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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: "Gratton Trade" for Weber Makes Financial & Hockey Sense
Author Message
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 23 @ 9:29 AM ET
They traded for Bryzgalov. Didn't introduce him for 2 months.
- Jsaquella


We can play the forth game with introducing Bryzgalov months later as he was in Russia and I'll bring up when they introduced Brayden, Voracek and Simmonds (5 days after trade), Pronger (7 days after trade), etc.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 23 @ 9:30 AM ET
People need to get the whole offer sheet thing out of their heads.

Without an offer sheet is Weber worth Voracek, Meszaros, Bourdon and 3 1st rounders? I think he's very close to being worth that. Maybe one fewer 1st rounders, but that's around what I felt Weber would demand in a trade all along.

My first suggestion at Nashville demand was back in January or so, when I suggested JvR, Brayden Schenn and 2 1sts as a fair deal for him.

- Jsaquella


You are a wise man. And, I think pretty close to where Holmgren is at.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:30 AM ET
Coburn is a forward step. Far more potential than L Schenn. But, Nashville craves a number one center, they have for a long time. I think it is the one thing they might be able to sell their fans on is the idea that a future #1 is part of the package.

The announcement of the green light will be structured for the Nashville faithful. It will involve the full board and more information on capitalization. When leaked it will provide Poile with total authority to settle the matter in the best interest of Nashville's fans and players.

- spatso


Again, you're assuming a green light announcement WILL occur when in reality we don't know that. The owners may tell Poile he can't match for all we know.
twotoekenn
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: perkasie, PA
Joined: 12.16.2009

Jul 23 @ 9:30 AM ET
I think Nashville ownership knows they put impossible constraints on Poile. So, last year they changed their capital structure, they have expanded Wilson's holdings, they told their fans they would be a cap team and compete for a Cup.

That is what the green light is all about. They must match or everything falls apart. Corporate sponsors will be the first to go, followed by box owners and season ticket renewal cancellations. The green light will come with no strings attached.

Poile matches unless Holmgren gives him something that he can sell his own players and fans. Every argument about the financial stress of the Preds is an argument supporting a green light strategy.

- spatso


So if using your logic they match webers contract and god forbid he sustains a career ending injury early this season, does the corporate support go away then?
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 23 @ 9:31 AM ET
haha i just got blocked by manyunk mike lol
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:31 AM ET
You are a wise man. And, I think pretty close to where Holmgren is at.
- spatso


Not saying I wouldn't, but I don't believe Homer will move Schenn.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 23 @ 9:31 AM ET
Which is why I'm on the fence about moving Schenn, Schenn, and picks for Weber.

In reality, I think it's a good hockey move, but at the same time I want to keep them if at all possible.

However, if Poile is truly given the green light by the owners then Homer needs to seriously consider, at the very least, moving those 2 IMO.

I have said all along my only untouchables would be Couturier and Giroux.

Jake, who I love, would be kept under this scenario too.

- LordStanley88


I could live with a Schenn trade, although I think people who say I wouldn't give up Couturier but would give up B. Schenn are kind of underestimating the kind of player Schenn could be. Long term, Brayden Schenn could turn out to be better than Couturier.

I agree with Bill, the only absolutely untouchable name is Claude Giroux.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:32 AM ET
I could live with a Schenn trade, although I think people who say I wouldn't give up Couturier but would give up B. Schenn are kind of underestimating the kind of player Schenn could be. Long term, Brayden Schenn could turn out to be better than Couturier.

I agree with Bill, the only absolutely untouchable name is Claude Giroux.

- Jsaquella


I just disagree there. I have exorbitant expectations for Couturier but I understand that's just my opinion.

Schenn will be a stud too, just not to Couts' level IMO.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 23 @ 9:32 AM ET
Again, you're assuming a green light announcement WILL occur when in reality we don't know that. The owners may tell Poile he can't match for all we know.
- LordStanley88


I wish a decision was made so we can move forward. I will support the decision of Homer, he will do what's best for the team.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jul 23 @ 9:33 AM ET
Philly's low end 1st rounders tend to bring in solid players....take Giroux and Richards as case in point.
- Pyzik


I think that has more to do with the Flyers' scouting a what not but Nashville has done well in the draft historically so I could see them picking players of value.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 23 @ 9:33 AM ET
From The Bundy/Manayunk Mike row on Twitter:

Chris Therien ‏@ctherien6

Honestly yes. Eklund! He is at every flyer game every night. I see him speaking to agents and gms (cont)


Eklund getting some Bundy props.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 23 @ 9:33 AM ET
What if Weber gets a NMC in the deal? If he has a NMC, he can simply force the Preds hands next year by refusing trades. Also, how likely is it for a team with Nashville's questionable finances to pay a guy $27mm in one year and then trade him?
- Jsaquella


Offer sheets cannot include nmc
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jul 23 @ 9:33 AM ET
haha i just got blocked by manyunk mike lol
- Philly1980

you can always talk to dan the wombat
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 23 @ 9:34 AM ET
As a Day one season ticket holder I think they match unless they get what they want. There is no reason that can't restructure capital and fit this in to work, but it is the upfront money they were not offering. I believe they had an equivalent deal in salary (even for Suter) but without the bonus and I think Weber feels there won't be hockey and salaries are going to be rolled back again.

