Merkley’s “attitude” problems.

What this team needs is a left handed monkey wrench.
- Beaver-Warrior

Or a hammerfor.

Not bad signing Hino and Hayden.

Hino can get points but I think it will matter who he gets slotted with.

Here are the forwards he played with most at 5v5 and his scoring points per 60 minutes of icetime with those forwards.

Kampf 238:37 - 1.01 Points per 60 min
Schmaltz 150:25 - 1.60 Points per 60 min
Saad 126:33 - 3.79 Points per 60 min
Toews 108:49 - 3.86 Points per 60 min
Sharp 108:40 - 0.55 Points per 60 min
Debrincat 90:40 - 1.46 Points per 60 min
Jurco 76:42 - 0.78 Points per 60 min


For reference over the course of the full season at 5v5 (filtered out guys who didn't play significant minutes) McDavid was a league leader in Points per 60 min at 3.17 followed by MacKinnon and Matthews at 2.99 and 2.91.

Kane was around 2.16 and Debrincat 2.14

I think you play Hinostroza in the top 6, you'll probably get 40-50 points. Keep him down in the bottom 6 and you can probably expect 20-30 points. Obviously this can swing in a big way depending on Powerplay time/usage. I think at times he played at that top 6 level and if he can get consistent and show the coaches he has the backchecking to be in that role, I think he could be a bargain.
- breadbag

Wake me up when someone plays 60min and these mean something

Wake me up when someone plays 60min and these mean something
- PatShart

Well, they do mean something - it means that in the time together, for some reason, Hinostroza produced decently with Saad-Toews. For the how or why, you'd have to look into it a lot more.

P60 is just a way to try to compare players that do not have the same opportunities for points in-game in terms of TOI. It has it's flaws but it's useful because it can be a starting point for examining/evaluating a player's performance, individually or with other players. It's lacking context, such as deployment and usage, but it's not a bad starting point to look deeper into those things.

to me, this team needs some player who perform when the game is on the line. Last season these guys didn't exactly help the team win close games.

Sharp
Forsling
Anisimov
Seabrook
Keith

To me, Sharp retiring is gonna help, because he didn't have it anymore. He maybe could have road the coat tails on a line that was heavily sheltered, but he didn't help this team win games. He did help some young guys adjust to the NHL.

Forsling didn't have a good time, especially when paired with Rutta. I think part of it was he didn't play well and goaltending didn't bail him out. I think he might be a trade chip if he doesn't show some progress soon.

AA to me, they got to find a better option defensively. He has some value and obviously did okay with PP goals because he had a shooting % of like 30% last season on the PP, but he shouldn't be a shutdown option.

Seabrook needs to bounce back...plain and simple, he was too soft and too ineffective at both ends. He was beat with speed, caught pinching, turning pucks over and way less physical than they need him to be.

Keith, but his standards wasn't good and also didn't have a great partner. His play might drop further next season and that doesn't bode well for the Hawks. He isn't a bad player, but in an ideal world, they don't have to use him in a shutdown defensive role.
- breadbag

Overall good analysis of these 5 Hawks (former Hawk in Sharp's case now that he's retired).

I agree that Forsling is likely a major trade chip while also still being a valued prospect. If he's traded, it will ideally be to address an immediate need, but he also has great upside if he stays within the organization and continues steady development (he's only 22).

As for Keith, for many of the Cup-run seasons between 2010 and 2015, he didn't have to be the shutdown defender. IIRC, that was Hjalmarsson and Oduya's role. I could be wrong. LBR or others may have deployment stats to verify who had the toughest assignments and where their zone starts were. etc.

Here is the bit about the Hawks from Custance's Athletic piece "Examining the trade possibilities of every first-round pick in the NHL Draft"

https://theathletic.com/3...nd-pick-in-the-nhl-draft/

8. Chicago Blackhawks: The Blackhawks, however unlikely, are our first real candidate to move out of this spot completely. The consensus around the league is that Chicago GM Stan Bowman is looking to do something significant this offseason. That may come in the form of a free agent signing, like John Tavares or James van Riemsdyk. But if those options disappear, and you can’t underestimate Lou Lamoriello’s full-court press on John Tavares right now removing him from the market, this pick becomes the ammunition to make a big move.

The buzz around the Blackhawks fuels the belief that they want to take another run with their core group. That suggests they’d like to get someone with this pick who can contribute sooner rather than later.

