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Colin White Finding his Game at the NHL Level

December 10, 2018, 10:53 AM ET [12 Comments]
Trevor Shackles
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
You can follow me on Twitter @ShackTS

Coming into the 2018-19 season, one of the most glaring holes on the Senators roster (and there were many) was the lack of a 2nd line centre. Matt Duchene is a fantastic player, but there wasn’t much behind him, especially with Jean-Gabriel Pageau getting injured in training camp. That didn’t mean there were no options though, as the Senators and their fans were hoping for somebody on the roster to step up on that second line role. I thought Logan Brown could be that player, and he still might be good enough in the future.

But for now, Colin White has proved himself capable enough of playing in the top-six.

Through 30 games, White has racked up 19 points, which means he is on pace for 51 points (52 if he didn’t miss a game). That is solid production and certainly good enough to put him in a second-line role. In fact, it puts him tied for 52nd amongst centres in points, which is about an average second-line centre. Last season in the AHL he had just 27 points in 47 games, which put was an average of 47 points in 82 games, so the fact that he has been better in a higher level is surprising. Then again, last season was a disappointment, and most people thought that he was capable of much more.

This season he is showing that extra kick, making him quite the weapon for the Senators. He has been playing with Brady Tkachuk and Mark Stone recently, and the three of them have had fantastic chemistry together. It goes without saying that Stone is going to make players around him much better, and we have to be careful about separating what White is doing on his own, and what Stone is doing to prop him up. After all, Stone made Zack Smith look like a top-six winger for a period of time. Furthermore, Tkachuk has been phenomenal so far as well.

The trio has been by far the best line that has seen extended time together, as they have managed a 50.93 CF%, a +10.3% corsi relative, and have scored eight goals and allowed five. Even their expected goals look good, as they sit at 51.15%. Those numbers might not be eye-popping, but they are when you compare them to the rest of the Senators. When other lines are getting 40% of the shots, anything close to breaking even looks incredible. And White does not appear out of place with these two.

For White specifically, his possession numbers are not great but are better by comparison. His 44.76 CF% is subpar, but it ranks 6th on the team and 4th amongst Senators forwards. Similarly to Tkachuk and Stone, his high-danger numbers are better though, as he sits at 50.41%. What that means is that he and his linemates have been able to create quality scoring chances and limit quality chances against. It’s difficult to decipher how much of an impact he has had on possession numbers because Stone is obviously helping him out, but his numbers without Stone are going to look terrible just because the rest of the roster is quite weak. Perhaps with less extreme linemates it would be easier to figure out the kind of impact he has on the team.

Nevertheless, I found it interesting that White ranks decently well when looking at Evolving Wild’s GAR (goals above replacement) and WAR (wins above replacement) metrics. For GAR, which is based more on actual goals, White ranks fifth on the Senators at 4.00, behind Duchene, Stone, Chabot, and DeMelo. Amongst all NHL forwards, that ranks 72nd. Furthermore, for WAR, which is based more on shots and underlying metrics, he ranks fifth on the team with 0.7 and is 64th amongst NHL forwards. If you subscribe to the idea that there are 93 “first line players” in the NHL (with three on each team), then White ranks as a first-liner by these metrics.

I wouldn’t go that far, but the point is that he has been at worst a second-line centre to begin the season, which is exactly what the doctor ordered. It’s not just his point production either, as he simply looks like a different player. His speed is much more noticeable, and he looks like he is being more creative with the puck in the offensive zone. Yesterday’s assist makes him look like a confident player who has enough speed to get down the wing and make a fantastic pass to Stone:




So yes, playing with Stone is probably making White look better than he really is. But at the same time, the strides he has made are real, and he is certainly an NHL regular at this point. I’m not sure if he can keep up a 50+ point pace for the rest of the season (especially if he ever gets separated from Stone), but even a drop-back to 40-45 points would be fine. Even with his numbers being inflated a bit, I think it’s reasonable to expect more progression from his game as well, so that might cancel things out in terms of his production actually staying the same in the next few years.

White being a 40 point player is a win for the team, and if he can get to 50+ consistently like he is on pace for, then that is better than I could have hoped for. Nobody is really talking about it, but he is actually second in rookie scoring right now, although he has a ways to go behind Elias Pettersson who has 11 more points. It’s very unlikely that he would win the Calder, but being in the conversation is impressive. One thing’s for certain: he is here to stay, and Ottawa desperately needs him.
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