Gavin Lee: Detroit Red Wings trade Nick Leddy (50% retained) to St. Louis Blues for Klim Kostin, Marco Scandella

“Stevie Y is up to something.” That’s the text that Emily Kaplan of ESPN received this week, as the Red Wings prepare for the deadline in an interesting position. The team obviously isn’t good enough yet to contend for the Stanley Cup but has the building blocks to start pushing for a playoff position as soon as next season. With that in mind, targeting young players that have yet to make an impact makes sense, instead of just collecting draft picks like deadlines past.

Leddy has been linked to the Dallas Stars in recent days, and while they make sense, it seems more likely that they’re offering up a package of futures, instead of someone like Kostin who could impact the Red Wings lineup down the stretch and next season. The 30-year-old Leddy isn’t the player he once was but can still make an impact in a more limited role, something he could receive in St. Louis as they try to work their way back to the Stanley Cup.

You aren’t going to steal Kostin out of St. Louis for a few months of a depth defenseman though, so Detroit would need to provide some other value to the Blues. That’s where Scandella comes in, as the 32-year-old has taken a noticeable step back this season and is signed through 2023-24 at a $3.275MM cap hit. The thing is, for a team like the Red Wings, acquiring a cap hit like Scandella is almost meaningless given how much financial flexibility they’ve built, and he could essentially replace the veteran presence of Marc Staal next season. Scandella does hold a partial no-trade clause, but how likely is it that Detroit is one of the seven teams he has blocked?

The prize here is Kostin, a player that has struggled to find regular minutes in St. Louis. Since being selected 31st overall in 2017, the big forward has spent most of his time in the AHL, playing in most of three seasons before even making his NHL debut and now ending up back there this year. There’s a risk here for Detroit; Kostin isn’t signed past this season and could bolt for the KHL as a restricted free agent this summer, but there’s also a possibility that he establishes himself quickly as a middle-six option for a rebuilding club.

A second-round pick is nice, sure, but at some point, the Red Wings will have to start looking at players closer to the NHL. Kostin is exactly that, and the teams have a recent history of something just like this. In 2019, Detroit acquired Robby Fabbri from the Blues in exchange for Jacob de la Rose, and gave him an opportunity he wasn’t ever going to receive in St. Louis after major knee surgery. Kostin hasn’t been blocked because of injury, but perhaps the Red Wings could provide a similar chance for him to play more than the nine minutes he’s averaged over his 46-game career to this point.

I actually predicted most of this, Kostin might be a better acquisition than the 2nd and 3rd I had in my proposal. Kostin hasn't been good though stat wise in the past couple years. I still would prefer the 2nd and 3rd over Kostin, which may be St Louis just doing housecleaning.

I'm 90% sure now that Blashill has dirt on Chris Illitch that is saving his job. No other team in the league would keep their coach after a month+ of this kind of play coming off six seasons of pretty much the same even when they give him a better roster to work with. Also that collapsing defensive play is the absolute worst and can't believe an NHL team is actually using it as their go to strategy.

I'm 90% sure now that Blashill has dirt on Chris Illitch that is saving his job. No other team in the league would keep their coach after a month+ of this kind of play coming off six seasons of pretty much the same even when they give him a better roster to work with. Also that collapsing defensive play is the absolute worst and can't believe an NHL team is actually using it as their go to strategy.
- ShadowPiggy

What a stupid take. This is still a below average roster. Blashill and the entire staff will be gone this summer.

The Detroit #RedWings today acquired defenseman Jake Walman, center Oskar Sundqvist, and a 2nd round pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft from the St. Louis Blues in exchange for defensemen Nick Leddy and Luke Witkowski.

WOW! Good return for Stevie Y!!! I am glad he didn't take Scandella!

https://www.freep.com/sto...Li5CCbqNAd9rUtR6T_BL1xr9w

The Al Sobotka saga

We remain in limbo for a Wings writer. Hoping it's a fairly busy offseason, some good playoff hockey so far except that Florida series.

