Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Pavel Zacha has always been a reliable defensive player in the NHL, particularly on the penalty kill.
What's held him back, and had many rightfully label him a disappointment considering the draft slot, is his inability to produce offense with any consistency.
After two and a half seasons of highly mediocre outputs, Zacha is finally – finally – starting to do that.
Zacha has mustered up 12 points over his last 17 games played, which is solid production. It's even better when you consider the current state of the team.
Unfortunately, there's plenty of reason to believe it is just smoke and mirrors as opposed to the new norm.
While his 5v5 points/60 over the last 17 is ~triple that of his first 43 games, his shot and chance generation numbers are actually a little worse.
In other words, Zacha isn't creating more opportunities. They're just going in at a higher percentage, for himself and his linemates. That's not going to last.
The spike in production isn't entirely due to 5v5 play. Zacha has also upped the ante on the power play. Those numbers aren't sustainable either.
Three of Zacha's four points on the man advantage over the last 17 games are goals. Those have come on just five shots. He has been used in a different role than in the past but it's an understatement to say a usage change won't result in shooting 60%. I mean, Kyle Palmieri has a much better shot and his PP shooting percentage has been within 13-14% in three of the last four years.
So, across the board, Zacha's increased offensive output has more to do with a spike in percentages than improved play.
As nice as it is to see the 21-year-old's name on the scoresheet with more regularity, we probably shouldn't expect it to continue.
Recent Posts
Devils hire Tyler Dellow as VP of Analytics
Win the battle, lose the war
Talking draft v. 1: WHL forwards
Zacha's offensive play leaves little room for optimism
New Jersey Devils Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»