RFA vs. UFA ...big difference on the open market.
- The Law

the comp is Nylanders current deal vs Robertson

willy signed for 8.76% of the cap after 2 60 points seasons..6 year deal
Robertson signed for 9.39% after a 40 goals season..but for only 4 years

but Willy will be a UFA and Rob will still be an RFA at the end of the deals

I do, yes. I have been saying the team has been mismanaged for years. Shanahan is clearly part of that. The way things ended with Dubas was bush league on both sides and makes Shanahan look incompetent.
- fifty__missions

Ok, wasn't sure as I have seen you posting things like Dubas has handcuffed the incoming GM with no acknowledgement that it very well could have been Shanny alone or a combination of Shanny and Dubas.

You always have been (and continue to be ) quick to rip on Dubas but I don't recall seeing much from you ripping on the guy who has been the VP for a decade and is about to be on his 3rd GM and likely 3rd coach is all.

Good to know you hold him at least equally accountable for the current position the Leafs are in. Probably time to shift the target to him no?

And yes the way things ended with Dubas make MLSE look incompetent AF.

Point being even with that.

GM's are going to look and say Willy you want a 20% premium of a guy who is 24 and gives stars 40+ goals a yr and is signed for 4 more yrs @ 7.75 - explain to us why you deserve that.

He could be in for a reality check - maybe...

- dozerD10

He'll say look at Skinner and Kyrou and Thomas and Gaudreau and Barzal and Huberdeau ....

I hope it works out well but Robertson's $$ in UFA would be 9.5$ + ...

Lets hope he gets symbolic and wants 8 x 8.8. If not ...take him shopping.

the comp is Nylanders current deal vs Robertson

willy signed for 8.76% of the cap after 2 60 points seasons..6 year deal
Robertson signed for 9.39% after a 40 goals season..but for only 4 years

but Willy will be a UFA and Rob will still be an RFA at the end of the deals
- senstroll

I think he's saying he should accept 7.5 or something now b/c of Robertsons deal.

I think he's saying he should accept 7.5 or something now b/c of Robertsons deal.
- The Law

i know, but that makes no sense

i know, but that makes no sense
- senstroll

I'm with you.

Willie knows some warm weather team will hand him 9.5 per (give or take).

If they want him to stay though I think they need him to accept a bit less.

Ok, wasn't sure as I have seen you posting things like Dubas has handcuffed the incoming GM with no acknowledgement that it very well could have been Shanny alone or a combination of Shanny and Dubas.

You always have been (and continue to be ) quick to rip on Dubas but I don't recall seeing much from you ripping on the guy who has been the VP for a decade and is about to be on his 3rd GM and likely 3rd coach is all.

Good to know you hold him at least equally accountable for the current position the Leafs are in. Probably time to shift the target to him no?

And yes the way things ended with Dubas make MLSE look incompetent AF.
- Cush29

To be fair to Shanahan, he has only been responsible for two direct coaching hires: Mike Babcock and Sheldon Keefe.

Per GMs, he was responsible for hiring Lou Lams but that contract specified 3 years in the GM position with a transition to a special advisory role. Dubas, who I believe was always on the short track for the position, was then installed as GM.

Having said that, I feel like Shanahan mistakenly bought into the skill/possession/analytics strategy and didn't course correct quickly enough. He should have recognized that this core, with 4 highly skilled (but soft) forwards, soaking up half of the cap was not a recipe for success.

Suffice it to say, he's certainly on a short leash at this point.

I'm with you.

Willie knows some warm weather team will hand him 9.5 per (give or take).

If they want him to stay though I think they need him to accept a bit less.
- The Law

If I was him I wouldnt. But as a fan I can hope he takes a value deal.
if he signed a 7x9.5 deal = 66.5
if he signed 8.8 with the leafs hes leaving 5 mill on the table. (ill ignore 7/8 year)

thats ignoring any tax stuff.
i guess it just comes down to if he wants to stay with the leafs

but imo, Willy is the only one who has out played his deal. Marner/AM still owe some money back

I'm with you.

Willie knows some warm weather team will hand him 9.5 per (give or take).

If they want him to stay though I think they need him to accept a bit less.
- The Law

Yup. Nylander will, no doubt, be signing between 9-9.5M.