“If you knocked their socks off, maybe,” said one source when asked if Chicago would move out. “But they’re not really shopping it.”

27. Chicago Blackhawks: Last year, Henri Jokiharju was the Blackhawks’ first pick in the first round since 2015. So acquiring this pick from Nashville is a real opportunity to make up for that gap. Chicago doesn’t have a second-round pick, so it may be a move-down candidate in this spot.

I'm not trying to dog on your post, but I think we all need to take a step back from the "Vegas model". We have a one year sample size with a roster full of guys that are on one year deals that had a bit extra motivation because they were not "protected" by their original clubs. Not to mention, MAF played lights out for them.

I'm not predicting anything, but I would not be surprised in the least if Vegas fell back down to earth a bit next year (not out of the playoffs, but not nearly as dominant as last year).
- Chunk

I'd have to agree as well that the Golden Knights will come to earth in seasons to come. I still think they're a playoff team, but they won't be perennial President's Trophy candidates or Stanley Cup finalists.

I also don't think Karlsson is going to be a Rocket Richard candidate each year. I think his water level is 25 goals, and 30+ in a really good year. Generally, there will be a "market correction" with much of Vegas next season and beyond.

But they could surprise everyone again and just continue to defy the odds. Great marketing material for the city. You can't write this stuff.

All true. Remember that AA's 10 team NTC kicks in 2018-19. Not sure what date that is effective, but could make moving him a bit harder.
- Return of the Roar

He was told before the trade deadline this time to get a list ready.
I don’t see what I am about to propose happen unless there is a center signing: trade Anisimov to the Habs with slot eight for slot. Montreal has been making inquiring to move back (probably indicating the really have Jesperi as their original target before the actually won the lottery, so they get Aa & slot eight.
IMO that is really not enough but who knows?
Hawks then can get Hughes, the best winger, or Brady.

He was told before the trade deadline this time to get a list ready.
I don’t see what I am about to propose happen unless there is a center signing: trade Anisimov to the Habs with slot eight for slot. Montreal has been making inquiring to move back (probably indicating the really have Jesperi as their original target before the actually won the lottery, so they get Aa & slot eight.
IMO that is really not enough but who knows?
Hawks then can get Hughes, the best winger, or Brady.
- wiz1901

In this deal who else’s would you like to come back to the hawks ?
Realistically

Nice catch DK.

I can see a very similar contract for him. I don't know it it will be less... you know Stan. He did give Rutta $2.3M for no reason.
- Justin Lowe

Any thought I had that Bowman had learned his lesson regarding contracts died when I read this.
WTF

He was told before the trade deadline this time to get a list ready.
I don’t see what I am about to propose happen unless there is a center signing: trade Anisimov to the Habs with slot eight for slot. Montreal has been making inquiring to move back (probably indicating the really have Jesperi as their original target before the actually won the lottery, so they get Aa & slot eight.
IMO that is really not enough but who knows?
Hawks then can get Hughes, the best winger, or Brady.
- wiz1901

Two things, one who would the Blackhawks want at #3?

Plus:

That also assumes Jesperi is still there at eight, which would be a risk for Montreal.

I want to let Forsling develop.

In a year where the draft class is exploding with push defenseman to a point where almost every club picking in the top 50 has an opportunity at acquiring an “in development” kid who is a clone of Forsling, I don’t really understand why teams would be SO willing to trade much to acquire him, since he is still in the process of determining his own fate by playing well with his current team, thereby being a trade chip.
Are teams calling the Blackhawks night & day to get some Forsling?
If not why entertain the idea he is a sweetener trade wise? You play him and get him there, or you are done with him, he goes back and has a long career in the Swedish league.

I'd be stunned if the Golden Knights managed more than 35 wins next year.
- BINGO!

And they may be regretting any decision on ufa forward Karlsson new deal. If he’s smart enough to get the Knights to pay him 8 million with the threat of walking, and not settle for six, they actually would have to make a Cap decision this early one, not small potatoes signing or departure like Perron or the former Penguin.

In this deal who else’s would you like to come back to the hawks ?
Realistically
- Abadseed

No one
In my opinion AA and slot eight doesn’t get you slot three.
Try Arizona a few picks later.
Everyone see my latest mock on draftsite, where I ignore Boqvist’s end of the year concussion and get us Brady at slot 8, and the players are truly close to where they are possibly getting their names called?

