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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: The Case For Trading Jonathan Toews
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Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 13 @ 11:49 AM ET
Saw that, makes you wonder.
- 6628


Then Toews should call it a day and go on LTIR. I say this respectfully. If prior concussions and the chance of further concussions are of such concern that you simply can’t play your game time to leave. I worry about Andrew Shaw too.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 13 @ 11:50 AM ET
Probably the #8, Schmaltz or Debrincat, and then a D prospect in Forsling or Mitchell for Trouba
- PatShart



6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jun 13 @ 11:58 AM ET
Then Toews should call it a day and go on LTIR. I say this respectfully. If prior concussions and the chance of further concussions are of such concern that you simply can’t play your game time to leave. I worry about Andrew Shaw too.
- Z3Hawk



Absolutely
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 13 @ 12:02 PM ET
Dobson may end up with a bit more bite, but Evan Bouchard is not Seabrook tough.

Dobson is a big skinny raw tall smart kid/hockey player. He does all the right things and looks to be a pro player even a captain, but no one can predict accurately if he can be the elite level defender with two way impact beyond average

Griffin Reinhart was/is not hockey head smart besides his being unable to move agile enough to learn the back end.
Just cause a big kid looks pretty and dominant in junior doesn't guarantee NHL superiority.
Compare what I wrote about Reinhardt to the other two,
A big man who skates exceptionally well and has turns. Moves laterally with the fluidity of an average size player. Very cool under pressure and a very good ice general whose vision allows him to make the right play. Rarely beaten one on one due to his size. He has a strong shot from the point and is excellent at reading where to go with the puck. Can pass the puck on offense better than most. His bread and butter is his ability to move the puck up ice using his speed and accurate passing. He uses his size to be an aggressive physical force in his defensive zone, making him a more attractive prospect, filled with upside.

How'd all that work out when he met the speed of the NHL game.
That is why Quinn Hughes is valued so high, and even Boqvist because he is all around quick to at very least understands his end enough to attempt to stay with his check.

- wiz1901


Watched Dobson in the recent Memorial Cup. His team won but it wasn’t because of Dobson. Dobson didn’t set himself apart in the manner that one might expect for someone rated so high. He seemed like just another D-Men on his own team. If didn’t know he was rated so high going in might not have noticed him much at all.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jun 13 @ 12:07 PM ET
If they're going to trade the #8 pick...it'll be to someone in a building situation/ways away from winning that has a vets to trade

So...in my opinion, teams interested in it would be -
OTT
MTL
CAR
Maybe CAL (one of their Dmen)
NYI - if they lose Tavares
NYR

- PatShart


Ottawa would definitely be on the top of the list. I’d want their 22nd pick that they got in trade along with Player xxxxxxxxx.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jun 13 @ 12:11 PM ET
Powers:

Blackhawks have told at least one team they’d trade their #8 in the “right situation”! No explanation on what the “right situation” might be.

- walleyeb1


I'm pretty sure the right situation is a player that can help them now. I believe Bowman expressed that earlier that the Hawks aren't to trade for many long term prospects, but they want guys who are ready to contribute.
ObeseOprah
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.17.2014

Jun 13 @ 12:18 PM ET
wiz - Faulk No! Agree with you totally. Have read other comments that Faulk would drive Q absolutely bananas with his give-aways and poor defensive play.
- Z3Hawk



Disagree, Faulk is a possession positive player on a possession poor team: https://www.hockey-refere.../players/f/faulkju01.html

Plus Minus is crap, most people know this. Faulk has been positive in Corsi and Fenwick, which isn't easy on a team that never makes the playoffs. He's also sub 100 PDO, meaning that his puck luck is likely to improve. Before the emergence of Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, and Fleury, Justin Faulk was looked at as one of the best young defensemen in the league on an outstanding deal.

D-men points are heavily correlated to how much first unit PP time they get. Faulk lost time to the new guys, and his value dropped. He still put up points at Even Strength. The quip about him not playing defense doesn't hold much water, he barely starts more plays in the offensive zone than the defensive zone.

