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The Athletic
16 Stats: Sabres’ playoff push, Jakob Chychrun’s value, Zach Hyman’s hot streak
VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 21: Left wing Zach Hyman (18) is congratulated by Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) after scoring a goal during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on January 21, 2023 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Dom Luszczyszyn
Jan 26, 2023
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There’s roughly 32-to-36 games left in the season and the playoff race is really starting to heat up. Hotter than usual.
One surprising name in the thick of the race is the Buffalo Sabres who currently sit eighth in the East by points percentage and have a plus-20 goal differential, the 11th-best mark in the league.
That seems like a team that should have a decent shot at the playoffs and yet they currently sit at 10 percent per our model. Shouldn’t they be much higher? The Sabres are one point up on the Florida Panthers with three games in hand, a team whose playoff chances sit at 58 percent. Shouldn’t they be much lower?
The biggest reason they aren’t is priors. Everything we knew about every player and every team before this season can’t simply be thrown out the window. Though Buffalo has played well, the model needs more than 47 games to be convinced. Though the Panthers have struggled, that’s still a team that won the Presidents’ Trophy last season.
Right now the Sabres are scoring more goals and allowing fewer than the Panthers, but that’s a trend that should reverse based on the talent of both teams. The offensive weapons on Florida have a longer track record of success and while the Panthers’ defense is sketchy, the Sabres’ has a history of being much worse. The model currently expects Florida to be the league’s third-best offensive team going forward and 20th-best defensive team. Buffalo, in contrast, is 12th and 29th.
Offence vs. Defence
Anaheim Ducks
29th
32nd
Arizona Coyotes
31st
26th
Boston Bruins
7th
1st
Buffalo Sabres
12th
29th
Calgary Flames
9th
10th
Carolina Hurricanes
5th
6th
Chicago Blackhawks
32nd
30th
Colorado Avalanche
14th
9th
Columbus Blue Jackets
28th
31st
Dallas Stars
13th
2nd
Detroit Red Wings
27th
19th
Edmonton Oilers
2nd
21st
Florida Panthers
3rd
20th
Los Angeles Kings
22nd
17th
Minnesota Wild
16th
3rd
Montreal Canadiens
30th
27th
Nashville Predators
17th
13th
New Jersey Devils
6th
15th
New York Islanders
24th
7th
New York Rangers
15th
5th
Ottawa Senators
21st
23rd
Philadelphia Flyers
26th
22nd
Pittsburgh Penguins
8th
14th
San Jose Sharks
23rd
25th
Seattle Kraken
20th
16th
St. Louis Blues
18th
28th
Tampa Bay Lightning
4th
12th
Toronto Maple Leafs
1st
8th
Vancouver Canucks
11th
24th
Vegas Golden Knights
19th
18th
Washington Capitals
25th
4th
Winnipeg Jets
10th
11th
Offensive and defensive ratings are based on current lineups and do not include players that are currently injured. Defensive ratings include goaltending.
That’s not just based on priors either. This season’s results so far probably aren’t a proper reflection of either team’s ability. The Panthers are a better team than their results indicate while Buffalo, as fun as the Sabres have been, look like a team that’s overachieving. At five-on-five the Panthers remain a stronger team at both ends of the ice and their expected goal rates on special teams suggest they should have better results there than the Sabres down the stretch. Should.
Right now it looks like a very interesting race between the two teams that aren’t playing as expected, for better or worse. But there’s another reason beyond “prior expectations” for why the Panthers are expected to finish the season with 94 points, seven more than Buffalo: schedule strength.
Schedule strength doesn’t matter as much over a full season, but it can be a big deal over smaller stretches of games. With 32-to-36 games left, it can be a difference-maker and it has real potential to be with this race in particular.
The Sabres have games in hand, yes, but they also have the league’s second-toughest schedule going forward. On average, the teams they’ll be facing are expected to finish the season with 95 points on average. In contrast, the Panthers have it easier with a middle-of-the-pack schedule and an average opponent’s strength of 91.5 points.
An even bigger plus for the Panthers though is how many of their remaining games are at home. Florida has 32 games left, but 20 of those will be played in Sunrise. Buffalo, on the other hand, will play 19 of its remaining 35 games on the road.
