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The Calgary Flames will almost certainly be buyers leading up to the trade deadline. Rightfully so – they’ve done enough under Geoff Ward to earn themselves some help.
With that said, GM Brad Treliving should be cautious not to get too carried away. Particularly if the Flames can’t gain some separation in the Pacific leading up to February 24th.
As currently constructed,
Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects the Flames to finish the season with 92.8 points. That’d be 3rd in the Pacific, and make them one of five teams within the division to finish in the 91-95 range.
Put another way, it’s similarly likely they finish in the 2nd Wild Card spot and draw the Western Conference leading St. Louis Blues – a team with a 17-4-4 record on home soil – as it is that they win a top two seed in the Pacific and draw home ice in Round 1.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying the Flames can’t go anywhere. They’ve had excellent goaltending and their stars have been better in recent months.
I’m just suggesting there are some real concerns on this roster. The Flames have next to no secondary scoring and are the only team holding a playoff spot with a negative goal differential.
That doesn’t exactly scream good idea to trade top futures (1st round picks, quality prospects, etc.) for rentals that may not be with the team come October.
If they’re going to part with those kind of assets, they simply must get bang for their buck. The Flames aren’t the Lightning, Avalanche, Capitals, etc. They are 16th in points percentage. It would be incredibly short-sighted to go all-in this year.
It’s not like they’ve dealt with a ton of injuries or their underlyings indicate they’re unlucky to be where they are. They’re a middling team.
Again, the Flames *can* justify buying but they have to be picky.
If they can get Tyler Toffoli for a 2nd plus a middle-ceiling prospect and believe he can be re-signed within their budget, by all means go ahead.
If they can get Jason Zucker (three years remaining) or Ondrej Kase (RFA after next season), for example, and know they are getting multiple seasons of hockey, it’s much easier to defend paying up to add real pieces right now.
But the Flames should not be parting with a 1st round pick – or other top futures – for a J.G. Pageau-type and then compound the mistake by paying more than he’s worth to keep him around.
Recent posts:
Five potential trade targets for the Flames
David Rittich named All-Star replacement
All aboard the Tyler Toffoli train
Flames sign Rasmus Andersson to long-term extension
My choices for Calgary’s three stars of the month in December
Midseason Vezina Trophy picks
Midseason Norris Trophy picks
Midseason Hart Trophy picks