Wonderful read, especially the explanation of the predicament that Nashville has put itself into as it relates to their down stream contracts.

Agree that we should hear sometime today that Poile has been given the green light by ownership to match. Where I disagree, with the analysis is with the motivation on Poile for doing a deal. I think he wants to do a deal. But if he does not do something big he will lose all those young players next year.

Poile and the ownership knows they have no choice but to match unless there is a game breaker coming back (either a Schenn/Schenn or Couturier led package). If not the Preds have nothing to sell their fans or, more important, the other players on the team.

A green light has to be a green light, it cannot be a bluff or a coercive manipulation. Poile has to have the last conversation with Holmgren knowing he can decide what is best based on what he will tell the Predator fans and those young players they need to resign. The decision for Poile is going to be easy. You know there are 28 other GM's telling Poile what he should get or, possibly, not do.

By Wednesday the pressure on Holmgren will be intense. But, he thrives under pressure and will be okay. He knows the deal hangs on a Schenn/Schenn or Couturier led offer. He knows that in order to get Weber he needs to offer something most of the fans oppose.

Wonderful read, especially the explanation of the predicament that Nashville has put itself into as it relates to their down stream contracts.

Agree that we should hear sometime today that Poile has been given the green light by ownership to match. Where I disagree, with the analysis is with the motivation on Poile for doing a deal. I think he wants to do a deal. But if he does not do something big he will lose all those young players next year.

Poile and the ownership knows they have no choice but to match unless there is a game breaker coming back (either a Schenn/Schenn or Couturier led package). If not the Preds have nothing to sell their fans or, more important, the other players on the team.

A green light has to be a green light, it cannot be a bluff or a coercive manipulation. Poile has to have the last conversation with Holmgren knowing he can decide what is best based on what he will tell the Predator fans and those young players they need to resign. The decision for Poile is going to be easy. You know there are 28 other GM's telling Poile what he should get or, possibly, not do.

By Wednesday the pressure on Holmgren will be intense. But, he thrives under pressure and will be okay. He knows the deal hangs on a Schenn/Schenn or Couturier led offer. He knows that in order to get Weber he needs to offer something most of the fans oppose.
- spatso

I believe Nashville matches the offer! Not only that, I believe they make a play for some other highend players. Not sure if they'll catch any, but I think they have the money to do it.

I honestly think that if we were willing to do Schenn/Schenn or Coututier that a deal would already be done without the offer sheet.

It will be an interesting week.

Is it still possible to send cash with a trade? Could the preds match and trade him next year having the other team include real $$ to offset that 27M bonus in the first 365 days?
- brubacca

No, can't send cash anymore.

my take is we match unless homer gives poile what he wants. our new partial owner has the dough. im sure its still gonna take some financial arranging but (as you said) the ownership has been spouting off about being a near cap team now for a year or so. now its its put up or shutup time. i think we put up. the deal you mentioned is woefully poor for the preds. we would need at least 1 dman and 2 nhl ready forwards and some amount of picks otherwise philly did us a favor and got this negotiation done. you mentioned DP should have signed both suter and weber before now and i agree. what you didnt mention is that has been a front burner issue for nearly 2 years now. certainly, in our penny pinching ways, they werent offered anything near this type money til near the end of the suter negotiations. also, i will say suter just didnt want to play here so im not sure he was signable at any price. i feel the same about weber, which is a little disconcerting. i do, however believe if we match, weber will be fine. hes a pro and competitor. also, if he seems somehow different after the 1 year trade ban passes we could have 29 potential trade partners rather than take a crappy deal now. we would be out alot of money (27 mil) by july of 2013, but thats better than 56 or 80 mil in 4 or 5 years if things arent working out. its also better than taking a bad deal and lose a fan base. that would cost more. I SAY WE MATCH and i thank homer for getting poile in the big boys game.

Wonderful read, especially the explanation of the predicament that Nashville has put itself into as it relates to their down stream contracts.

Agree that we should hear sometime today that Poile has been given the green light by ownership to match. Where I disagree, with the analysis is with the motivation on Poile for doing a deal. I think he wants to do a deal. But if he does not do something big he will lose all those young players next year.

Poile and the ownership knows they have no choice but to match unless there is a game breaker coming back (either a Schenn/Schenn or Couturier led package). If not the Preds have nothing to sell their fans or, more important, the other players on the team.

A green light has to be a green light, it cannot be a bluff or a coercive manipulation. Poile has to have the last conversation with Holmgren knowing he can decide what is best based on what he will tell the Predator fans and those young players they need to resign. The decision for Poile is going to be easy. You know there are 28 other GM's telling Poile what he should get or, possibly, not do.

