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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: The Case For Trading Jonathan Toews
Author Message
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jun 11 @ 11:29 AM ET
Yeah, you picked a bad example lol. Toews may be declining (though only mildly, people are overreacting imo), but your example is comparing quite an accomplished player in Toews to a guy who is barely a NHL player at all in Martin.

My point is that a GMs make trades that fans think are weird because we don't have the same perspective on the team as them. What a GM thinks the team needs may not align with the fans. Who gives up Subban for Weber? Who gives up Hall for just Larsson? Neither of those trades are idiotically dumb (like your example), just lopsided from a skill level perspective. They did fill needs the GMs thought their teams had, though.

So yeah, there are the "ridiculous you're on crack armchair GM scenarios" fans make up and then there are "well, if a GM really felt they desperately needed _____, I guess but it's not a good value trade" that fans dislike. Key difference lbr. I personally, like I said, did not find that particular trade proposal realistic but I also wouldn't be that shocked if it happened cause GMs do things we as fans just don't always get.

- L_B_R

While I appreciate your well-thought out post, I would categorize Toews for Trouba and Little as closer to "crack armchair GM scenario" than "trade where we can't see the fit that the GM sees."
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 11:30 AM ET
Yeah, you picked a bad example lol. Toews may be declining, but he's quite an accomplished player where as Matt Martin is barely a NHL player at all.

My point is that a GMs make trades that fans think are weird because we don't have the same perspective on the team as them. What a GM thinks the team needs may not align with the fans. Who gives up Subban for Weber? Who gives up Hall for just Larsson? Neither of those trades are idiotically dumb (like your example), just lopsided from a skill level perspective. They did fill needs the GMs thought their teams had, though.

- L_B_R


You say Toews may be declining.

I say how much more and how soon he declines farther. You are hard pressed to introduce rvifrncr or support a claim that he can return to old form, even slightly return to old form, or be more productive as Toews II model. I would be glad to eat my words, no problem doing so if we see a near miraculous response from #19.

Tell you have hat, blog Rick from Canada gets the Canadian read on everything and has good analysis. I wonder how he feels about Toews' future. And btw whom he wants Bowman to take at # 8? Because I know that Rick has worked on entry fraftaterisl in the past and has a keen insight.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 11:31 AM ET
He played 3 games in the regular season after Jan 22, and didn't dress in the playoffs.

Simply put, he isn't fast enough to play the brand of hockey the Leafs are trying to play now.

At $2.5 million cap hit (two years left) and only $4 million in actual salary left, I'm guessing the Leafs will try to dump him for nothing this summer - maybe even try for the old Martin + 4th for a 7th kinda trade. But make no mistake: this will be a dump - Leafs won't be looking for value in return.

If they don't trade him, his low cap hit isn't the end of the world if he remains for another 2 years, but he's dead weight at this point.

- Atomic Wedgie


Thanks for the insight.

If the Hawks didn't resign Martinsen, I would have been down on bringing Martin in for some 4th Line work and see what happens. I know he's slow, but some physicality and energy would be great. Hawks should be getting that from Martinsen and Hayden, mixed with their skill, too- which will be really nice.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jun 11 @ 11:34 AM ET
Thanks for the insight.

If the Hawks didn't resign Martinsen, I would have been down on bringing Martin in for some 4th Line work and see what happens. I know he's slow, but some physicality and energy would be great. Hawks should be getting that from Martinsen and Hayden, mixed with their skill, too- which will be really nice.

- Hank3Henshaw

He seems like a nice guy, so I'm hoping that a team can see value in him and he can get a regular shift on another team.

But the NHL is a cruel, cruel mistress these days. If you don't have the footspeed, wow, you can go from a regular contributor to a guy working at a car dealership in an awful hurry.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 11:37 AM ET
Thanks for the insight.

If the Hawks didn't resign Martinsen, I would have been down on bringing Martin in for some 4th Line work and see what happens. I know he's slow, but some physicality and energy would be great. Hawks should be getting that from Martinsen and Hayden, mixed with their skill, too- which will be really nice.

- Hank3Henshaw


Agreed.

Curious to see if Samueleon's kid can be a surprise at some point. A bust as a first round pick but maybe he can contribute after all. He was a Colliton add or change to lineup after they fell behind in their season ending series. The other add was Tuolola - with was it just one AHL game experience. Interesting to see the progress both kids next season.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 11:38 AM ET
He seems like a nice guy, so I'm hoping that a team can see value in him and he can get a regular shift on another team.

But the NHL is a cruel, cruel mistress these days. If you don't have the footspeed, wow, you can go from a regular contributor to a guy working at a car dealership in an awful hurry.

- Atomic Wedgie


It's funny...I was just going to say the same thing.

The league has changed so much. It's all about speed, skill and finesse.