Strength of Schedule
Detroit Red Wings
95.2
45.70%
Buffalo Sabres
95
45.70%
Columbus Blue Jackets
94.3
39.40%
New York Rangers
94.3
47.10%
Montreal Canadiens
94.1
50.00%
Ottawa Senators
93.8
44.10%
San Jose Sharks
93.5
51.50%
Tampa Bay Lightning
93.3
51.40%
Philadelphia Flyers
93.3
50.00%
Boston Bruins
92.4
42.90%
Vegas Golden Knights
92.4
42.40%
New Jersey Devils
91.8
45.70%
New York Islanders
91.8
53.10%
Nashville Predators
91.5
50.00%
Florida Panthers
91.5
62.50%
Chicago Blackhawks
91
38.90%
Carolina Hurricanes
90.7
57.10%
Los Angeles Kings
90.7
50.00%
Washington Capitals
90.7
53.10%
Anaheim Ducks
90.4
55.90%
Minnesota Wild
90.3
52.80%
Winnipeg Jets
90.1
54.50%
Arizona Coyotes
89.7
64.70%
Toronto Maple Leafs
89.7
45.50%
St. Louis Blues
89
50.00%
Pittsburgh Penguins
88.8
51.40%
Dallas Stars
87.9
56.30%
Colorado Avalanche
87.6
51.40%
Edmonton Oilers
87.4
45.50%
Vancouver Canucks
86.8
52.90%
Calgary Flames
86.3
50.00%
Seattle Kraken
86.2
48.60%
Anything can happen down the stretch and the Sabres have played well enough to warrant serious consideration for a playoff spot this season. But there’s a reason it’s still much more likely that they’ll be on the outside looking in once again this season.
16 Stats
1. Calling Buffalo one of the league’s worst defensive teams isn’t much of a stretch. The Sabres are a young team with questionable goaltending that plays a chaotic brand of hockey. They allow a lot of controlled entries, chances off of those entries and struggle to get the puck out safely.
But offensively? There’s a middle ground between the conservative caution of calling Buffalo the “12th-best offensive team” and the outlandish optimism of expecting the Sabres to continue to score more goals than anybody. With the puck on their sticks, this team does look for real.
According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder only four teams generate more high danger passes per 60 than Buffalo’s 0.95: New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Vegas and Florida. Only one team creates more shots off the rush than Buffalo’s 10.1: New Jersey. No team opts to carry the puck in over dumping it more than Buffalo, which does it 58 percent of the time.
All three of those facts are conducive to a team that can not only create more chances, but finish on a higher percentage of them. Buffalo is currently 10th in expected goal rate at five-on-five and second in shooting percentage. And while the latter number may regress, the Sabres earn enough chances to make up for it.
Once this team figures out how to play without the puck they’re going to be a really scary group. They already are.
2. Buffalo’s offence is led by Tage Thompson and he’s been an absolute beast this year, obviously. Sznajder’s data really helps highlight one reason why that is, specifically with Thompson’s play off the rush. On average 32 percent of zone entries lead to scoring chances. Thompson earns one on 58 percent of his zone entries.
That’s not the highest mark in the league (Matthew Tkachuk is at 69 percent), but Thompson does it at volume with nearly 14 controlled entries per 60 which is four more than Tkachuk and among the highest marks in the league. That leads to 8.1 scoring chances per 60, leading all players.
Thompson’s ability to turn expected goals into goals at such a high rate would generally be deemed “unsustainable” for most players. But his ability to generate so much off the rush makes his finishing impact much more plausible. Doing that at his size is a big part of what makes him such a unique player. He’s also one of the league leaders in high-danger shot contributions.
3. At this point last season the playoff race in the East was already over with six teams at 99 percent or higher and all eight above 96 percent. Out West, there were two teams at 99 percent or higher and six teams above 90 percent with an injury-plagued collapse from Vegas (97 percent) being the only change in the top eight. Boring.
This year looks much spicier with only six “locks” in the league: Boston, Carolina, Dallas, New Jersey, Tampa Bay and Toronto. The other 10 spots are far from safe. (Remember that 90 percent means one out of 10 times that team still misses.)
It’s been a while since there was this much intrigue and drama in the playoff race this late into the season, but especially out West it feels any team could make it (or miss it) for one reason or another. The margins right now are razor thin.
4. Not for St. Louis, though, who currently have a three percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s significant because it finally matches the team’s chances of landing Connor Bedard at the end of this dreadful season.
Neither is all that likely, but it shows what an ugly position the Blues, currently sitting with a 23-22-3 record, have found themselves in this season. They’re in hockey purgatory where neither a playoff spot nor a high draft choice is likely. It’s time to call it and try to sink as hard as they can over the final few months — finishing 11th in the West is the last place any team wants to be.
5. How lopsided are the East and West right now? The East currently has a 67 percent chance of taking home the Stanley Cup this season according to our latest forecast.