Hope everyone is well, Jeremy if you are lurking here at all, wishing you and your family the best.

We remain in limbo for a Wings writer. Hoping it's a fairly busy offseason, some good playoff hockey so far except that Florida series.

Hope everyone is well, Jeremy if you are lurking here at all, wishing you and your family the best.
- Datsyuks_Dangle

Yeah, I come on here from time to time seeing if anyone shows up. Kinda gets lonely......

Hopefully if there is no blogger we can still discuss the Wings moves this summer. It should be eventful!

Yeah, I come on here from time to time seeing if anyone shows up. Kinda gets lonely......

Hopefully if there is no blogger we can still discuss the Wings moves this summer. It should be eventful!
- HenryHockey

I think we are all on the same page, so to speak, of checking in once in a while to hopefully find a new DRW blog. It would be great if Jeremy recovered to the point he could resume his blog.

Even though I didn't post much I always enjoyed reading the blog & most of the comments that followed.

Vasilevsky recently broke a tie to take sole possession of 1st place for shutouts in series clinching games. Who'd he break the tie with? Osgood. Just saying.
Just 1 more reason for: Ozzy for HOF!

Vasilevsky recently broke a tie to take sole possession of 1st place for shutouts in series clinching games. Who'd he break the tie with? Osgood. Just saying.
Just 1 more reason for: Ozzy for HOF!
- HenryHockey

Chris Osgood, regular season career:
.629 winning percentage, .905 save percentage

Chris Osgood's playing partners combined, in games where he was the backup or scratched:
.640 winning percentage, .906 save percentage

Chris Osgood's record in playoff series where he was the starter:
15-9 (.625)

Chris Osgood's record in playoff series where he was the backup:
10-5 (.667)

I love Osgood. That's him in my avatar. But he's not a Hall of Famer. He was an average-to-good goaltender who had an unusually long and consistent career and played for a lot of amazing teams. Basically the Draper of goalies.

Chris Osgood, regular season career:
.629 winning percentage, .905 save percentage

Chris Osgood's playing partners combined, in games where he was the backup or scratched:
.640 winning percentage, .906 save percentage

Chris Osgood's record in playoff series where he was the starter:
15-9 (.625)

Chris Osgood's record in playoff series where he was the backup:
10-5 (.667)

I love Osgood. That's him in my avatar. But he's not a Hall of Famer. He was an average-to-good goaltender who had an unusually long and consistent career and played for a lot of amazing teams. Basically the Draper of goalies.
- Sven22

How many goalies have 3 cups, over 400 wins, a Jennings and are NOT in the HOF??? NONE!
https://thehockeywriters....good-hall-of-fame-worthy/

How many goalies have 3 cups, over 400 wins, a Jennings and are NOT in the HOF??? NONE!
https://thehockeywriters....good-hall-of-fame-worthy/
- HenryHockey

Cups and wins are an overall strength of team stat. The Jennings is a team defense award. Goalie quality is obviously part of the equation here, but far from the whole picture even in the case of the Jennings.

To me what's remarkable about Osgood is how long he played and how consistent he was despite never actually being one of the best in the league. Most goalies who top out at "above average" don't play 17 seasons and 700+ games, and even if they do they have a bunch of really terrible seasons on their record.

Osgood really shouldn't have played out those last couple of seasons when he was pretty clearly washed, but otherwise he was basically just reliably solid with few major outliers in either direction from age 21 to age 35. That's stunning to me. I think it says a lot about his determination and dedication. And also why I think the comparison to a guy like Draper, who played 20 years almost exclusively as a third liner, is pretty apt.

Perhaps Ray Whitney would be an even better comparable -- never really an all-star, only one season above a point per game, but just a straight up solid first or second liner for nearly two decades.

Again, Osgood is one of my all-time faves and there's a lot about his career that's very worth celebrating, but I don't think he has a legitimate HOF case.

Addendum: Deep dive into Osgood's 1996 Jennings Trophy (and Red Wings season).