If I was him I wouldnt. But as a fan I can hope he takes a value deal.
if he signed a 7x9.5 deal = 66.5
if he signed 8.8 with the leafs hes leaving 5 mill on the table. (ill ignore 7/8 year)

thats ignoring any tax stuff.
i guess it just comes down to if he wants to stay with the leafs

but imo, Willy is the only one who has out played his deal. Marner/AM still owe some money back
- senstroll

AM34 has won 2 Richards, a Hart, a Pearson, and a first team all-star selection. I think he's played up to his contract for sure.

Marner? Nope.

none of the candidates available are better than Dubas

It was a mistake not to re-up him

If I was him I wouldnt. But as a fan I can hope he takes a value deal.
if he signed a 7x9.5 deal = 66.5
if he signed 8.8 with the leafs hes leaving 5 mill on the table. (ill ignore 7/8 year)

thats ignoring any tax stuff.
i guess it just comes down to if he wants to stay with the leafs

but imo, Willy is the only one who has out played his deal. Marner/AM still owe some money back
- senstroll

I'm going to argue with own argument here ...just for interest.

If I'm the Leafs I put Larkin, Hertl, Horvat, Forsberg, and Zibanajad on the table as comps ...all signed for 8.2 - 8.7 range.

Gaudreau is probably his high end comparable (high scoring winger). But JG was coming off a nuts year and only did 7 years. 8th year plus signing a year early should equate to some discount.

If he thinks 66.5 on a 7 yr deal on the open market is his best day then maybe 8 x 8.5 works for him now?

none of the candidates available are better than Dubas

It was a mistake not to re-up him
- twiztedmike

Nah.

Yup. Nylander will, no doubt, be signing between 9-9.5M.
- mjones242

Ignore me ..i might be walking myself back on this.

What's his best day ever on the open market? 7 x 10M if he has a killer year?

Leafs could do 8 x 8.5 and match the total dollars. Throw a bunch of bonus and upfront money at him ..And, he gets to sign it now rather than wait a year (reduce risk) ...maybe?

AM34 has won 2 Richards, a Hart, a Pearson, and a first team all-star selection. I think he's played up to his contract for sure.

Marner? Nope.
- mjones242

i guess on AM, but imo...its the 5 year part that stinks.

To be fair to Shanahan, he has only been responsible for two direct coaching hires: Mike Babcock and Sheldon Keefe.

Per GMs, he was responsible for hiring Lou Lams but that contract specified 3 years in the GM position with a transition to a special advisory role. Dubas, who I believe was always on the short track for the position, was then installed as GM.

Having said that, I feel like Shanahan mistakenly bought into the skill/possession/analytics strategy and didn't course correct quickly enough. He should have recognized that this core, with 4 highly skilled (but soft) forwards, soaking up half of the cap was not a recipe for success.

Suffice it to say, he's certainly on a short leash at this point.
- mjones242

I couldn't disagree with the notion that this is a mistake more. You can have highly skilled forwards who are not physically aggressive and be successful (Rantanen, Makar, Kucherov, Point, O'Reilly, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Kessel, Crosby, Kane, and on). In the above list, by the way, O'Reilly almost never hit anyone on the road the the Blues' cup, he just won battles on the boards; Makar and Rantanen throw "hits", but not hits, as we all know.

Florida is on a tear because of Bobrovsky. Not lost here is that Tkachuk is leading the way for the team offensively, but that's not because he's playing mean or throwing a bunch of hits - it's because he's playing in the tough areas and staying in the tough areas, but also because he, like Verhaeghe and Barkov who are also leading the way, are skilled players.

The idea that skill & possession is a mistake or that analytics don't help evaluate talent and identify growing talent is an archaic sentiment at best. All teams that win have this in abundance. The notion that the Dubas management team relied solely on analytics is also a misnomer. The idea that their strategy leaned too heavily into skill in the beginning is not - but the team's periphery changed around the core to develop more toughness as they identified their needs. I will say that analytics fail to evaluate how another player's size, strength, or distraction on the ice makes a player better.

What they are missing is a bit more of a net front element - a guy who can soak up that punishment and push back and be a distraction and a benefit in front of the net. To me, for instance, Tkachuk is James Van Riemsdyk with speed and an edge. The desire for the net, the willingness to be there, the great hands, but also the ability to both fight back and make plays at speed. But even a Van Riemsdyk in his prime or a Franzen / Holmstrom (help me out here, is that who I'm thinking of? Not a great player, but played for Detroit for most if his career and lived on the edge of the crease -- Edit: Hornqvist! That's who I'm thinking of and he never played a moment for Detroit, so thanks for playing along at home!) would help this team because it would create room for the skill to operate.