By Wednesday the pressure on Holmgren will be intense. But, he thrives under pressure and will be okay. He knows the deal hangs on a Schenn/Schenn or Couturier led offer. He knows that in order to get Weber he needs to offer something most of the fans oppose.
- spatso

totally agree and i think we match

I honestly think that if we were willing to do Schenn/Schenn or Coututier that a deal would already be done without the offer sheet.

It will be an interesting week.
- brubacca

Perhaps, but that was yesterday. Everything is much cleaner now. Other teams are involved. Poile alone owns the hammer once the green light is given. What do you think is the best thing for him to do for the Predator fans and young players?

my take is we match unless homer gives poile what he wants. our new partial owner has the dough. im sure its still gonna take some financial arranging but (as you said) the ownership has been spouting off about being a near cap team now for a year or so. now its its put up or shutup time. i think we put up. the deal you mentioned is woefully poor for the preds. we would need at least 1 dman and 2 nhl ready forwards and some amount of picks otherwise philly did us a favor and got this negotiation done. you mentioned DP should have signed both suter and weber before now and i agree. what you didnt mention is that has been a front burner issue for nearly 2 years now. certainly, in our penny pinching ways, they werent offered anything near this type money til near the end of the suter negotiations. also, i will say suter just didnt want to play here so im not sure he was signable at any price. i feel the same about weber, which is a little disconcerting. i do, however believe if we match, weber will be fine. hes a pro and competitor. also, if he seems somehow different after the 1 year trade ban passes we could have 29 potential trade partners rather than take a crappy deal now. we would be out alot of money (27 mil) by july of 2013, but thats better than 56 or 80 mil in 4 or 5 years if things arent working out. its also better than taking a bad deal and lose a fan base. that would cost more. I SAY WE MATCH and i thank homer for getting poile in the big boys game.
- predswilrule

Paragraphs brother!!!

The better option in my opinion would be to match the offer sheet and swallow the money that is thrown at him and trade him next year as soon as they can. There would be a huge market for him and they could choose what they get instead of Philly saying "here take this and be happy".
- bobert836

This option has been mentioned many times, but the issue is all that front end loaded money. If Nash matches, they need to pay 26 mil for a rental player as they need to wait a year before trading him.

Perhaps, but that was yesterday. Everything is much cleaner now. Other teams are involved. Poile alone owns the hammer once the green light is given. What do you think is the best thing for him to do for the Predator fans and young players?
- spatso

I just don't understand your view on this. For the first year only two teams are involved. The signed OS assureds that. Nashville only has the hammered if ownership will match. A lot of the financial analysis leads me to think that the OS was structured so Nash almost couldn't match.

To me they are playing 5 card draw now. It will be fun to play out. The only team over a barrell is Nashville, if they can't get the funds to match.

my take is we match unless homer gives poile what he wants. our new partial owner has the dough. im sure its still gonna take some financial arranging but (as you said) the ownership has been spouting off about being a near cap team now for a year or so. now its its put up or shutup time. i think we put up. the deal you mentioned is woefully poor for the preds. we would need at least 1 dman and 2 nhl ready forwards and some amount of picks otherwise philly did us a favor and got this negotiation done. you mentioned DP should have signed both suter and weber before now and i agree. what you didnt mention is that has been a front burner issue for nearly 2 years now. certainly, in our penny pinching ways, they werent offered anything near this type money til near the end of the suter negotiations. also, i will say suter just didnt want to play here so im not sure he was signable at any price. i feel the same about weber, which is a little disconcerting. i do, however believe if we match, weber will be fine. hes a pro and competitor. also, if he seems somehow different after the 1 year trade ban passes we could have 29 potential trade partners rather than take a crappy deal now. we would be out alot of money (27 mil) by july of 2013, but thats better than 56 or 80 mil in 4 or 5 years if things arent working out. its also better than taking a bad deal and lose a fan base. that would cost more. I SAY WE MATCH and i thank homer for getting poile in the big boys game.
- predswilrule

I totally see where you are coming from. As a fan, I'd want him to match as well.
Another dynamic is that it appears that Weber is not interested in staying in Nashville whether it's becauuse of Suter's departure or feeling slighted by the GM after they decided to play hardball. I know I'd be leery of making that investment to my Captain who has clearly stated he'd like to move on.

