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Offer sheets are fake-I refuse to believe otherwise

July 31, 2019, 6:40 AM ET [17 Comments]
Ty Anderson
Boston Bruins Blogger •Bruins Feature Columnist • RSSArchiveCONTACT
(Hi, everyone. It’s been a long-ass time since we last spoke. How are you? I hope you’re well.

A lot has changed since you last heard from me. What started out as a little fun hustle and hobby as a teenager on Hockeybuzz in 2010 somehow turned into a full-time job, now for 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston. It’s been great writing all about four Boston pro teams in what is the undeniable golden age of Boston sports. But deep down, I’ve missed writing about the National Hockey League, like, as a whole.

So here we are. Back with HockeyBuzz, where I’ll be writing a pair of weekly columns in between Patriots Super Bowl runs. Tom Brady Forever. That loss to the Eagles never actually happened.)


Just so we're all clear: The Milan Lucic and David Clarkson contracts were successfully (and happily) moved before we saw a real offer sheet on the table this summer. Yes, those Lucic and Clarkson contracts. Then the Lightning moved winger Ryan Callahan (it’s believed he will never play pro hockey again due to a degenerative back issue) and the final year of his once-restrictive $5.8 million per year contract to the Senators in exchange for yet another backup goaltender in Mike Condon. The Bolts now have three of ‘em. The Sens and Bolts also swapped some meaningless draft picks to complete the deal, leading you to believe that the Lightning are really sweating having to trade a fifth-round pick for a sixth-round pick. The Ultimate WGAF swap.

And in this, The Alleged Summer of the Offer Sheet.

Now, I know I’m largely comparing apples to car batteries here. The Oilers woulda done just about anything to get out of that Lucic contract, the Golden Knights needed to ditch Clarkson’s money for a more palatable cap structure, and the Senators would absolutely love to pay a player to not improve their 2019-20 fate. It’s probably one of the only things they’ll do really well next season. The point, however, is that you’re more likely to see a team successfully move an immovable contract or injured body that collects dust on the LTIR than you are to see an actual offer sheet in today’s game.

In other words, I never, ever want to hear another word about offer sheets.

For the rest of my life.

They’re officially not real. It goes Bigfoot, Loch Ness, and offer sheets in the NHL.

(Please, please bring up Montreal’s offer for Sebastian Aho. I’m begging to die laughing. The Canadiens honestly tried stealing Carolina’s franchise center away for $42 million over five years. They didn’t even hit the $10 million AAV mark. They thought bonuses alone would be enough to scare Carolina back to the basement. It was the easiest match in the history of offer sheets. It was fake.)

Of course, the league’s rules on offer sheet compensation creates the problem 11 times out of 10. That’s because it’s designed to ultimately benefit the team attempting to retain their player.

But if a team were ever going to actually put in a real offer sheet to scoop up some real talent, this summer was indeed the year to do it; Toronto’s Mitch Marner. Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine. Tampa Bay breakout star Brayden Point. Hell, you could even make the case that offer sheeting Bruins defenseman Brandon Carlo would have been worth it for some defensively-lacking team given the uncomfortable salary cap situation Don Sweeney and the Bruins find themselves in with Carlo (and Charlie McAvoy, who is not eligible to sign an offer sheet) still unsigned.

Let’s start with Marner. Watching last year’s seven-game series between the Bruins and Maple Leafs, I walked away from almost every game saying that Marner may be the most talented player on the Leafs. Just the way he skates, the way he creates, and the vision he has on the ice is something that’s absolutely unbelievable to watch. He’s also tallied 67 goals and 224 points in 241 NHL games to date. In fact, Marner’s 3.15 point per 60 minutes of all-situation play is the eighth-best mark among all NHLers with at least 4,000 minutes since 2016. The only names above him on that list: Gaudreau, Kessel, Pastrnak, Crosby, Marchand, McDavid, and Kucherov. All superstar, franchise-level talents.

Then there’s Laine. The No. 2 overall pick in 2016, Laine’s scored at least 30 goals in all three of his NHL seasons, has totaled the sixth-most goals in all of hockey over that stretch (110), is second to only Alex Ovechkin in power-play goals (Laine has 44 compared to Ovechkin’s 52), and only Ovechkin has been more productive when talking goals per 60 of all-situation play (Laine’s at 1.62, Ovechkin’s at 1.64). In a game always in need of more finishers, the 6-foot-5 Laine is a natural.

Point? Well, Point may just be the hidden jewel of a loaded Tampa squad that matched the league’s single-season record for victories. After a true breakout in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Point excelled with 41 goals and 92 points in 79 games for the Bolts last year. That was good for the 13th-most points among all skaters last season. Last season made Point just the 24th skater since 2005 to have at least 40 goals, 90 points, and 30 power-play points in the same season.

All three are establishing themselves as legitimate superstars. They’re potential foundational pieces.

All three are 23 and younger. They’re not going away anytime soon.

And most importantly, all three remain unsigned. And tomorrow’s August.

In other words, this market is not sort on high-end talent that elevates your team.

Nor is it short on vulnerable teams that were in legitimate trouble of losing that high-end talent.

Let’s be real: The Leafs were absolutely screwed when it came to successfully re-signing Marner. Everybody knew it, too. But they successfully ditched the Patrick Marleau contract and somehow talked Colorado in retaining half the salary on a defenseman who’s totaled the ninth-most points over the last five seasons. They’ll probably be able to re-up Marner on Day 1 of the regular season when Clarkson and Nathan Horton are moved to the LTIR, though it may take another move. The Lightning were in a tricky spot with Point, but they found a taker for Callahan, and all it really cost them was a fifth-round pick. Re-signing Point will be easy, and there’s a good chance the Bolts will still have some wiggle room once that’s done. And again, even the Bruins would find themselves in trouble if a team came at Carlo with an offer sheet that featured an AAV approaching $6 million.

But nobody’s truly attacked the teams they’re supposed to be competing against for the most difficult trophy in sports. It’s mindblowing, and while it falls under The Old Boys’ Club doing their thing, it should really come down to a simple question: Does any one of these players improve your odds of winning a championship, even at their preferred AAV and picks moved to acquire him?

The answer is yes. A thousand times. Some of them help your team so much that you shouldn’t even consider the price you would be paying, as the odds of you surviving (read as: not getting fired when you failed to elevate your team into anything more than a middling contender) to see the first-round picks you’d keep by not moving on an offer sheet are so low that it’s most certainly worth it.

Worth more than any of these nonsensical paper transactions we’re seeing instead, at least.

Ty Anderson is a writer, columnist, and weird personality for 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston. He has been covering the National Hockey League for HockeyBuzz.com since 2010, and has also been part of the Boston Chapter of the PHWA since 2013. In addition to writing, Ty can occasionally be heard on the air at 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston, and seen and/or heard on the NHL Network every now and then. He will not give you his email, so yell at him on Twitter (@_TyAnderson).
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