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With the Senators being awful right now, a nice way to get optimistic about the future is to talk about the prospects they have in the system. A lot of them have debuted in the NHL this season, and it’s been exciting seeing them play. In the summer, I ranked their 25 best prospects, although that was before the Erik Karlsson trade.
Today I want to do an updated version of that list: one that includes players who are no longer prospect eligible, and one that does not. For reference, here is what my list looked like in August:
1. Brady Tkachuk
2. Logan Brown
3. Filip Gustavsson
4. Christian Wolanin
5. Colin White
6. Jonny Tychonick
7. Filip Chlapik
8. Drake Batherson
9. Alex Formenton
10. Jacob Bernard-Docker
11. Christian Jaros
12. Marcus Hogberg
13. Max Lajoie
14. Jonathan Gruden
15. Aaron Luchuk
16. Nick Paul
17. Gabriel Gagne
18. Julius Bergman
19. Andreas Englund
20. Francis Perron
21. Kevin Mandolese
22. Markus Nurmi
23. Andrew Sturtz
24. Jack Rodewald
25. Parker Kelly
Even in six months, a lot can change. For example, Joey Daccord went from unranked to 13th all of a sudden. Now, in my new rankings, obviously the difference between a few spots isn’t going to be very large, especially considering that my mind can change in just a month or two. If we are including those who have already exhausted their rookie eligibility, here is what my new list would look like (number in bracket is ranking from August):
1. Brady Tkachuk (1)
Has proven that he is already a top-six power forward, and he has lots of room to grow. I was hesitant of him becoming a difference-maker, but I think he’ll reach those heights.
2. Colin White (5)
I had gone back and forth a lot on White since he was drafted, but right now he looks like a solid player. He surpassed Brown on the depth chart because he’s already a top-nine centre at worst.
3. Christian Wolanin (4)
You wouldn’t think it based on the number of games he has played in the NHL, but he is a legitimate top-four defenseman already, with potential for even more.
4. Drake Batherson (8)
Up to 37 points in 33 games in the AHL, which is more than I could have dreamed of coming into the season. He’ll be a very good player for Ottawa.
5. Josh Norris (NR)
Had his season cut short recently, but he was solid in the NCAA with 19 points in 17 games.
6. Logan Brown (2)
Dropping four spots is more due to others rising, although he’d also be higher if he could be more consistent and stay healthy. 26 points in 33 games in Belleville is still very good though.
7. Jacob Bernard-Docker (10)
I’ve become very excited about JBD, so it feels weird to have him this low, but there are lots of great players on this list. The rookie defenseman is already one of UND’s best players.
8. Rudolfs Balcers (NR)
Continuing his solid track record in the AHL and is just beginning to figure it out in the NHL. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t turn into a quality winger.
9. Filip Chlapik (7)
Surprising that he hasn’t been called up yet (although he might soon), as he has 23 points in 34 games. I’m not very bullish on his ceiling, but he’s a good bet to become a regular.
10. Alex Formenton (9)
This might seem like a low ranking, but only because there are lots of other great options ahead of him. The injury this season has cut into his development time, but it won’t hurt him long-term. I love his speed, but he’ll have to show more offensive production in professional hockey.
11. Max Lajoie (13)
He’s been in the NHL, so there’s that. He’s had his moments, but his shot rates are also horrendous. If he gets moved away from Cody Ceci, it’ll be a lot easier to evaluate him. He might end up being a solid third pairing offensive-minded player a la Chris Wideman.
12. Filip Gustavsson (3)
The biggest drop on this list. I’m far from giving up on him, but he’s been awful in Belleville with an .887 SV% in 29 games. Almost everyone above him has had great seasons, so it’s hard to justify keeping him that high.
13. Joey Daccord (NR)
He really he come out of nowhere this season. I had him just outside the top-25 in the summer, but it’s impossible to ignore a .931 SV% in 30 games. He’s also turning 23 in August so people should be cautiously optimistic.
14. Jonny Tychonick (6)
This is a big drop as well, mainly because he hasn’t been nearly as trusted as someone like his teammate JBD. He’s played in just 18 of the 27 games and has four assists to show for it.
15. Christian Jaros (11)
I haven’t been too enamoured with his play in Ottawa, although he could be a decent enough third pairing player. His floor is at least higher than others.
16. Marcus Hogberg (12)
He’s running out of time as he will be 25 in November, but Hogberg has been a bit better in the AHL this year with a .904 SV% (it was higher before allowing six last night). With past success in the SHL, I’m not closing the door on him yet.
17. Angus Crookshank (NR)
Crookshank has been impressive with 22 points in 27 games for UNH, ranking tied for 6th in the NCAA amongst all U20 players.
18. Nick Paul (16)
Paul might not have a future with the Senators, but I’ve been advocating for him this whole season due to his ability to limit scoring chances against.
19. Jonathan Gruden (14)
I was excited to see what Gruden could do this year, but he has disappointed with just 11 points in 28 games. However, a lot of times it takes NCAA players a year to adjust to the level, plus his team’s leading scorer only has 20 points.
20. Kevin Mandolese (21)
He has an .897 SV% in 37 games in Cape Breton. It’s much more difficult to evaluate goalies until they get to the AHL.
21. Jack Rodewald (24)
There’s a small chance that Rodewald could be a good enough depth player in the league, as he sits second on the B-Sens with 34 points in 38 games.
22. Aaron Luchuk (15)
He had an incredibly slow start to the season and wasn’t even producing in the ECHL, but he is now up to 8 points in 16 games in Belleville.
23. Parker Kelly (25)
His production in the WHL hasn’t really gone up too much, with 49 points in 51 games on an insanely good Prince Albert team.
24. Markus Nurmi (22)
He’s taken a step back in Finland, posting just 8 assists in 46 games.
25. Andreas Englund (19)
Englund is what he is at this point...Not really much of a prospect but potentially an NHL call-up.
And if you exclude those who should no longer be considered “prospects,” the list would change once again:
1. Drake Batherson (8)
2. Josh Norris (NR)
3. Logan Brown (2)
4. Jacob Bernard-Docker (10)
5. Rudolfs Balcers (NR)
6. Filip Chlapik (7)
7. Alex Formenton (9)
8. Filip Gustavsson (3)
9. Joey Daccord (NR)
10. Jonny Tychonick (6)
11. Marcus Hogberg (12)
12. Angus Crookshank (NR)
13. Jonathan Gruden (14)
14. Kevin Mandolese (21)
15. Jack Rodewald (24)
16. Aaron Luchuk (15)
17. Parker Kelly (25)
18. Markus Nurmi (22)
19. Andreas Englund (19)
20. Julius Bergman (18)
21. Jordan Hollett (NR)
22. Jakov Novak (NR)
23. Filip Ahl (NR)
24. Luke Loheit (NR)
25. Todd Burgess (NR)
I’ll be sure to do a deeper dive into the farm system in the off-season, but right now I wanted to give a bit of an update on what direction players are heading. The good news is that amongst their legitimately important prospects, almost all of them have had good seasons. The only two in the top half who have been disappointing are Gustavsson and Tychonick, but there are plenty of positives to go around with the rest of the group, especially amongst the best of the best. If we ignore the outside noise, it’s easy to see how the Senators can become good again with these prospects coming up.
As always, I’m sure there will be plenty of discussion in terms of placing players higher or lower on my list, so I look forward to that in the comments.
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