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Here are a few things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Columbus Blue Jackets:
1. Kick ‘em while they’re down
The Blue Jackets have fallen on hard times and to no fault of their own. They’ve been absolutely decimated by injuries all season long. It’s getting to the point where things are completely out of hand and they don’t have enough juice to overcome it. That’s showing in the results as the Blue Jackets have dropped 10 of the last 12 games. A lack of firepower is a big reason; only four teams have scored fewer goals during this stretch.
That’s why it is key for the Flames to get off to a good start at home and net the first goal or two. The Blue Jackets just don’t have the firepower to score goals in bunches, or the skill and creativity to power through a structured, defensive shell when they’re trailing. Getting an early lead is always important but I think especially so to a Columbus team using the likes of Devin Shore, Stefan Matteau and Riley Nash in top-9 roles.
2. Controlling the danger zone
The key to victory, by and large, is getting more chances than your opponent. In particular, Grade A chances. That’s something the Flames have done extremely well of late. They’ve controlled 56.14% of the high-danger looks (5v5) over the last 12 games, which is 5th most in the NHL.
Meanwhile, this battered Blue Jackets team has taken just 47.67%. That slots them 23rd, barely ahead of a horrendous New Jersey Devils team.
If the Flames can once again control a larger share of the Grade A looks, and have the more talented players taking them, I like their odds of picking up another much-needed win.
3. Winning the 5v5 battle
The Flames likely need to out-score the Blue Jackets at 5v5 because it’s going to be difficult to win on special teams. Why, you might ask? The Blue Jackets simply don’t take penalties.
They’ve spent 289 minutes shorthanded this season. Only Winnipeg and New York (I) have bested them in that area, and the latter is five minutes behind Columbus with two games in hand.
Making matters worse: the Blue Jackets are great at killing off the penalties they do take. They’re a top-5 team in terms of shot suppression, and a top-3 side when it comes to limiting expected goals.
They take very few penalties, and they don’t give up many chances on the PK. This is probably not a spot where the PP will make noise.
4. An epic heater
Leon Draisaitl. Mika Zibanejad. Kevin Fiala. RNH. Nikita Kucherov. David Pastrnak. Kyle Connor. Artemi Panarin. Those are the only players in the league with more points than Mikael Backlund since February 1st.
While Backlund is not going to continue scoring at this absurdly high pace, it’s very evident he’s benefiting from the move back to center. Him finding his game there has completely revitalized the offense and given Calgary the consistent secondary scoring they need behind Johnny Gaudreau.
Backlund’s line is clearly firing on all cylinders right now, and they’ll be backed by Mark Giordano at even-strength for much of the night, so perhaps they’ll be able to keep the streak alive.
5. Here to stay
Rasmus Andersson has played a top-4 role nightly since Travis Hamonic went down with an injury. I think he’s excelled. His defensive play has been sound regardless of partner and he’s also chipped in on the scoresheet.
Andersson is playing a lot with Noah Hanifin and, quite honestly, I think he is doing a much better job than Hamonic did in that role. Whether you’re looking at Corsi, Expected Goals, or actual goals, the numbers back that up.
With the way Andersson is playing, and solidifying P2 behind Mark Giordano, I don’t think you can move him down the lineup. The Flames may not be paying Andersson as a top-4 D until next season, but it sure seems like time to use him like one.
Projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Andrew Mangiapane - Mikael Backlund - Matthew Tkachuk
Milan Lucic - Sam Bennett - Dillon Dube
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Tobias Rieder
T.J. Brodie - Mark Giordano
Noah Hanifin - Rasmus Andersson
Derek Forbort - Erik Gustafsson
David Rittich
Columbus
Devin Shore - P.L. Dubois - Emil Bemstrom
Nick Foligno - Boone Jenner - Gustav Nyquist
Stefan Matteau - Alex Wennberg - Riley Nash
Eric Robinson - Kevin Stenlund - Ryan MacInnis
Zach Werenski - David Savard
Ryan Murray - Markus Nutivaara
Vladdy Gavrikov - Andrew Peeke
Joonas Korpisalo
Puck drop is just after 8:30 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on Sportsnet Everything and FS-O.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
Recent posts:
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Reviewing Calgary’s trade deadline moves
Calgary’s three stars of the month for January
Flames sign Rasmus Andersson to long-term extension
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