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With absolutely nothing happening in the hockey world right now, and for the foreseeable future, I’ve decided to take the plunge and write player profiles for each member of the New Jersey Devils.
As was the case when I did them last summer, we’ll be looking at the season they just put together and expectations moving forward.
I’ve written up 20 players thus far, with Dakota Mermis being the most recent.
Today we’re going with Michael McLeod.
Counting stats: 12 games played, two points (zero goals, two assists), 10:14 average time on ice
5v5 underlyings: 1.02 points/60, -3.46 CF% Rel, +29.84 GF% Rel, -1.29 xGF% Rel, 107.6 PDO
2019-20 review: Mikey McLeod had a very strange season, completely mixed with positives and negatives.
We’ll start with the positives. Of the 23 points he recorded in Binghamton, 20 were primary. All 20 were at even-strength as well. Nathan Bastian (21) and Janne Kuokkanen (23) were the only two B-Devils to record more primary points at even-strength and they both played at least nine more games. On a per game basis, McLeod was the top even-strength point producer on the roster – ahead of Kuokkanen, Bastian, Joey Anderson, and all other notables.
During his time with the big club McLeod also *looked* more controlled than in previous years. Better yet, the Devils out-scored opponents 6-2 with him on the ice at 5v5. All of that is encouraging.
Now for the bad news. In terms of raw outputs, McLeod had 23 points in 47 AHL games. That’s not exactly eye-popping for a 22-year-old four seasons removed from being selected just outside the top-10. He had only two points with the big club and still hasn’t scored a goal through 33 games.
Offensive upside – particularly scoring – was always a question mark for McLeod and those concerns appear very real. He has just 14 goals through 108 AHL games, and 14 goals over 141 professional games. One goal every 10 games is not great.
Neither was his primary point efficiency. He averaged 1.61 primary points per 60, which slotted him 5th on Binghamton – well behind Kuokkanen (2.32), Anderson (2.09), Boqvist (1.98), and Brett Seney (1.94).
What was also discouraging from this season: McLeod’s on-ice numbers in the NHL. While the goal differential was surprisingly there, all the key metrics suggest that was far from deserved. The Devils took just 40.63% of the shot attempts with McLeod on the ice and they were out-chanced 58-44 (43.14 SCF%). Call me crazy but I don’t expect teams to score 75% of the goals when they take only ~40% of the shots and ~43% of the chances. That’s just me.
All told, there were several positives and negatives in McLeod’s season. You can choose which approach – glass half empty or glass half full – you want to take.
Personally, I’m not going out of my way to make excuses for a 12th overall pick who seems more likely to start his Draft+5 season in Binghamton than New Jersey.
Fun fact(s): John Hayden (0.37 per 60) and Pavel Zacha (0.37 per 60) were the only Devils forwards to generate expected goals at a lesser rate than McLeod (0.39 per 60).
2020-21 outlook: I think McLeod is going to enter camp the same way he did last season. He’ll be given a chance to earn a spot if he really performs well but, realistically speaking, that’s probably not going to happen.
As the Devils are currently constructed, McLeod would be a decent bet to make the team as a 4th liner/13th forward. The key words there are currently constructed.
That’s assuming the Devils don’t really add anybody and I think that’s a bad assumption. Be it Tom Fitzgerald or somebody else, I expect the Devils’ GM to be pretty active this off-season.
Defense is the key area of concern, of course, but the team needs help up front as well and I think they’re going to go out and get it.
Only a couple of forward spots will be determined by camp and guys like Kuokkanen and Anderson probably enter with a leg up over McLeod. Their performance dictates as much.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com
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