Sam Hitchcock: Lessons Lightning Can Learn from Cup Finalists

Good write up!

tampa really needs a cup or this string of awesome seasons and deep playoff runs won't mean anything for this groups legacy. It definitely is good business wise, but not "on-ice" was. I used to think back in 2015 once this group won 1 cup they'd be the next hawks or pens and whip out a whole lot of them in the 5-6 years to come but now I am not so sure considering they've been on deep deep runs 3 of the past 4 years and likely don't have it in them to pull out another 5-6 deep runs in a row. Especially with such an injury prone bottom 6 with callahan and erne and paquette etc. Although credit to Callahan for his playoffs this season with his shoulder injury.

The Lightning are on the hook for Palat, Johnson, and Killorn for four or more seasons. All three of those players are exiting their scoring primes, and they do not possess the transcendent, disruptive talent that Kucherov or Hedman possess (although if I could keep any of the trio it would be Johnson).

Palat is by far the best player of those three.

Was wondering when there would be a new Lightning blog. Killorn would be the first that I would move out of those three.

Johnson, Miller, and McDonagh for Karlsson and Hoffman

no thanks, we need to rebuild (again).

btw, doesn't Callahan's contract finishes in 2020 and not 2021?

btw, doesn't Callahan's contract finishes in 2020 and not 2021?
- DutchSenators

He has just two years left, this coming up season 18-19 and then 19-20. Since he is on injured reserve they can't do anything with him yet but he has a modified NTC that goes into effect now, I believe he has to give the Lightning a list of 15 teams he can't be traded to. He will be gone by 19-20 season somehow someway to help pay for the Kuch, Point and possible McDonagh extensions.

Johnson is the interesting character for the Bolts. Do they trade him now before his NTC kicks in, if they do how will that sit with other prospective free agents knowing the Bolts gave out this long term deal but moved him in less then a year.

I don't know what will happen with Miller, unless he takes a 1 or 2 year deal for reasonable money I don't see how they can keep him long term.

He has just two years left, this coming up season 18-19 and then 19-20. Since he is on injured reserve they can't do anything with him yet but he has a modified NTC that goes into effect now, I believe he has to give the Lightning a list of 15 teams he can't be traded to. He will be gone by 19-20 season somehow someway to help pay for the Kuch, Point and possible McDonagh extensions.

Johnson is the interesting character for the Bolts. Do they trade him now before his NTC kicks in, if they do how will that sit with other prospective free agents knowing the Bolts gave out this long term deal but moved him in less then a year.

I don't know what will happen with Miller, unless he takes a 1 or 2 year deal for reasonable money I don't see how they can keep him long term.
- stammerman

Dont think Miller will sign anything less then 5 years. I was looking at some compareables the other day:

Zibanejad - 5yr/5.3
Nidoreiter - 5yr/5.25
Johnson - 7yr/5
Palat - 5yr/5.3
Killorn - 7yr/4.45

All of those guys had about same production as Miller (except Nino who makes up for it on defense) and are the same age, RFA and so on. Miller comes from consecutive 1 and 2 year deals in NY, he probably wants a big pay day now. I dont see us resigning him for less then 5x5.

Lightning have 46M cap for 19-20 with 8 forwards
Stamkos, Callahan, Palat, TyJo, Killorn, Raddysh, Cirelli, Katchouk (last 3 best case scenario)
And 2 defensemen
Hedman, Sergachev
And 1 goalie
Vasilevskiy

Let's say you resign the following for money:
Kucherov - 9M
Point - 6M
Miller - 5M
Gourde - 3.5M
Paquette - 1.5M
McDonagh - 6M
Stralman - 4M
Dotchin - 2M
2 Dmen - 3M
back-up goalie - 2M.

That would be a 88M cap hit, which is not bad. Let Stralman walk and you are probably close to the cap. Year after with Vasilevskiy and Sergachev coming up you might want to try and dump a contract like Killorn.

Lightning have 46M cap for 19-20 with 8 forwards
Stamkos, Callahan, Palat, TyJo, Killorn, Raddysh, Cirelli, Katchouk (last 3 best case scenario)
And 2 defensemen
Hedman, Sergachev
And 1 goalie
Vasilevskiy

Let's say you resign the following for money:
Kucherov - 9M
Point - 6M
Miller - 5M
Gourde - 3.5M
Paquette - 1.5M
McDonagh - 6M
Stralman - 4M
Dotchin - 2M
2 Dmen - 3M
back-up goalie - 2M.

That would be a 88M cap hit, which is not bad. Let Stralman walk and you are probably close to the cap. Year after with Vasilevskiy and Sergachev coming up you might want to try and dump a contract like Killorn.
- DutchSenators

I assume your are talking about next summer.

Your are assuming lots of hometown discounts.. Kuch will probably be 10m atleast, Point will only sign a bridge for 6m. Long term, look at Draisatl and Kuznetsov, bot making over 7.5 with similar numbers. Dotchin will probably not be back for 2, he has fallen alot and what he brings could be replaced cheaper then that. McD probably wont sign for 6, more like 7.

Atleast one big contact has to go next summer, the good thing is that we have lots of good prospects coming up that could produce middle6 minutes in two years

Dont think Miller will sign anything less then 5 years. I was looking at some compareables the other day:

Zibanejad - 5yr/5.3
Nidoreiter - 5yr/5.25
Johnson - 7yr/5
Palat - 5yr/5.3
Killorn - 7yr/4.45

All of those guys had about same production as Miller (except Nino who makes up for it on defense) and are the same age, RFA and so on. Miller comes from consecutive 1 and 2 year deals in NY, he probably wants a big pay day now. I dont see us resigning him for less then 5x5.
- Cloud

I totally understand that Miller's comparable are 5X5.5 but I don't think the Lightning can give him that deal with the contracts that are coming up that are more important so it would not shock me if he was moved.

Lightning have 46M cap for 19-20 with 8 forwards
Stamkos, Callahan, Palat, TyJo, Killorn, Raddysh, Cirelli, Katchouk (last 3 best case scenario)
And 2 defensemen
Hedman, Sergachev
And 1 goalie
Vasilevskiy

Let's say you resign the following for money:
Kucherov - 9M
Point - 6M
Miller - 5M
Gourde - 3.5M
Paquette - 1.5M
McDonagh - 6M
Stralman - 4M
Dotchin - 2M
2 Dmen - 3M
back-up goalie - 2M.

That would be a 88M cap hit, which is not bad. Let Stralman walk and you are probably close to the cap. Year after with Vasilevskiy and Sergachev coming up you might want to try and dump a contract like Killorn.
- DutchSenators

for cookies

Johnson, Miller, and McDonagh for Karlsson and Hoffman
- Feds91Stammer

I feel like this is not a fair trade for the sens

I feel like this is not a fair trade for the sens
- RileyB77

I've seen worse deals and at least Johnson is locked up long term and Miller is a RFA. Karlsson only has 1 year and Hoffman only has 2. Probably not good odds OTT keeps either of them.