After the 1st two bonuses are out of the way he would bring way better return to the Preds than this blog is offering now.

If I am Poile, I match then let the bidding begin next year and I feel confident we would get a top 6 forward a good Dman and some picks that might work out better than the low 1st rounders Philly's are sure to be.

- Rustyblade


The deal presented in this blog would bring back a top six forward, a good D signed for a few years to come, an NHL-ready young D with rookie year out of way, plus a 2013 first-rounder plus not having to spend $26M just to get to point where Preds could trade Weber even w/o a no-trade. That's plenty when you keep that final part in mind, too.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 23 @ 9:35 AM ET
You are a wise man. And, I think pretty close to where Holmgren is at.
- spatso


Thanks for the compliment, but it's just from reading a lot of different opinions and trying to look at both sides of the situation.

To my way of thinking, the offer sheet was an effort to force a trade. That said, I still think that there's 3 possible outcomes.

1. We see the "Gratton" trade, where the Flyers trade players to Nashville to guarantee they do not match.

2. Nashville matches

3. The Preds don't match and take the picks, and trade them elsewhere to fill needs.

I think 1 & 2 are far more likely than 3.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 23 @ 9:36 AM ET
you can always talk to dan the wombat
- BulliesPhan87


lol ...Manyunk would publish news articles and then link at hem as if they were legit...i called him on it and he blocked me. LOL
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:36 AM ET
Look, if Schenn were to become a deal breaker, I'd do it.

However, I think it goes without saying that you do everything in your power to try and hold onto him.

Remember that Weber is the prize here!
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 23 @ 9:36 AM ET
Offer sheets cannot include nmc
- spatso


Offer sheets don't, but they can be added into the final contract. In fact Weber's agent said that he and the Flyers have discussed a "no trade" clause that would be in the finalized deal.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 23 @ 9:37 AM ET
So if using your logic they match webers contract and god forbid he sustains a career ending injury early this season, does the corporate support go away then?
- twotoekenn


Not the same thing. I buy season tickets on sincere expectations. I can deal with injuries, even failure. But don't lie to me about how the money I give you will be used. If you said you were going to resign these guys you better do it. Because as a corporate sponsor I am paying the freight.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 23 @ 9:37 AM ET
I agree with a lot of your points, especially something to sell the fans on. I am just speculating but I really think if the Flyers want Weber and Nashville to decline matching, it will be both Schenns and 2 firsts. It is a steep price but it means parting with 1 of Brayden and Couturier, not the 2 that Nashville demanded earlier:

My point is that it gives Predators something to show fans that they made a good financial and hockey trade that was the best they were going to get for someone who showed they really wanted to be elsewhere. In fact, it would not shock me to see Nashville use the Flyers draft picks to acquire a Bouwmeester from Calgary.

Since June 24, I had been waiting for a press conference introducing Luke Schenn. With the story about the brothers uniting to play for a team, I thought this should have happened weeks ago. Last year, it took a little over a week to 2 to bring in Simmonds and Vorcaek and Schenn when they were acquired in a trade, we are going on almost 4 with Luke.

So maybe when Homer acquired Luke, it was to be used in a deal for Weber. When NNashville asked for both Couturier and Brayden (per Dreger) and maybe Luke, Homer said no way and submitted the offer sheet.

I also don't see how Nashville would accept Voracek MAB and Meszaros and 3 firsts. I like those players and have no problem as a Flyesr fan if they are on the team next year, but I think Poile and Nashville ownership would want some players who are not RFAs

- sulshawn



I think your putting way too much weight into there not being a press conference for Luke Schenn. No one knows what the players prior schedule is like. Holmgren knew of the possibility of losing Carle. As well as knowing he was going to try and better the team.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:37 AM ET
The deal presented in this blog would bring back a top six forward, a good D signed for a few years to come, an NHL-ready young D with rookie year out of way, plus a 2013 first-rounder plus not having to spend $26M just to get to point where Preds could trade Weber even w/o a no-trade. That's plenty when you keep that final part in mind, too.
- bmeltzer


Right Bill, but would Nashville have accepted that before the OS?

I'd say absolutely no.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jul 23 @ 9:38 AM ET
lol ...Manyunk would publish news articles and then link at hem as if they were legit...i called him on it and he blocked me. LOL
- Philly1980

a Wordpress Wizard of sorts
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 23 @ 9:39 AM ET
Right Bill, but would Nashville have accepted that before the OS?

I'd say absolutely no.

- LordStanley88


Maybe not, but who out there is going to give them a better deal?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 23 @ 9:39 AM ET
I agree with this. Teams lose star players all the time (it's even worse in MLB) and manage to survive. Nashville themselves lost Kimo and Hartnell the same off-season. What did they do? They had other guys step up and Weber and Suter blossomed into stars. Fwiw, I'm not trying to compare Kimo and Hartnell to Weber and Suter, just saying there is precedent for the team losing quality players and still icing a competitive team.
- right-winger


When the lost Hartnell and Timonen, they were still an up and coming team. Now they are team that has built up a decent fan base and ticket sales. The situation was different then, then it is now.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 23 @ 9:39 AM ET
a Wordpress Wizard of sorts
- BulliesPhan87

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