Perhaps, but that was yesterday. Everything is much cleaner now. Other teams are involved. Poile alone owns the hammer once the green light is given. What do you think is the best thing for him to do for the Predator fans and young players?
- spatso

Why are you so sure the green light will be given?

my take is we match unless homer gives poile what he wants. our new partial owner has the dough. im sure its still gonna take some financial arranging but (as you said) the ownership has been spouting off about being a near cap team now for a year or so. now its its put up or shutup time. i think we put up. the deal you mentioned is woefully poor for the preds. we would need at least 1 dman and 2 nhl ready forwards and some amount of picks otherwise philly did us a favor and got this negotiation done. you mentioned DP should have signed both suter and weber before now and i agree. what you didnt mention is that has been a front burner issue for nearly 2 years now. certainly, in our penny pinching ways, they werent offered anything near this type money til near the end of the suter negotiations. also, i will say suter just didnt want to play here so im not sure he was signable at any price. i feel the same about weber, which is a little disconcerting. i do, however believe if we match, weber will be fine. hes a pro and competitor. also, if he seems somehow different after the 1 year trade ban passes we could have 29 potential trade partners rather than take a crappy deal now. we would be out alot of money (27 mil) by july of 2013, but thats better than 56 or 80 mil in 4 or 5 years if things arent working out. its also better than taking a bad deal and lose a fan base. that would cost more. I SAY WE MATCH and i thank homer for getting poile in the big boys game.
- predswilrule

just because wilson has the money doesnt mean hes going to throw 26 million into the fire. Theyll only spend it if they think weber can turn it around. Its going to be hard for nashville to sign the 12 ufa/rfa you have coming up next offseason with two monster contracts.

Great write-up Bill.

You had retweeted yesterday the possibility of Poile trading the 4 1st to another team as well. It seems like nobody is really talking about that.

I can see Holmgren now trying to drop hints of potential suitors for those picks....."I think Chicago us unhappy with Kane, just sayin'"
- DrMidnite

Here is a post I made last night. Bill didn't seem to agree to it, but I still think it is a valid point. Another part of my argument was that picks 3 and 4 years out into the future, especially low round picks, will not yield a player until 5-8 years. IMO that is a big reason why teams don't acquire picks more than a couple years away.

One sobering thought before I log off. I just checked nhl trade history back to 2000 looking at all trades involving first round picks.

1. Most were either at draft or trade deadline
2. Most were picks in the immediate upcoming draft (some exceptions of course).
3. If not trading up/down in current draft or deadline deals, they were part of a larger deal where the team giving up the pick was also including players in the trade.
4. Some exceptions that were in the summer or early in the season. Back up goalies (Varlamov), Kessel deal.
5. Rarely was a pick 2 years away. One exception was the pick that got us Carter in the Langkow trade. That was a future pick.

The point I was checking was Bill's comment that the Preds could trade some of those picks to another team to get a more valuable roster player than Flyers want to give up. Of course it's always possible, but after looking at last 12-13 years it really seems future picks are not as valuable to NHL GM's (unlike NFL, where picks play in 1st year after draft)

Anyway, apologies to Bill if I annoyed you.
- TheGreat28

Why are you so sure the green light will be given?
- Hextall271

Lol because wilson welll swoop down like batman and save the day. I never met a rich guy who like loosing money. There is a lot of risk for them taking that contract:

1. No season he gets paid.
2. He gets injured he gets paid.
3. Hes pissed to the point he sits out...he gets paid.

He gets paid either way. im sure poile contacts him to see if he would like to stay...if he does they match.

Nashvilles financials go from: 1 million loss to 27 mill. good luck getting nashville taxpayers to float that bill.

Lol because wilson welll swoop down like batman and save the day. I never met a rich guy who like loosing money. There is a lot of risk for them taking that contract:

1. No season he gets paid.
2. He gets injured he gets paid.
3. Hes pissed to the point he sits out...he gets paid.

He gets paid either way. im sure poile contacts him to see if he would like to stay...if he does they match.
- Philly1980

The new fact I was not aware of is that he gets paid whether there's a season or not. Wow, that's insane and really sticking your neck out. Imagine if they pay him 26 mil for 1 year which he doesn't even play and the team loses 20 mil with no ticket revenue?

Hi Bill,

Great read as always. I'm not sure if the "steal" comment was related to our tweet exchange last night, but I wanted to clarify.

I wasn't implying that Nashville wouldn't help the flyers to "steal" Weber. They obviously would make the best deal for their team under the circumstances.

I was referring to the scenario where Nashville trades our 4 picks to someone other than the Flyers. I don't see a third party trading a young roster player to Nashville for picks (point in the previous post) and by doing so helping the Flyers acquire Weber.

I just don't understand your view on this. For the first year only two teams are involved. The signed OS assureds that. Nashville only has the hammered if ownership will match. A lot of the financial analysis leads me to think that the OS was structured so Nash almost couldn't match.