Guys like Martin are a dying breed (unfortunately). Crazy how years ago the guys who could skate, had hands, etc. were kind of diamonds in the rough. Now, hard-nosed guys that can be physical and go to the tough areas are the hidden gems - and there's not many left.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 11 @ 11:38 AM ET
While I appreciate your well-thought out post, I would categorize Toews for Trouba and Little as closer to "crack armchair GM scenario" than "trade where we can't see the fit that the GM sees."
- Atomic Wedgie

It really depends on how valuable the GM sees Trouba/Little and what else was included on the Hawks side (I assume the #8).
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 11:40 AM ET
It really depends on how valuable the GM sees Trouba/Little and what else was included on the Hawks side (I assume the #8).
- L_B_R


Trouba/Little for Toews (and whatever the sweetener) just feels like an overpay by the Jets in my opinion.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jun 11 @ 11:47 AM ET


Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 11:48 AM ET


- DarthKane


JR - speed/quickness, skill, hands, grit and one helluva engine
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jun 11 @ 11:49 AM ET
JR - speed/quickness, skill, hands, grit and one helluva engine
- Hank3Henshaw

I always franking hated him.

Of course, that was back in the days when the Leafs played the Hawks 8 times a year in the Chuck Norris Division, so you can probably guess why I hated him.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 11:52 AM ET
I always franking hated him.

Of course, that was back in the days when the Leafs played the Hawks 8 times a year in the Chuck Norris Division, so you can probably guess why I hated him.

- Atomic Wedgie


"Chuck Norris Division"

Hey, you guys had Gilmour and Felix, though!
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jun 11 @ 11:52 AM ET
I always franking hated him.

Of course, that was back in the days when the Leafs played the Hawks 8 times a year in the Chuck Norris Division, so you can probably guess why I hated him.

- Atomic Wedgie



I was living in Toronto during those days....I love the Chicago/Toronto rivalry.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 12:01 PM ET
It really depends on how valuable the GM sees Trouba/Little and what else was included on the Hawks side (I assume the #8).
- L_B_R

If that sort of trade happens then Bowman just goes out and signs someone like deHahn. Seabrook and Gus can be spotted wisely with TOI so the defense just stepped up from terrible to acceptable. Bowman adding someone like Little also gives him more options insofar as acquiring a forward - even moving one of our top young forward - - if a young power forward is the return. That being said, I do not expect Bowman is either smart enough nor able to coerce two such trades.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Jun 11 @ 12:03 PM ET
I was living in Toronto during those days....I love the Chicago/Toronto rivalry.
- DarthKane


It was great DK! I felt like it was me vs. Toronto as one of the only Hawks fans in my small town 3 hours north of Toronto. I loved it though!
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 11 @ 12:06 PM ET
I wouldn't worry about Toews. People worry about his salary, but you aren't going to change it and they aren't going to move him. To me, I think the Hawks are more disappointed in Saad and Seabrook last season in terms of earning some of that contract.

In 2017/2018 Toews failed to convert on chances more than anything, but he got more chances and put more rubber on net than almost any other season he has had. (2010/2011 the only year higher). Early in the year there were a number of games where his line was carrying the team but failed to beat the goalie. The chances were there but the shots were not finding that 5 hole or getting over the goalie in many cases. Toews buried chances at about 2/3 his normal rate over the last two years.

Saad was shooting under 8% and Panik less than 6% while out there 5v5 and that doesn't cut it. Panik isn't an NHL top 6 winger and Saad just couldn't seem to figure things out no matter which line he was on. They tried sliding him to play on line 2 with Kane and it was awful.

If they want point production out of Toews it was very obvious they need a play maker on his wing. Toews/Saad are more of the type to finish chances then set them up and Panik is more of the same where he thrived on just being Johnny on the spot to knock in rebounds or chances. It would even help if the D core was getting some shots on net. I thought the Toews line did a lot of going low to high back to the D and the blueline had a bad season at creating any scoring chances with shots from the point because they didn't get shots through.

People may question the leadership or the character of Toews, but that isn't the kind of thing you just lose. It is just noise from a fan base that is struggling to deal with the fact that the Hawks aren't at the top of the pile anymore. I think Toews helped the young guys as most of them had most of their best games while playing on his wing. (Hinostroza, Duclair, Debrincat)

Toews needs to play better, specifically on the powerplay, but the "decline" narrative is shallow and overblown. The Hawks started the rebuild last year, give the team some time to solidify and fix the awful defense. They had much larger issues than the individual play of Toews.

