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As it stands, the New Jersey Devils have a 28.8% chance of moving up in the lottery and walking away with a top-3 pick to show for the disaster that has been this season.
That leaves a 71.2% chance they end up picking in the 4-7 range. Among the handful of players that realistically could, and will, be considered in those spots are Dylan Cozens, Kirby Dach and Peyton Krebs – three WHL forwards I'm going to focus on today.
I'd be remiss not to point out I've done analytics work for Dach's Saskatoon Blades for three seasons now, however, I do my scouting evaluations completely independent of the team and don't feel I allowed any bias into shaping how I feel about Dach or any of the others.
Having seen Dach more times than I can count, and tracked/taken notes on a handful of games for Cozens and Krebs, I'm at the point where I feel comfortable in sharing my thoughts and observations. Thus, today's article.
Let's dive in.
C/W - Dylan Cozens - Lethbridge
I'm going to start with Cozens because I think my opinion differentiates on him most compared to the consensus. A lot of rankings have him ahead of one, if not both, of Dach and Krebs. I don't agree with that. I have him behind both. That's not to say I don't like Cozens at all – I do – but I think he is a little overrated. I talked with someone inside an NHL front office who feels the same way, "I might like the other WHL forwards more. He's not a bad prospect, but I expect he'll be gone by when we draft and I won't be heartbroken."
Yes, he has a pro frame and shot. Yes, his raw production is really good. But I have some concerns, especially when comparing him to Dach and Krebs.
Cozens doesn't look to be a possession driver. He doesn't drive play up ice and through the neutral zone a lot, and when he tries he often skates himself into traffic. He also dumps the puck in, rather than maintaining control, too much for my liking. In terms of raw zone entry totals, or efficiency, he comes nowhere close to Dach or Krebs.
Cozens is also not as involved in facilitating offense. He has pulled off a few highlight reel plays in my viewings, but to a lot of people that would mask the fact he doesn't necessarily do a ton of creating otherwise. I think he is more dependent on others than Dach or Krebs.
Again, he *is* still a good prospect. He just doesn't have the dynamic ability or creativity of someone like Krebs, and I don't think he's nearly as well rounded as Dach.
Personally, I'd be a little disappointed if the Devils – or any team I worked for – drafted him as high as he is projected to go.
C - Peyton Krebs - Kootenay
I love Krebs. Love him. He was asked to facilitate *everything* for his team and he did just that, averaging well over a point per game (the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers fell 16 and 27 points shy of Krebs) and creating seemingly every shift in each game I watched/tracked.
He is a really good skater with quick burst in his first few steps. That helps him generate speed and back the defense off in the neutral zone, which leads to a *ton* of controlled entries. What I especially love about Krebs is his patience with the puck. If there's no easy lane into the offensive zone, he'll slide it over to a teammate or curl back and re-evaluate his options. He won't give it away. In the offensive zone, he'll hold onto the puck for an extra second, change the angle, or do anything else in his power to create a lane for him to get the puck to the net or to a teammate.
His involvement percentage is through the roof – in games I tracked he picked up a primary shot contribution on a little over 55% of the on-ice attempts – and he's a legitimate threat to make something happen every time he has the puck.
Though Krebs is not a big body, he won't shy away from throwing his body around, going to the dirty areas, or battling for pucks against much bigger players. He reminds me of Nico Hischier in that regard.
With regards to his skill and style of play as a whole, there's a feel similar to that of Mathew Barzal. I'm not saying he is/will be Barzal, but that's the vibe you get watching him and he does bring some of that dynamic ability.
I really like Krebs and I think if he played on a better team/put up a few more points that'd come with an improved supporting cast, he'd be getting more hype than he is.
C - Kirby Dach - Saskatoon
Last but not least we have Kirby Dach. In my opinion, it is not a stretch to say he is the best two-way forward in the WHL and perhaps of this entire draft class. He is so complete.
While large in stature, he skates well. He has enough speed that defenders have to back off and respect him. When they do decide to step up and challenge him, he often dances around and makes them look silly. The end result is a lot of controlled entries and some really encouraging numbers in that area (not quite at Krebs' level, but excellent nonetheless).
In the offensive zone, he is a handful to defend. His ability to protect the puck, and to slip around defenders in small spaces, makes it nearly impossible to get the puck from him. So often he's able to elude traffic and buy himself an extra second or two to survey the ice and find an open target, which he almost always hits in stride. He sees seemingly every lane on the ice, and he has the passing ability to consistently get the puck through those small seams. I'd consider him more of a passer than a shooter, however, he does have some good zip on his shot and he started using it more this season.
Without the puck, Dach is as responsible as it gets. You just don't see the attention to detail and commitment from many players, especially at Dach's age. He back-checks as hard as he'd skate on a breakaway, he is absolutely relentless with his stick checks (I've seen him pickpocket opposing players from behind 1,000 times), and he is always in the right position. Any time a defender is in trouble and needs an easy outlet, he's back down low to provide support. He just knows where to be and executes over and over and over again.
I honestly haven't decided if I prefer Dach or Krebs more (I want a couple more games of notes/data on the latter) but I feel comfortable ranking him ahead of Cozens.
I'll be writing more about these three, and numerous others, in the coming weeks and months, but I wanted to share some insight into their games and where I'm at right now. Whether you agree or disagree, I hope you learned something and enjoyed it.
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