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On Nikita Gusev and an optimal top-6

July 31, 2019, 10:02 AM ET [76 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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The New Jersey Devils' opening night top-6 was fairly easy to project just a few days ago.

Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier, and Kyle Palmieri were destined to remain together on the top line, while Jack Hughes seemed like a good bet to be flanked by Jesper Bratt and free agent signee Wayne Simmonds on line two.

The addition of Nikita Gusev certainly throws a wrench into things, although in a very good way. With Gusev in the mix, and Bratt capable of playing either side, John Hynes now has three legitimate options to play top-6 minutes on both wings.

Hall and Gusev (though right-handed) on the left. Palmieri and Simmonds on the right. Bratt on either.

While it's anyone's guess what Hynes *will* do, I think the combinations I'd pencil in to start are as follows:

Hall - Hischier - Bratt
Gusev - Hughes - Palmieri

I know a lot of people have Bratt and Palmieri listed the other way around. I have my doubts that'd be optimal.

I'm not sure a Gusev, Hughes, Bratt trio would ever record a shot on goal. Seriously. Gusev *can* shoot but he is an extreme pass-first player, as his outputs suggest. He recorded more assists in 2018-19 alone (65) than goals over the last three years combined (63).

Hughes *can* shoot but he is a pass-first player, too. In 2018-19 he registered 46 goals and 114 assists, although his shot contribution numbers were more even than that distribution suggests.

Bratt's production is also very assist heavy (21 goals, 47 assists in 123 NHL games) and he has attempted 5v5 shots at a lesser rate than the likes of Marcus Johansson, Drew Stafford, Brian Boyle, Pavel Zacha, Ben Lovejoy and Sami Vatanen, among others, since entering the league.

I think the three of them on one line could lead to overpassing and, quite frankly, would be a waste of their talents.

Hall, Hischier, and Bratt have spent time together and showed encouraging signs, controlling 53.58% of the expected goals over a ~400 minute span. Bratt's tendency to pass-first meshes well with Hall and Hischier, who are willing shooters ranking 2/23 and 6/23 on the Devils in attempts per 60 over the last two seasons.

Gusev and Hughes are creative, dynamic passers so it only makes sense to put a capable scorer like Palmieri alongside them.

Hynes will no doubt mix and match lines in training camp but I think Hall/Hischier/Bratt and Gusev/Hughes/Palmieri could very well be the optimal top-6.

September can't come soon enough.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com

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