Overall good analysis of these 5 Hawks (former Hawk in Sharp's case now that he's retired).

I agree that Forsling is likely a major trade chip while also still being a valued prospect. If he's traded, it will ideally be to address an immediate need, but he also has great upside if he stays within the organization and continues steady development (he's only 22).

As for Keith, for many of the Cup-run seasons between 2010 and 2015, he didn't have to be the shutdown defender. IIRC, that was Hjalmarsson and Oduya's role. I could be wrong. LBR or others may have deployment stats to verify who had the toughest assignments and where their zone starts were. etc.
- AEL_Fox

I think you are right. The Hawks were able to pretty much use either of the top pairs defensively without worry, then 2015/16 and 2016/17 it was Keith and Hjalmarsson...then last year it was Keith and flavor of the month...He gets older and the D core gets shallower...

Now, Keith is about to be 35 years old and with his knee probably never going to be 100%. He is still a great dman but the torch will need to pass soon. He was under 24 minutes a night last season and maybe that needs to drop a bit more.

I want to let Forsling develop.

In a year where the draft class is exploding with push defenseman to a point where almost every club picking in the top 50 has an opportunity at acquiring an “in development” kid who is a clone of Forsling, I don’t really understand why teams would be SO willing to trade much to acquire him, since he is still in the process of determining his own fate by playing well with his current team, thereby being a trade chip.
Are teams calling the Blackhawks night & day to get some Forsling?
If not why entertain the idea he is a sweetener trade wise? You play him and get him there, or you are done with him, he goes back and has a long career in the Swedish league.
- wiz1901

They certainly could let him keep developing, but they are gonna have struggles if they play him and he performs like he did last year. If the Hawks want to bounce back, I'd think they should only play him if he is going to be more reliable. He has upside, but I don't think they can afford to let him play through it in the NHL unless the rebuild is full swing.

I am just saying...in many sports, these internal issues like the current one that drags Mike Hoffman into the depths of his partner, have sometimes ended up with their teams reacting and the teams willing to take on the player the mess of a character rebuild getting excellent value in accepting the situation, having the front office help spin it into control.
So you can think as a team sign JvR and god knows the salary or another LW Hoffman where you might get them to share salary on the next two years.
Sure that doesn’t solve the defensive lapses the Rh pp point man but doesn’t it add scoring?
Maybe save the space until Artemi Panarin is an ufa, ha!

Two things, one who would the Blackhawks want at #3?

Plus:

That also assumes Jesperi is still there at eight, which would be a risk for Montreal.
- walleyeb1

Zadina Hughes or Brady insurance

Well, they do mean something - it means that in the time together, for some reason, Hinostroza produced decently with Saad-Toews. For the how or why, you'd have to look into it a lot more.

P60 is just a way to try to compare players that do not have the same opportunities for points in-game in terms of TOI. It has it's flaws but it's useful because it can be a starting point for examining/evaluating a player's performance, individually or with other players. It's lacking context, such as deployment and usage, but it's not a bad starting point to look deeper into those things.
- L_B_R

Show me the game a non-goalie ever played 60 min?

That stat means nothing. Because some people are better in sheltered minutes while some thrive playing more.

Anyone that has played versus reading corsi stats and diagrams will understand the physical and mental differences where when some players actually play more, their play gets sloppy and lazy.

Which is why different players play different minutes

So that made up statistics of points per 60min is as moronic as those that assume "if X player plays on the PP, had get 10-15 more points". As if being on the PP or getting more ice time magically equates to a guy scoring more points

Show me the game a non-goalie ever played 60 min?

That stat means nothing. Because some people are better in sheltered minutes while some thrive playing more.

Anyone that has played versus reading corsi stats and diagrams will understand the physical and mental differences where when some players actually play more, their play gets sloppy and lazy.

Which is why different players play different minutes

So that made up statistics of points per 60min is as moronic as those that assume "if X player plays on the PP, had get 10-15 more points". As if being on the PP or getting more ice time magically equates to a guy scoring more points
- PatShart

Relax Francis...

it's just a metric of time used to base scoring on an equal basis for all players.

Relax Francis...

it's just a metric of time used to base scoring on an equal basis for all players.
- dahawks8819

OK, Gandolph...I'll relax

Woah... Bergevin at it again... Galchenyuk for Domi.

Thoughts everyone?