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Part two of five of this series where I rank the Top 25 Senators prospects features nothing but Belleville Senators players.
You can read part one of the series here. Some of these five players will get games in the NHL in the upcoming season, but they’re all in a similar spot development-wise in their careers where they need to step it up in Belleville or else they risk losing their “interesting prospect” status. Let’s take a look at 16th-20th:
20th: Francis Perron, LW, Belleville, 22
I was one of Perron’s biggest fans after his final QMJHL season, and even before that I was excited to see what he could do. He had 76 points in 64 games in his draft+1 (D+1) season, and then put up a whopping 108 in 62 games the following season. As a 7th round pick, he was looking like a potential steal.
There were always questions about his physical game (or lack thereof), and his first season in the AHL was going to be a real test. He had just 26 points in 68 games, but there was hope that he’d take the next step forward this past season. That did not happen though, and before he could get on a roll, his season was cut short after just 44 games. Across two seasons and 112 games, he has a paltry 10 goals.
Due to his track record in the QMJHL, he’s still a prospect worth mentioning, but I’m immensely lower on him than I used to be. As always, I should mention that he hasn’t had the greatest linemates in Belleville/Binghamton, but that doesn’t excuse everything.
19th: Julius Bergman, D, Belleville, 23
It’s pretty crazy that Bergman was the best the Senators could get in the Mike Hoffman trade, as the soon-to-be 23-year old doesn’t have much time to prove himself as a legitimate prospect. He has at least been able to put up decent point totals in the AHL the last two seasons, but his on-ice goal totals have been pretty horrendous:
Obviously we know that goal totals aren’t always indicative of a player’s talent level, but the fact that it is
so bad is a bit alarming. I can’t say I know much about his play in the defensive zone, but at least he should be able to help out on the powerplay:
I’m not counting on Bergman becoming a legitimate prospect due to his lackluster AHL numbers, but one could argue that he’s close to the NHL level and perhaps with a few tweaks he could be a useful bottom pairing sheltered player.
18th: Andreas Englund, D, Belleville, 22
Englund is in a similar spot to Bergman, as they were drafted just six spots apart. As a second round pick, and Ottawa’s first pick in 2014, Englund had some prospect caché for a few years. However, he’s played two seasons in the SHL and two in the AHL since then, and I’m not sure that he is going to amount to much. As with all of these prospects at the bottom of the list, there’s still a chance that he can become a regular, especially because it’s so difficult to tell which low-scoring defensemen are actually effective.
Englund has gotten into six games with Ottawa, and there’s a chance he’ll get into a few more this coming season. As a left-handed defenseman though, it’s hard to see him cracking the full-time lineup anytime soon. Thomas Chabot, Christian Wolanin, Mark Borowiecki, and Ben Harpur are all on the roster, and I can’t see them going anywhere anytime soon.
He has had just 10 points in each of his two AHL seasons with 69 games played each year, so we know that his potential role in the NHL is going to be a third pairing shutdown defender. I’d like to see him put up a few more points, but for what it’s worth, he
was first amongst Belleville defensemen in goals against per 60 last season at 2.9. The upside isn’t really there with Englund, but he’s someone worth giving a shot on a third pairing at some point just to see what he can do.
17th: Gabriel Gagne, RW, Belleville, 22
Gagne is a very interesting case. The Senators liked him so much that they traded up to get him in the 2015 draft despite middling numbers. He was touted as a big power forward (6’5”, 186 lbs) who had the potential to be a physical presence that could also score a lot. His season after getting drafted was not much of an improvement on his previous year, and he dealt with some injuries along the way.
Because he is a late birthday, Gagne was eligible to play in the AHL just one year after being drafted, and it went about as bad as possible. He had just 6 points in 41 games, and even spent 19 games in the ECHL. This past season was a definite improvement, as he led the team in goals with 20 in 68 games---the next closest was Nick Paul with just 14. Despite the solid goal total, he somehow had just five assists.
Now, I’d rather have a player that has 20 goals and 5 assists than a player with 5 goals and 20 assists, but it is a very strange stat line. I think some of that can be explained by the fact that Belleville was so awful last season, and perhaps he was getting extremely unlucky with his linemates. Despite the amazingly low assist total, I’m intrigued by Gagne due to the fact that he was described as a raw prospect three years ago, and he might just take longer than others to develop.
I still need to see more assists for me to fully believe in him as a prospect, and even if that happens, he’s probably more of a third line winger. I’m open to the idea that he is just beginning to realize his potential though, and it’d be nice to see him take another step forward.
16th: Nick Paul, C, Belleville, 23
Paul has been with the Senators for four years now, and this upcoming season is finally put up or shutup time for him. He’s 23, and if he doesn’t begin to be more productive at the AHL level or show that he can be a regular in the NHL, then Ottawa might not even tender him a qualifying offer next summer.
His ceiling is certainly limited considering his career high in points in the AHL is only 37 (and in the OHL it was 66), but he seems to have a higher floor than a forward like Francis Perron. Paul is destined to become a fourth line centre if he ever sticks with Ottawa or another team, but that can still be useful. He isn’t an exciting prospect like he was for one season when he was on Team Canada, but the fact that he’s NHL ready (or close to NHL ready) is an important factor.
When Paul has gotten on a roll in the AHL, he becomes quite the point producer, so if he can be more consistent then the Senators might have a decent depth player on their hands. Not exciting, but there’s potential for usefulness.
Stay tuned for part 3!
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