Justin Faulk would be the #2 defenseman on the Hawks, possibly the #1 if he takes Keith's PP spot. I'm a gigantic Keith fan, so saying that he'd ever lose the #1 spot to anyone outside Karlsson is painful. Keith-Faulk top pairing would be scary great.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 13 @ 12:19 PM ET
I am telling you, if you can you STAY in #27... too many good players, b/c of warts (Ryan Merkley) or being Russians that may not make the trip until MUCH later, and long term defensive prospects, and centres who don't right now look like solid guarantee pro second line locks but down the road are more than 3rd line pros.

If you want a nice project as dee, he is there.
You want higher risk maybe super reward take Merkley.

Take a forward if you got a dee man at #8

- wiz1901


I have been talking about Merkley for a while. Actually my favourite wildcard in the Draft. I dare anyone to watch his highlights from the Ivan Hlinka U-18 Tournament and not be blown away by his high-end, makes plays at top speed, skill. As a 16 year-old. Can find these highlights and an interview after winning Gold on the Guelph Storm site. His draft rankings are all over the map - see him in top 10 in spite of “attitude” problems but also see him not listed at all in the First Round. Some team is going to be very smart drafting him early I think.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 13 @ 12:26 PM ET



Absolutely

- 6628


Great interview with Eddie last week (or the week before) on the Score. Surprisingly, 670 was actually talking about hockey when I skimmed by the channel.

Eddie O talked about concussions and how distinctly remembers getting 4 and playing thorough them. He said there could have been more, but the four stick out.

He talked about how in his day they just chalked it up to "getting your bell rung." And how there was sort of a stigma back then that if you didn't suck it up and play, you were considered soft by your peers, coaching staff, etc. Plus...you feared you'd lose your job to the next guy, etc.

He went on to say that, granted, they didn't know all the long-term implications of concussion damage, but now that we do, it's important for guys to just say right away that they don't feel right or need to sit out. Not worth it to be the "tough" guy any more and play with a head injury.

That being said, I watched an interview with Gretzky where he expressed desire to start a league for kids who just want to play, but not necessarily risk serious injury with checking, etc--noting that a lot of kids are intimidated by other kids who mature faster and how there's an uneven distribution throughout youth hockey. It would be interesting to see if he gets the league started.

I could see the NHL being a much different game 10-20 years from now. I think they'll change the rules to where it's more like mens league: no checking, but you can still push/shove/bump and get a little physical along the boards.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 13 @ 12:26 PM ET
Disagree, Faulk is a possession positive player on a possession poor team: https://www.hockey-refere.../players/f/faulkju01.html

Plus Minus is crap, most people know this. Faulk has been positive in Corsi and Fenwick, which isn't easy on a team that never makes the playoffs. He's also sub 100 PDO, meaning that his puck luck is likely to improve. Before the emergence of Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, and Fleury, Justin Faulk was looked at as one of the best young defensemen in the league on an outstanding deal.

D-men points are heavily correlated to how much first unit PP time they get. Faulk lost time to the new guys, and his value dropped. He still put up points at Even Strength. The quip about him not playing defense doesn't hold much water, he barely starts more plays in the offensive zone than the defensive zone.

Justin Faulk would be the #2 defenseman on the Hawks, possibly the #1 if he takes Keith's PP spot. Faulk also had a hat-trick last season, which is as many goals as any Hawks Dman had the entire season.

- ObeseOprah


Faulk is still young and is their Captain. Carolina should view him as untouchable but apparently doesn’t which concerns me. Shouldn’t they be building the team around him? Stats can always be found to make arguments in either direction but the bottom-line is he will make Q crazy and will be benched until he get re-traded for a bag of pucks. Stay away.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 13 @ 12:29 PM ET
Before everyone turns on Faulk now, I'll let BINGO chime in to give us the best assessment of his play/character.

From what I've watched, I think he's a good Defenseman and would be an instant boost to the Hawks blueline.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 13 @ 12:35 PM ET
Same...but that seems more like an equal trade, IMO and I dont think Trouba is available

I think Winnepeg would move Myers before Trouba..or a forward (perrault/little/ehlers) to free up money to keep Trouba at 24 and a RHD

- PatShart

That isn't an equal trade to me. Top pairing RD for a #8 + young 2C/2W + almost 30 goal scoring rookie + one of the better d-prospects is really skewed. Yes, top 4 RD are valuable but that is overkill.