I know this is long, but to sort of agree - Kane & DeBrincat together were nullified in the playoffs often, but when they were given large players to surround them, they were excellent because they had "suddenly" room to move. Two guys like that and the Leafs might have 3 lines that could pop.

i know, but that makes no sense
- senstroll

i'm looking at it from what I think other GMs will open with... Now Willy could say cap is going up and this is what I bring.. GM's aren't going to use the higher paid players to start negotiations... they are going to point to the guy they thing they can leverage 88 with.

I couldn't disagree with the notion that this is a mistake more. You can have highly skilled forwards who are not physically aggressive and be successful (Rantanen, Makar, Kucherov, Point, O'Reilly, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Kessel, Crosby, Kane, and on). In the above list, by the way, O'Reilly almost never hit anyone on the road the the Blues' cup, he just won battles on the boards; Makar and Rantanen throw "hits", but not hits, as we all know.

Florida is on a tear because of Bobrovsky. Not lost here is that Tkachuk is leading the way for the team offensively, but that's not because he's playing mean or throwing a bunch of hits - it's because he's playing in the tough areas and staying in the tough areas, but also because he, like Verhaeghe and Barkov who are also leading the way, are skilled players.

The idea that skill & possession is a mistake or that analytics don't help evaluate talent and identify growing talent is an archaic sentiment at best. All teams that win have this in abundance. The notion that the Dubas management team relied solely on analytics is also a misnomer. The idea that their strategy leaned too heavily into skill in the beginning is not - but the team's periphery changed around the core to develop more toughness as they identified their needs. I will say that analytics fail to evaluate how another player's size, strength, or distraction on the ice makes a player better.

What they are missing is a bit more of a net front element - a guy who can soak up that punishment and push back and be a distraction and a benefit in front of the net. To me, for instance, Tkachuk is James Van Riemsdyk with speed and an edge. The desire for the net, the willingness to be there, the great hands, but also the ability to both fight back and make plays at speed. But even a Van Riemsdyk in his prime or a Franzen / Holmstrom (help me out here, is that who I'm thinking of? Not a great player, but played for Detroit for most if his career and lived on the edge of the crease) would help this team because it would create room for the skill to operate.

I know this is long, but to sort of agree - Kane & DeBrincat together were nullified in the playoffs often, but when they were given large players to surround them, they were excellent because they had "suddenly" room to move. Two guys like that and the Leafs might have 3 lines that could pop.
- Monkeypunk

I think you may have missed the part where I mentioned locking up half of your cap into 4 skill/possession players is the mistake.

I never suggested that skill/possession/analytics should be ignored and/or mothballed for a more "truculent" old-time hockey approach. The tacit implication was that there should be a balance of skill/possession with truculence/physicality.

Hope that clears things up!

Ignore me ..i might be walking myself back on this.

What's his best day ever on the open market? 7 x 10M if he has a killer year?

Leafs could do 8 x 8.5 and match the total dollars. Throw a bunch of bonus and upfront money at him ..And, he gets to sign it now rather than wait a year (reduce risk) ...maybe?
- The Law

I'm thinking Laine (8.7M) and Hintz (8.45M) might be good comparables for Willie. Both were signed last season, and with the cap rising, I see 9M as a final destination.

Bonus up front would likely be the play Nylander will want - as mercenary as he may (or may not?) be, I think once he signs he wants as much pain as possible for a team contemplating moving him further down the line. (though maybe that's simply mitigated by a full NTC/NMC)

I think you may have missed the part where I mentioned locking up half of your cap into 4 skill/possession players is the mistake.

I never suggested that skill/possession/analytics should be ignored and/or mothballed for a more "truculent" old-time hockey approach. The tacit implication was that there should be a balance of skill/possession with truculence/physicality.

Hope that clears things up!
- mjones242

My apologies. I read one paragraph and had no context from backreading.

I don't think the approach they wanted to take was wrong, by the way. The tea leaves in the NHL in 2017 really read that the game was shifting to a more skilled environment. There was continuing talk about how the rule changes in the NHL were allowing smaller players with skill to excel. People were quite happy in general about it because it became a better game to watch with guys like McDavid showing insane end-to-end plays on a shift-by-shift basis. I think a lot may have been stemmed from the back-to-back cups fronted by guys like Crosby and Kessel and Malkin.