The Jennings is awarded to the goalie(s) of the team with the fewest goals against. The year Osgood won the Jennings as the primary starter (1996), the Red Wings only allowed 24.2 shots against per game -- the fewest in the league -- while more than half of the teams in the NHL allowed 30+.

Here's a quick thought experiment demonstrating just how ridiculously good those 1996 Red Wings were. Detroit was only giving up 24.2 shots per game, while scoring 3.96 goals per game. Here's the team goaltending they would have hypothetically needed to:

- Win the Jennings: .898
- Have a positive goal differential on the season: .836

That season, 20 out of 26 starting goaltenders had a save percentage better than .898, and the absolute worst starter statistically (Tommy Soderstrom) managed .878.

If the Wings had gotten Soderstrom-level goaltending against the same number of shots that year they'd have allowed 242 goals ... and probably still won the President's Trophy since they scored 325. That still projects out to 50+ win season. (They actually had 62 wins). It is not exaggerating to say that the Red Wings probably could have played an ECHL goalie all season long and still made the playoffs, probably easily.

Again, that's not a knock on Osgood, who was arguably one of the top 5 goalies in the NHL that season. But he had a looooooooooooooooot of help.

Addendum: Deep dive into Osgood's 1996 Jennings Trophy (and Red Wings season).

The Jennings is awarded to the goalie(s) of the team with the fewest goals against. The year Osgood won the Jennings as the primary starter (1996), the Red Wings only allowed 24.2 shots against per game -- the fewest in the league -- while more than half of the teams in the NHL allowed 30+.

Here's a quick thought experiment demonstrating just how ridiculously good those 1996 Red Wings were. Detroit was only giving up 24.2 shots per game, while scoring 3.96 goals per game. Here's the team goaltending they would have hypothetically needed to:

- Win the Jennings: .898
- Have a positive goal differential on the season: .836

That season, 20 out of 26 starting goaltenders had a save percentage better than .898, and the absolute worst starter statistically (Tommy Soderstrom) managed .878.

If the Wings had gotten Soderstrom-level goaltending against the same number of shots that year they'd have allowed 242 goals ... and probably still won the President's Trophy since they scored 325. That still projects out to 50+ win season. (They actually had 62 wins). It is not exaggerating to say that the Red Wings probably could have played an ECHL goalie all season long and still made the playoffs, probably easily.

Again, that's not a knock on Osgood, who was arguably one of the top 5 goalies in the NHL that season. But he had a looooooooooooooooot of help.
- Sven22

(sigh)

Mo Calder

Mo Calder
- Datsyuks_Dangle

Where you all reading and posting these days? Anywhere decent?

Where you all reading and posting these days? Anywhere decent?
- Feds91Stammer

HFBoards mainly. I'm a mod on letsgowings.com, but the site is all but dead since the team stopped making payoffs.

The subreddit is insufferable.

HFBoards mainly. I'm a mod on letsgowings.com, but the site is all but dead since the team stopped making payoffs.

The subreddit is insufferable.
- Datsyuks_Dangle

Gross. Never been a fan of HFBoards

Where you all reading and posting these days? Anywhere decent?
- Feds91Stammer

wingingitinmotown.com

wingingitinmotown.com
- ShadowPiggy

Yeah I was a member there for 15 years and they banned me for life for defending free speech.

Yeah I was a member there for 15 years and they banned me for life for defending free speech.

- HenryHockey

That site is for dudes that have to ask their wives boyfriends if they can watch the games or not.

Where you all reading and posting these days? Anywhere decent?
- Feds91Stammer

Hey, Feds; not a whole lot of decent places. Hell, even HG is a steaming pile anymore... I drop in here on rare occasions, but mostly reading various sites....Nothing like what we had with Jeremy, for damn sure.

That site is for dudes that have to ask their wives boyfriends if they can watch the games or not.
- Feds91Stammer

I'm sure coach LaLonde will gru on me. Hope he festers a winning culture