That might be a little high, but it’s worth noting the eight teams expected to make the playoffs from the East have a combined 104-41-20 record against the West — a 63 percent winning percentage. The four most likely candidates — Boston, Carolina, New Jersey and Toronto — are 56-13-14, or 67 percent. In games just against the eight teams expected to make the playoffs from the West, those four teams are 24-5-7, a 67 percent win rate.
6. The Bruins being so likely to go all the way plays a big role in the lopsided chances for the East as Boston has a 29 percent chance on its own. Maybe that feels high for this stage of the season, but honestly, nothing should for a team that has won 80 percent (!) of its games this season.
The NHL record for points is 132 and the Bruins are currently on pace for 140. At some point, they should slow down (right?!) and are currently projected to land somewhere around 128 points. That still means the NHL record is well within reach. With 35 games left Boston’s chances of hitting 133 points or more currently sit at 14 percent.
7. There are five players in the league who earn over 30 shot contributions per 60 (shots plus shot assists). The aforementioned Tage Thompson is one of them and he’s joined by three other expected culprits: Jack Hughes, Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews. The fifth player? William Nylander.
He’s having a heckuva season for the Leafs and has taken his offensive game to another level by getting more pucks to the net than ever before. Nylander is currently tied for the team lead in points with 57 and is on track to set new career highs in goals (on pace for 44) and points (on pace for 95). He’s reached a new level.
William Nylander, John Tavares and Auston Matthews. (Eric Hartline / USA Today)
8. What’s been particularly interesting this season has been Nylander’s pairing with Matthews creating a line with two shooting threats that has generated an incredible amount of offense. In 393 minutes together the duo has generated 4.41 goals-per-60 and 3.83 expected goals-per-60, both of which are higher than Matthews with Mitch Marner this season.
What’s intriguing about the duo is that they couldn’t be more different in how they generate offense and that creates a very difficult attack to stop when they’re on the ice together. Matthews thrives off the cycle, generating 67 percent of his offense off the forecheck. Nylander, on the other hand, earns 55 percent off the rush. Both are among the highest marks in the league.
9. In 46 games Brayden Point is scoring at a 48-goal, 87-point pace while earning 59 percent of the goals and 57 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five. It’s good for a 4.1-win pace. He’s back, thanks in no small part to a career high in expected goals generated: 3.68 per 60.
That’s top 10 in the league with a lot of that jump coming from his own ability to create chances, which has gone from 0.86 expected goals per 60 last season to 1.17 this year. Point is taking nearly two extra shots per 60 while also increasing how dangerous those shots are.
10. Since joining the New York Rangers Artemi Panarin has scored at a 113-, 113- and 105-point pace. In those three seasons, there were only four players with a higher points-per-game rate: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov. This year he’s on pace for just 87 points. What happened?
The 31-year-old winger remains one of the league’s most dynamic talents off the rush — that hasn’t changed. He still creates a lot of chances for the Rangers, but this is now the fourth straight year that his on-ice goal rate has dropped. In 2019-20 it was 4.17 goals-per-60. This year it’s at 2.52 and his point rate at five-on-five has fallen in lockstep. If not for Panarin earning a point on 92 percent of the goals he’s on the ice for, it could be much worse.
That also might be a clue given his micro stats haven’t changed much, not to mention his own shooting percentage staying strong. It might just be on his linemates not scoring as often with Vincent Trocheck being the primary culprit.
Trocheck has been Panarin’s most frequent linemate and though they generate a lot of chances together, those chances haven’t been going in. Over these previous three seasons, Trocheck scored 0.66 goals off 0.76 expected goals-per-60 suggesting he wasn’t much of a finisher, but he’s been even worse this season with an all-world passer on his left. Despite earning 0.84 expected goals-per-60, Trocheck has scored just 0.27 himself. A 3.8 percent shooting percentage likely means bad luck is mostly at fault, but it’s also possible the duo isn’t as strong of a fit as it seemed in the offseason.
11. New year, new coach … same discussion about Nikolaj Ehlers getting more minutes. The electrifying winger has 17 points in 13 games for the Jets and is still somehow playing under 17 minutes per night. Ehlers has finally cracked the top power play, but did that have to be at the expense of his even-strength usage? Ehlers is currently scoring 3.92 points-per-60 at five-on-five while earning 57 percent of the expected goals and 59 percent of the actual goals — yet is seventh among forwards in five-on-five ice time. Make it make sense.