Now the problem with the above is that this was really public opinion and also media supported. It's quite clearly not what the old boys club behind the scenes wanted, because as we've seen over the past 4 or 5 years, the playoffs are back to being very intense, very physical, but also heavily interference-laden.

I think one of the biggest mistakes the Dubas management team made was believing that this was the trend. Despite Pittsburgh or Washington's success, there wasn't a ton of empirical evidence to support a softening game, but there was hype to support the sentiment (other mistakes which aren't as easily remedied: not landing a #1 goalie, not landing a #1 defender). I still believe in the core, but I'm also not adverse to change. I just want any change to have a direct impact on those needs.

My apologies. I read one paragraph and had no context from backreading.

I don't think the approach they wanted to take was wrong, by the way. The tea leaves in the NHL in 2017 really read that the game was shifting to a more skilled environment. There was continuing talk about how the rule changes in the NHL were allowing smaller players with skill to excel. People were quite happy in general about it because it became a better game to watch with guys like McDavid showing insane end-to-end plays on a shift-by-shift basis. I think a lot may have been stemmed from the back-to-back cups fronted by guys like Crosby and Kessel and Malkin.

Now the problem with the above is that this was really public opinion and also media supported. It's quite clearly not what the old boys club behind the scenes wanted, because as we've seen over the past 4 or 5 years, the playoffs are back to being very intense, very physical, but also heavily interference-laden.

I think one of the biggest mistakes the Dubas management team made was believing that this was the trend. Despite Pittsburgh or Washington's success, there wasn't a ton of empirical evidence to support a softening game, but there was hype to support the sentiment (other mistakes which aren't as easily remedied: not landing a #1 goalie, not landing a #1 defender). I still believe in the core, but I'm also not adverse to change. I just want any change to have a direct impact on those needs.
- Monkeypunk

Malkin and Crosby when on their game aren't shrinking violets. Malkin is a dirty (frank) and 6'4. Crosby has legs the size of mount Olympus and will fight to the death for every puck.

Like you say, it's not about having a team of goons, it's about your stars being able to fight to the death. Kucherov is maybe 5'11 and Point 5'9, but both will fight to the death and pull poop guys twice their size would without batting an eye.

I'm thinking Laine (8.7M) and Hintz (8.45M) might be good comparables for Willie. Both were signed last season, and with the cap rising, I see 9M as a final destination.

Bonus up front would likely be the play Nylander will want - as mercenary as he may (or may not?) be, I think once he signs he wants as much pain as possible for a team contemplating moving him further down the line. (though maybe that's simply mitigated by a full NTC/NMC)
- mjones242

I like the Hintz comparable. Hintz has never had quite the same offensive output as Willy, but he does have a more valuable defensive game. If you look at Dom's GSVA model for the 22-23 season on the Athletic, Hintz has a 3.4 GSVA for the year and Willy is 3.3. Those, by the way, are very solid numbers - putting Nylander 7th among right wingers, and Hintz 6th in the same group (funny thing about Hintz - the Athletic lists him and Nylander as Centres, Hockey-Reference lists him as a LW and he played the year exclusively at RW).

I couldn't disagree with the notion that this is a mistake more. You can have highly skilled forwards who are not physically aggressive and be successful (Rantanen, Makar, Kucherov, Point, O'Reilly, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Kessel, Crosby, Kane, and on). In the above list, by the way, O'Reilly almost never hit anyone on the road the the Blues' cup, he just won battles on the boards; Makar and Rantanen throw "hits", but not hits, as we all know.

Florida is on a tear because of Bobrovsky. Not lost here is that Tkachuk is leading the way for the team offensively, but that's not because he's playing mean or throwing a bunch of hits - it's because he's playing in the tough areas and staying in the tough areas, but also because he, like Verhaeghe and Barkov who are also leading the way, are skilled players.

The idea that skill & possession is a mistake or that analytics don't help evaluate talent and identify growing talent is an archaic sentiment at best. All teams that win have this in abundance. The notion that the Dubas management team relied solely on analytics is also a misnomer. The idea that their strategy leaned too heavily into skill in the beginning is not - but the team's periphery changed around the core to develop more toughness as they identified their needs. I will say that analytics fail to evaluate how another player's size, strength, or distraction on the ice makes a player better.

