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Win the battle, lose the war

April 2, 2019, 10:00 AM ET [49 Comments]
Todd Cordell
New Jersey Devils Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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Monday was not a good day for the New Jersey Devils. They may have won the battle against New York but they probably lost the war in the process.

Thanks to a handful of key plays – such as Damon Severson pulling a puck off the goal-line to save a goal and preserve a lead – the Devils managed to squeeze out a win in an otherwise even affair against their biggest rivals.

It's easy to get caught up in the emotion of the game and cheer for a win but taking two points did more harm than good.

Making matters worse is a lack of help elsewhere. Despite Calgary's best efforts to lose – they sat Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and their top two defense pairings while playing in the latter half of a road back-to-back – Los Angeles was unable to pull off a win and erase the damage New Jersey did earlier in the evening. They weren't even close. They played OK, at least for the first 40 minutes, but still lost by five(!) in large part due to horrendous goaltending from Jonathan Quick, which is nothing new this season.

The Devils now sit three points ahead of the Kings. Though the latter has an extra game in hand, their chances of passing the Devils seem pretty slim. They'd likely need to win two of three games and that's with the Devils losing out. It's hard to envision that happening after they squandered a golden opportunity for a win against a watered down Calgary team that was playing for nothing.

'What's the difference between finishing 29th and 30th?' Great question, I'm glad you asked.

The difference is a 4.9% less chance of picking in the top-3, and a 25.03% less chance of picking in the top-4. That's sizeable.

'It's no guarantee they get a top-3/4 pick anyway so winning isn't a big deal.' Yes, it is. That's very flawed thinking.

Every single trade deadline, playoff-bound teams make moves to improve their roster. Why? To increase the chances of winning the Stanley Cup. Is it likely Team X is going to win the Stanley Cup? No, but they add to try and give themselves the best chance of doing so.

Last night the Devils hurt their chances of grabbing a top-3 pick, and *really* hurt their chances of grabbing a top-4 pick.

Could they still get a positive result at the lottery? Sure, but the odds of that happening just decreased and the compensation was a meaningless win against the Rangers that everyone will forget about in a couple months.

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