Hamilton is maybe one of the more comparable trades recently - return was all picks with #15, #45 and #52 from the same draft. Trouba is better than Hamilton, but not so much better that he should pull in dramatically different a haul. Value in a #8 vs #15 is decent, especially in a better draft; Schmaltz and Debrincat, as more established players, are obviously better than two 2nds. Not fair value imo.
ObeseOprah
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.17.2014

Jun 13 @ 12:36 PM ET
I have been talking about Merkley for a while. Actually my favourite wildcard in the Draft. I dare anyone to watch his highlights from the Ivan Hlinka U-18 Tournament and not be blown away by his high-end, makes plays at top speed, skill. As a 16 year-old. Can find these highlights and an interview after winning Gold on the Guelph Storm site. His draft rankings are all over the map - see him in top 10 in spite of “attitude” problems but also see him not listed at all in the First Round. Some team is going to be very smart drafting him early I think.
- Z3Hawk


Merkley is certainly a wild-card, but I don't think he'll be there by #27. Some team in the late teens or 20-25 will let their GM bask in his 'bold steal' of getting Merkley.
There's also multiple teams with their second pick before the Hawks get to 27: NYI, PHI, NYR.

Personally, I don't like him that much. There's plenty of talented Dmen in the first round who don't have every scout going 'but look out'. If we take a dman at #8 we'll have him, Joki, Mitchell, Krys, and a couple others that fill the pipeline. I will always suggest 'Best Player Available' but maybe we should use #27 on a forward. After Sikura it becomes a large number of guys who have some tools but no sure things. There's Kahun, Knott, Hayton, Johnson, Ejdsell, Soderlund, and a handful of other guys.

Now that Debrincat is fully established and Schmaltz is entering his third year of prime time, maybe it's time to restock forwards now that Sikura is 'the next one'.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 13 @ 12:37 PM ET
That isn't an equal trade to me. Top pairing RD for a #8 + young 2C/2W + almost 30 goal scoring rookie + one of the better d-prospects is really skewed. Yes, top 4 RD are valuable but that is overkill.

Hamilton is maybe one of the more comparable trades recently - return was all picks with #15, #45 and #52 from the same draft. Trouba is better than Hamilton, but not so much better that he should pull in dramatically different a haul. Value in a #8 vs #15 is decent, especially in a better draft; Schmaltz and Debrincat, as more established players, are obviously better than two 2nds. Not fair value imo.

- L_B_R


If the Hawks traded the 8th pick + Schmaltz or Cat + top prospect for Trouba, that would be outrageous.

I like Trouba, but talk about an extreme overpayment IMO.

Moving the Cat would be a terrible idea. Next to 88, I think he's the most valuable offensive weapon they have.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 13 @ 12:40 PM ET
If the Hawks traded the 8th pick + Schmaltz or Cat + top prospect for Trouba, that would be outrageous.

I like Trouba, but talk about an extreme overpayment IMO.

Moving the Cat would be a terrible idea. Next to 88, I think he's the most valuable offensive weapon they have.

- Hank3Henshaw

Schmaltz is more valuable than Debrincat imo. I don't know if he's a true center in the NHL or not, but the possibility alone makes him more valuable. Plus he is more balanced offensively cause he's a playmaker.
ObeseOprah
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.17.2014

Jun 13 @ 12:42 PM ET
Faulk is still young and is their Captain. Carolina should view him as untouchable but apparently doesn’t which concerns me. Shouldn’t they be building the team around him? Stats can always be found to make arguments in either direction but the bottom-line is he will make Q crazy and will be benched until he get re-traded for a bag of pucks. Stay away.
- Z3Hawk


New management Carolina is evaluating everyone's trade value, Faulk is only expendable because Carolina probably has the best young D core in the league. Pesce and Slavin has really been phenomenal, add in really skilled guys like Hanifin and Pesce and your 'old' guy Faulk becomes less valuable.