What they are missing is a bit more of a net front element - a guy who can soak up that punishment and push back and be a distraction and a benefit in front of the net. To me, for instance, Tkachuk is James Van Riemsdyk with speed and an edge. The desire for the net, the willingness to be there, the great hands, but also the ability to both fight back and make plays at speed. But even a Van Riemsdyk in his prime or a Franzen / Holmstrom (help me out here, is that who I'm thinking of? Not a great player, but played for Detroit for most if his career and lived on the edge of the crease -- Edit: Hornqvist! That's who I'm thinking of and he never played a moment for Detroit, so thanks for playing along at home!) would help this team because it would create room for the skill to operate.

I know this is long, but to sort of agree - Kane & DeBrincat together were nullified in the playoffs often, but when they were given large players to surround them, they were excellent because they had "suddenly" room to move. Two guys like that and the Leafs might have 3 lines that could pop.
- Monkeypunk

I agree and I've been saying the same for the most part. You can win with these guys ..but the balance is off.

But other than Point, Kessel and Kane I'd argue the other guys on your list are different than 88 and 16. The other guys play with a bigger 'battle' mentality. Kucherov is ferocious and initiates poop all the time. None of those guys take a face wash or face punch without some significant push back. Matty's shown growth in that area I think but 16 in particular needs to show some fight (not actually fight).

I think we need a couple of different bodies (probably bigger) in the top 6 mix but I also think the big 3 need to find the next level of "tough" ..ala Mackinnon and mcdavid.

Malkin and Crosby when on their game aren't shrinking violets. Malkin is a dirty (frank) and 6'4. Crosby has legs the size of mount Olympus and will fight to the death for every puck.

Like you say, it's not about having a team of goons, it's about your stars being able to fight to the death. Kucherov is maybe 5'11 and Point 5'9, but both will fight to the death and pull poop guys twice their size would without batting an eye.
- AdamFrench

JT will use size and strength in board battles, the rest not so much. Even though Matthews has shown a bit more readiness to use his size, he and Marner tend to rely on their quick sticks and positioning to win back pucks. Guys they’ve brought in to play with them haven’t up the dial much. Maybe Knies brings more. Their choices now are to use some cap flexibility to add some grittier top six presence or trade a core guy for some. If the latter, they need to not lose the trade.

My apologies. I read one paragraph and had no context from backreading.

I don't think the approach they wanted to take was wrong, by the way. The tea leaves in the NHL in 2017 really read that the game was shifting to a more skilled environment. There was continuing talk about how the rule changes in the NHL were allowing smaller players with skill to excel. People were quite happy in general about it because it became a better game to watch with guys like McDavid showing insane end-to-end plays on a shift-by-shift basis. I think a lot may have been stemmed from the back-to-back cups fronted by guys like Crosby and Kessel and Malkin.

Now the problem with the above is that this was really public opinion and also media supported. It's quite clearly not what the old boys club behind the scenes wanted, because as we've seen over the past 4 or 5 years, the playoffs are back to being very intense, very physical, but also heavily interference-laden.

I think one of the biggest mistakes the Dubas management team made was believing that this was the trend. Despite Pittsburgh or Washington's success, there wasn't a ton of empirical evidence to support a softening game, but there was hype to support the sentiment (other mistakes which aren't as easily remedied: not landing a #1 goalie, not landing a #1 defender). I still believe in the core, but I'm also not adverse to change. I just want any change to have a direct impact on those needs.
- Monkeypunk

The paragraph you quoted I explicitly mentioned locking up half of the cap into the Core 4. Having said that, I should have lead with that caveat rather than followed it up with it - admittedly, it was a bit confusing and I can see how the initial reaction was to assume a completely archaic take.

Something else to consider: I don't think it can be stated enough that the sudden cap freeze put a significant strain on long term plans for this team that were unanticipated by Dubas. I doubt he had intended for half of the cap to be locked up into 4 skilled forwards season-over-season, but it certainly did create a flawed, top-heavy roster construction that had to be carefully navigated.

Definitely agree that a perceived transition from traditional "truculent" hockey to a more skill-based style seemed to be picking up traction. I'm not sure if obstruction/interference ladened playoff hockey has increased in recent years or if it's simply confirmation bias as the Leafs have been ground down every year.

Per Sidney Crosby, while he undoubtedly has superstar skills I think he may be the most underrated grinder in the entire league - his grit is astonishingly underappreciated.