- breadbag


I agree that who plays RW with Saad and Toews is incredibly important to the numbers Saad and Toews put up. I do not think a playmaker like Schmaltz is the answer. You need a scorer too, someone who likes to shoot the puck. Someone defenders need to gravitate towards. A dual threat (pass/shoot). I also think size and physicality matter. Toews was more physical before his concussions. He has scaled it back a bit, and I do not blame him for that. But if he had a physical presence on both wings that might lessen the requirement for Toews to be as physical and it might lessen defenders hacking and hammering Toews if they know there might be payback from one of his wingers. A Hossa clone would be perfect, but they do not exist. But they will try to get someone in that mold.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jun 11 @ 12:06 PM ET
It was great DK! I felt like it was me vs. Toronto as one of the only Hawks fans in my small town 3 hours north of Toronto. I loved it though!
- Justin Lowe



Same for me...although I lived much closer to Toronto (did you grow up with running water and an inside toilet?)



It wasn't until I was in college that I met another Blackhawks fan. Even today there's only one other Blackhawks fan that I know in Vancouver.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 12:11 PM ET
Same for me...although I lived much close to Toronto (did you grow up with running water and an inside toilet?)



It wasn't until I was in college that I met another Blackhawks fan. Even today there's only one other Blackhawks fan that I know in Vancouver.

- DarthKane


Just out of curiosity, what drew you guys to the Hawks? If you grew up in Toronto, how did you become a Hawks fan?
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 12:12 PM ET
I agree that who plays RW with Saad and Toews is incredibly important to the numbers Saad and Toews put up. I do not think a playmaker like Schmaltz is the answer. You need a scorer too, someone who likes to shoot the puck. Someone defenders need to gravitate towards. A dual threat (pass/shoot). I also think size and physicality matter. Toews was more physical before his concussions. He has scaled it back a bit, and I do not blame him for that. But if he had a physical presence on both wings that might lessen the requirement for Toews to be as physical and it might lessen defenders hacking and hammering Toews if they know there might be payback from one of his wingers. A Hossa clone would be perfect, but they do not exist. But they will try to get someone in that mold.
- -Doh-


This makes sense. I am loathe to expect Toews will be this productive; however, it is not unreal to actually occur. After seeing how Panic's response in Arizona, I wish we had him instead of Duclair
riozzo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jun 11 @ 12:13 PM ET
He sucks and is massively overpaid

Case Closed

- RoloTahmasee

DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jun 11 @ 12:14 PM ET
Just out of curiosity, what drew you guys to the Hawks? If you grew up in Toronto, how did you become a Hawks fan?
- Hank3Henshaw


I don't think it was one specific thing. I just saw a lot of Chicago / Toronto games when they were in the same division and gravitated towards them.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 11 @ 12:16 PM ET
I don't think it was one specific thing. I just saw a lot of Chicago / Toronto games when they were in the same division and gravitated towards them.
- DarthKane


Very nice. I'm always curious how people become fans of teams when they're outside of the city/market.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jun 11 @ 12:25 PM ET
If that sort of trade happens then Bowman just goes out and signs someone like deHahn. Seabrook and Gus can be spotted wisely with TOI so the defense just stepped up from terrible to acceptable. Bowman adding someone like Little also gives him more options insofar as acquiring a forward - even moving one of our top young forward - - if a young power forward is the return. That being said, I do not expect Bowman is either smart enough nor able to coerce two such trades.
- jhawk59


Regardless of that trade scenario (I really don't see it happening), I think looking at signing someone like de Haan or Ian Cole would be an option worth pursuing. Not sure what kind of contract they'd be looking for.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jun 11 @ 12:25 PM ET
Eh, Toews really isn't that bad. Aside from AA he was really the only NHL center on the roster and that is just ridiculous.

When they were really good in 2010 you had Madden, Bolland, Toews and then Sharp eventually on the second line.

The second set of runs had Kruger, Bolland, Zeus and Toews.

Then Kruger, Vermette, Rad Brichards and Toews.

The last two years they have really asked him to do too much. Maybe Schmaltz becomes a good NHL center but I wouldn't bet a Cup on it. And AA running the third line is problematic since he can't tilt the ice like Bolland or Vermette. He's fine if he just has to create space, win pucks on the boards and bang in garbage goals but otherwise maybe not the best fit.

At a minimum they need a center who can eat the garbage draws, kill penalties and knock in 35ish points.

Losing AA's money and signing Tavares puts them in a better spot having two top centers. Takes a lot of pressure off and gets them a lot of goals. Even keeping AA and having someone like Statsny or even Filppula to skate 15 minutes a night and flip the ice would be a tremendous help.

Either way, the Hawks need 1 if not 2 veteran centers added to the line up or else you'll see a worn out and frustrated Toews, not dissimilar to how Keith behaves when he has to play with the Oesterles of the league.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 11 @ 12:29 PM ET
Here's a fun non-hockey story

Friend of mine/coworker went golfing solo this weekend here (I live in Vegas). Got put into a group of 3...one of the 3...Mr.OJ Simpson..haha
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