Faulk would not be benched by Q, he's an established all-star level defenseman, which is different than Daley, Murphy, Leddy, and the other Dmen who've found themselves in the dog house. The market is low on Faulk for likely the only time, I'd strike while the iron is hot. Like I said, his numbers are very good, his reputation backs that up. I don't know why you wouldn't buy low on a guy who's suddenly a surplus on a team.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 13 @ 12:44 PM ET
Schmaltz is more valuable than Debrincat imo. I don't know if he's a true center in the NHL or not, but the possibility alone makes him more valuable. Plus he is more balanced offensively cause he's a playmaker.
- L_B_R


I said either Schmaltz or Debrincat, not both

But I'm sure it would cost #8 pick AND EITHER Schmaltz or Debrincat for Trouba...definitely not just a pick and a "maybe prospect"
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 13 @ 12:44 PM ET
Schmaltz is more valuable than Debrincat imo. I don't know if he's a true center in the NHL or not, but the possibility alone makes him more valuable. Plus he is more balanced offensively cause he's a playmaker.
- L_B_R


Interesting take.

I think Schmaltz is extremely talented. I think what Debrincat has that Schmaltz lacks a bit is that killer instinct. For as small as the Cat is, that guy will play physical and does whatever it takes to finish.

We'll see how his sophomore year goes, though.
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 13 @ 12:46 PM ET
I think people are reading into Bowman's statement about the 8th pick a little too much.

To me, what he said is exactly what every GM is thinking. If the "right situation" arises, most teams would move their pick.

I think it was just a blanket (obvious) statement more than anything.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 13 @ 12:49 PM ET
I think people are reading into Bowman's statement about the 8th pick a little too much.

To me, what he said is exactly what every GM is thinking. If the "right situation" arises, most teams would move their pick.

I think it was just a blanket (obvious) statement more than anything.

- Hank3Henshaw


Agree. Its smart to say its available to see if a team offers something of value, but I doubt its moved
Matt Ross
Joined: 03.15.2013

Jun 13 @ 12:51 PM ET
Agree. Its smart to say its available to see if a team offers something of value, but I doubt its moved
- PatShart


100%.

I think it was just a "gimmick" in a sense to get the feelers out there and see what teams bite with what offers.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 13 @ 12:52 PM ET
Merkley is certainly a wild-card, but I don't think he'll be there by #27. Some team in the late teens or 20-25 will let their GM bask in his 'bold steal' of getting Merkley.
There's also multiple teams with their second pick before the Hawks get to 27: NYI, PHI, NYR.

Personally, I don't like him that much. There's plenty of talented Dmen in the first round who don't have every scout going 'but look out'. If we take a dman at #8 we'll have him, Joki, Mitchell, Krys, and a couple others that fill the pipeline. I will always suggest 'Best Player Available' but maybe we should use #27 on a forward. After Sikura it becomes a large number of guys who have some tools but no sure things. There's Kahun, Knott, Hayton, Johnson, Ejdsell, Soderlund, and a handful of other guys.

Now that Debrincat is fully established and Schmaltz is entering his third year of prime time, maybe it's time to restock forwards now that Sikura is 'the next one'.

- ObeseOprah


Interestingly, Merkley excels on the international stage where he has no “attitudinal” problems. The Coach and GM of the Guelph Storm has lead them consistently to poor seasons. I think Merkley doesn’t like losing and tries to do too much. As a “problem child” he won OHL Rookie of the Year as a 16 year-old. Some respected hockey people still have him higher in the First Round - how high would he be without attitudinal problems? I’m blowing by any perceived attitudinal problems and going with his high skill and skating thinking he’s a very young guy.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 13 @ 12:59 PM ET
I said either Schmaltz or Debrincat, not both

But I'm sure it would cost #8 pick AND EITHER Schmaltz or Debrincat for Trouba...definitely not just a pick and a "maybe prospect"

- PatShart


When did Trouba become All-World? The #8 pick AND DeBrincat or Schmaltz. So to re-state the #8 pick and DeBrincat OR the #8 pick and Schmaltz? No possible way would the Hawks ever make this trade.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 13 @ 1:00 PM ET
When did Trouba become All-World? The #8 pick AND DeBrincat or Schmaltz. So to re-state the #8 pick and DeBrincat OR the #8 pick and Schmaltz? No possible way would the Hawks ever make this trade.
- Z3Hawk


Just as I dont think Winnepeg trades Trouba AND Lowry for the #8 alone...as suggested
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 13 @ 1:02 PM ET
When did Trouba become All-World? The #8 pick AND DeBrincat or Schmaltz. So to re-state the #8 pick and DeBrincat OR the #8 pick and Schmaltz? No possible way would the Hawks ever make this trade.
- Z3Hawk


#8, Forsling, Sikura, Hossa for Erik Karlsson
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