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"What If" the Blackhawks catch fire? |
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This headline would have worked out better for me had the Hawks finished off the Coyotes on Sunday night.
However, they did not. They started off hot and then the 'Yotes took over the majority of the play.
I'll have more notes on the game at the end of this blog, but right now, we're going to look at what could happen if Chicago catches fire and find themselves in a playoff spot (or close to) come February.
Right now, the playoff probabilities tool from Hockey-Reference, the Blackhawks have a 21.5% chance of making the playoffs. They are projecting them at 86.6 points.
The 2018-19 Blackhawks finished with 84 points, which was 6 shy of a playoff spot.
It looks like the 2019-20 Blackhawks will need at least 90 points to make it into the postseason.
Based on the above, they don't have to win at insane winning percentage the St. Louis Blues did last year in the 2nd half, but they will need to clip along at a good rate if CHI wants to make the playoffs.
Part one of the "What If" series is the hypothetical situation of what will happen if the Blackhawks continue to win… a lot from now until the trade deadline.
What will Stan do if his team looks like a legit playoff team?
A lot will need to happen from now until the trade deadline if the Hawks were to put themselves into a position where their GM would have this thought going through his brain, but they have looked much better as of late.
This is a surprising development considering Duncan Keith is not even skating yet and is still "week-to-week" according to Colliton. Andrew Shaw (week-to-week as well) and Drake Caggiula (day-to-day) are still out as well.
Health is an obvious factor if the Blackhawks and without getting into in-depth details, the Hawks will also need the following to put themselves into a playoff spot:
* Consistent Offense - the defence has been shaky, but thanks to the goaltending CHI's GAA/game is solid. The Hawks need to be able to rely on an offence. This scoring will need to be led by the top 6; it's a great sign to see Toews and DeBrincat finally heating up.
* Power Play – it needs to be better. They have scored a PP goal in each of the last 3 games, so that's good. Overall, they need the PP to catch fire to give them a better chance night-in-and-night-out.
* Cut down on penalties – the Hawks are the 12th most penalized team in the league with 8:39 PIM/game. While the PK is a much-improved area this year (17th in the league), you can't take that risk on a nightly basis. An interesting thing to note, Kane (26) and Toews (22) are 2nd and 3rd respectively – and uncharacteristically - on the team with PIMs.
So if the Hawks keep winning and picking up points, what could this team look like come April for the postseason?
Well, if the Hawks were to catch fire, that would mean that the team as it's currently constructed gels and is firing on all cylinders. Therefore, I wouldn't expect any major moves to happen leading up to the February 24th trade deadline.
Also, don't expect me to suggest the Hawks should target Taylor Hall. For several reasons, that is never going to happen.
Before we dive into the hypothetical transactions, let's looks at a team that is the Cinderella story from last year, the St. Louis Blues. I want to review the moves of this team because it would be a similar scenario as the Hawks would be in if they get into a Wild Card seed or higher by the end of February.
The Blues only made one trade at the deadline before they went on to win the cup in June – Michael Del Zotto was acquired from the Ducks in exchange for a 2019 6th round pick.
Del Zotto was brought in as an insurance policy only in case the Blues ran into injury issues. He did not play a game in the playoffs.
I would expect if the Blackhawks get on a hot streak that management would be over-the-moon considering the first 30 games of this season.
Stan Bowman would (hopefully) be wise enough to know that, while this team is potentially heading to the playoffs, that it's not a true Stanley Cup contender. Therefore, no rentals or major moves should be made.
Overall, the Blackhawks need more speed. So if anything, I would be calling for the Hawks to grab some depth players with speed and a little jam.
Keep in mind that the Hawks don't have an abundance of cap space; according to CapFriendly, they have 600k+ currently in projected deadline cap space.
One player to use as an example of someone I could see the Hawks acquiring in this fake scenario would be a Miles Wood.
He's big, can skate and has some physicality to him. Also, it's rumoured that NJ is looking to move him.
If not him, I would vote for bringing in someone like that. I wouldn't anticipate any "sexy" names to come in rather the Hawks would just hope that their current squad could continue their torrid pace into the playoffs.
Some might say, "you have to move Erik Gustafsson before you lose him for nothing." Well, no you don't have to move him and if the Hawks are to get hot, his PP presence would likely be a part of that.
The only way I see him being moved in this hypothetical scenario is that if he were to get injured for a majority of this Hawks streak, CHI calls up Boqvist and he takes off, showing management that he's ready to take over #56's shoes/skates.
So, there you have it, if the Hawks catch fire, don't expect much other than less fighting on the message boards.
I know it's boring, but that would be the best-case scenario.
Now, you might be a person that is saying, "Tyler, you're crazy, this Blackhawks team isn't good enough to get on a hot streak like that!"
Well, that may be the case, however, crazier things have happened. Also, this is a completely hypothetical blog. This was a breakdown as to "what if" and "what could be".
If you are looking for drama and controversial fantasy trades, stay tuned to part two, "What If" the Blackhawks flame out.
I will have this out later on in the week.
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A couple more thoughts on the 4-3 SO loss on Sunday night:
* Alex DeBrincat – with 3 goals in his last 3 games, "the Cat" is heating up. The Hawks need him to continue if they have any shot at the playoffs.
* Jonathan Toews – I need to write more "Where art thou, Jonathan Toews?" blogs; since then the Captain has been a difference-maker.
* Calvin de Haan – I was screaming to Stan to sign this guy a year and a half ago, and it looks like I was on to something. With Keith out, de Haan's been making Bowman look like a genius. He's now essentially the Blackhawks #1 D with 23-25 per game. He looks great and will need to continue to play difficult minutes with #2 out.
* Dennis Gilbert – I'm sold. This guy has earned a spot on my team. I'm not saying this just because of the fight where Gilbert stuck up for DeBrincat. Overall, his physicality and defensive play has been very strong. I would send Koekkoek down when Keith returns from injury.
* Robin Lehner – lastly, I'm going to leave you all with this save again:
See ya out there!
TC
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Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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