12. One of the primary reasons the Arizona Coyotes were so awful last year was the sudden decline of Jakob Chychrun. He looked like a burgeoning stud in 2021 with his ability to put up big points while driving play in some of the league’s most difficult minutes. He played at a two-win pace; legit No. 1 defenseman numbers. In 2021-22 he struggled to do either and the end result was a sub-replacement-level season.
Which one was the real Chychrun? It’s looking like the 2021 version and that’s good news for prospective buyers who were worried about his play last season. Chychrun is back up to a 63-point pace while leading the Coyotes’ blue line in expected goals percentage (46.6 percent) and actual goals percentage (54.4 percent). The fact that the Coyotes are able to outscore anyone with Chychrun on the ice feels like a miracle and a testament to his impact at both ends of the ice. He’s doing all that in tough minutes too, and the end result is a 2.9-win pace.
I’m not sure if Chychrun is worth the exorbitant price the Coyotes are asking for — last year’s play is still of some worry — but he looks much closer after a bounce-back year. He’s a serious difference-maker.
13. The Kings have one of the most underrated shutdown pairs in the league in Drew Doughty and Mikey Anderson, both of whom rank in the league’s top 10 for defensive plus-minus at roughly plus-17. Defensive plus-minus is a mix of expected and actual goals against used in GSVA and the Kings duo has been excellent this year, allowing just 2.13 expected goals against and 2.21 goals against per 60 in 847 minutes together at five-on-five. When that pair isn’t on the ice together, the Kings allow 2.50 expected goals against and 2.83 actual goals against per 60. They make a big difference.
One of the reasons for that is their ability to defend the blue line. It’s something Doughty has always had a knack for and unsurprisingly he’s not targeted off the rush often at 19.1 targets per 60, according to data tracked by Sznajder. He’s allowed just 1.8 scoring chances against per 60 off those targets.
Puck carriers gravitating toward Anderson instead will have an even worse time, though. Anderson is targeted 27.1 times per 60, but has allowed just 1.4 scoring chances off those entries. That’s the third-lowest mark in the league behind Adam Fox and John Marino, though both defenders are targeted much less. The average NHL defenseman allows a scoring chance off an entry 16 percent of the time. Anderson leads the league at just 5.2 percent.
14. If you want an example of why Seth Jones has had such a difficult year, his zone entry defense data is a great start. That’s long been a struggle for Jones and this year it’s reached new heights. Jones is the league’s second most-targeted defender at a whopping 31.8 targets per 60 and leads all defensemen in allowing 8.2 scoring chances off those entries — a 25.7 percent rate.
Jones isn’t awful at allowing carries into the zone and does a good job denying entries … but when he gets beat he gets beat hard. Relative to the awful team he’s on, Jones does a decent job of preventing expected goals, but his ability to defend the blue line might help explain why no Blackhawks defender is on for more goals against per 60 than his 3.93. That’s the fourth-worst mark in the league.
15. An interesting name popped into the GSVA leaderboard’s top 10 this week: Zach Hyman, with 2.8 wins. In 48 games, Hyman has 25 goals and 57 points (a 98-point pace) while generating tons of offense. He’s been on an absolute heater over his last 20 games, scoring 15 goals and 28 points while earning a 64 percent expected goals rate and outscoring opponents 24-12. His average Game Score of 2.14 is second in the entire league to only McDavid, his frequent linemate.
It’s shades of Chris Kunitz riding shotgun with Sidney Crosby and in Hyman, the Oilers have found their own version for McDavid. Hyman is an elite grinder with legitimate offensive play-driving ability and that’s meshed very well with McDavid’s game this season. He’s a perfect fit on his wing and a perfect fit on that elite power play. There were some who doubted his contract when he was signed, but there shouldn’t have been. Hyman is the ultimate complementary player.
16. Speaking of Leafs expats on the Oilers — are we finally seeing Jack Campbell return to form? The entirety of 2022 was rough for Campbell as he had the absolute worst goals saved above expected of all goalies, allowing over 33 goals more than expected in just 42 games. It got bad enough that he lost the starting job not even halfway through the first year of a five-year deal. Ouch.
But since the calendar turned to 2023, Campbell looks much improved and is back to looking like the goalie many expected him to be: perfectly cromulent.
Campbell’s numbers are nothing special, but nothing special is a big deal considering his previous trajectory. In eight games Campbell is sporting a .916 save percentage and has saved 0.8 goals above expected. That’s not bad at all. For one of the nicest people in the game, let’s hope it continues.
Data via AllThreeZones, NHL, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards]-
Even if they improved from 29th to say 20th in Defense would do wonders |