To me they are playing 5 card draw now. It will be fun to play out. The only team over a barrell is Nashville, if they can't get the funds to match.
- brubacca

The oil patch is entirely commingled, on good days everyone wins. Right now the real money behind the Preds is feeling more flushed than he has in a long time as is everyone else in the patch.

http://www.businessweek.c...illion-to-expand-overseas

I am in the no trade group for the most part. If I am PH I tell Poile that if he doesn't match we are willing to trade players back for a couple of the first round picks.
The package that Bill suggested is the top end of players I would trade. I would rather not lose Jake V but it's also important to keep prospects in the pipeline. Schenns, and Couturier, Giroux, Coburn are not negotiable.
I Like Nashville and want to see them be successful but I want the flyers to be the top dog so hopefully they flyers can get Weber. If Poile is asking to much and matches then so be it. The flyers will still have a strong team.
My only concern with losing Jake is that the flyers will be down three top 9 forwards. There is no guarantee that Doan signs here and Semin has major question marks so who else is available to sign? The only other option is another trade.

I am in the no trade group for the most part. If I am PH I tell Poile that if he doesn't match we are willing to trade players back for a couple of the first round picks.
The package that Bill suggested is the top end of players I would trade. I would rather not lose Jake V but it's also important to keep prospects in the pipeline. Schenns, and Couturier, Giroux, Coburn are not negotiable.
I Like Nashville and want to see them be successful but I want the flyers to be the top dog so hopefully they flyers can get Weber. If Poile is asking to much and matches then so be it. The flyers will still have a strong team.
My only concern with losing Jake is that the flyers will be down three top 9 forwards. There is no guarantee that Doan signs here and Semin has major question marks so who else is available to sign? The only other option is another trade.
- bird_dog

In a perfect world..I'd love to add Weber for the picks, but in reality..I think a trade may be the way it gets done and the list Bill provided of players seems plausible. I am of the mind that we desperately need a Weber so if a trade needs to happen that doesn't include Cooter, Schenn etc.. then make it happen. My worst case scenario is they match and we end up with nothing but a week of drama to look back on.

If Voracek goes, the issue I have is that we are painstakingly thin on wing now. Maybe that's why we are looking at Doan.

Perhaps, but that was yesterday. Everything is much cleaner now. Other teams are involved. Poile alone owns the hammer once the green light is given. What do you think is the best thing for him to do for the Predator fans and young players?
- spatso

That hasn't changed. And there are no other teams involved. The best thing for him to do is to take the Voracek/Meszaros deal.

The new fact I was not aware of is that he gets paid whether there's a season or not. Wow, that's insane and really sticking your neck out. Imagine if they pay him 26 mil for 1 year which he doesn't even play and the team loses 20 mil with no ticket revenue?
- Hextall271

Did not know this as well, so they can pay him all that cash, and zero revenue to show for it if the seasons delayed,

Crazy!
Cannot see them matching this, as well, no way they get Jake in the trade, we have no trade chips for a scoring winger & he's as close to a 60 point winger that we have after Hartnell.

That hasn't changed. And there are no other teams involved. The best thing for him to do is to take the Voracek/Meszaros deal.
- MJL

Sorry, miscue, on my part ( or auto correct). I had meant to say, as you correctly noted that there are no other teams involved.

The choices are very clear for both sides. When Poile is given the green light he will be told that the money for Weber is covered. So, his only concern is the best outcome for his team, players and fans. Holmgren has exactly the same mandate. Now they do a real hockey deal.

Maybe from the outside I don't understand, but I think too much is being made of the fanbase/revenue loss if Weber isn't matched. The media gets carried away IMO of these doom and gloom scenarios for the franchise without Weber. If ownership really thought one guy was that important, they'd have already offered a deal he'd have taken if he really is ok staying there. And him signing the offer sheet tells me he's ok staying there. And make no mistake, Weber is not a marketing option like Crosby or Ovechkin. We all know he's a great player, but he obviously isn't going to turn around a franchise single handedly. It would have already happened, or would be much further along than it is. And Nashville still has some good young d-men in their system. If they get players, they can still be a playoff team IMO due to how Trotz seems to get more than the sum of their parts out of his players. The picks received allow things like bringing in more bodies via trade, or moving up in a supposed deep draft, or just using them to deepen the prospect pool.

In a perfect world..I'd love to add Weber for the picks, but in reality..I think a trade may be the way it gets done and the list Bill provided of players seems plausible. I am of the mind that we desperately need a Weber so if a trade needs to happen that doesn't include Cooter, Schenn etc.. then make it happen. My worst case scenario is they match and we end up with nothing but a week of drama to look back on.

If Voracek goes, the issue I have is that we are painstakingly thin on wing now. Maybe that's why we are looking at Doan.
- Hextall271

Losing Jake and then having options to fill out the top line forward lines is a big concern. I understand trying to sign Doan but that's not a guarantee.
I don't trade for Weber. I would make a trade for some of the picks back.
Poile IMO would be better served taking first round picks for this year and next year and trading picks for years 3 and 4 back to the flyers. Then again they can trade those picks to anyone.