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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Nashville Predators:
1. Controlling the game
Very few defense pairings can completely dominate while going up against stiff competition. The Roman Josi - Ryan Ellis duo is one of the exceptions. They own an absurd +21 goal differential at 5v5 and have helped the Predators control nearly 58% of the Expected Goals. They’re obviously an extremely gifted offensive pairing but they’re also quite capable of taking care of things in their own zone. The Predators are giving up just 2.1 goals, and 1.94 expected goals, per 60 minutes with Josi - Ellis on the ice. They’re likely going to be glued to the Johnny Gaudreau line at 5v5 so it might be tough for them to get a lot done. Lines 2-4 will have to step up.
2. Mikael Backlund is awake
Backlund has been an elite two-way player since the very second he was moved back to center. Yes, elite. Backlund ranks 1st on the Flames in Corsi (57.97 CF%), Expected Goals (66.73%) and Goals (63.16%) over the last 10 games. He’s significantly tilting the ice in Calgary’s favor, and he’s piling up the points in the process. Backlund has five goals (4th in the NHL) and 10 points (2nd to Sebastian Aho) at 5v5 during this stretch. On the road he won’t have to go up against the opposing team’s best players, which bodes well for his chances of staying hot.
3. A good PP spot for Calgary
Many are wondering why Nashville – a team with so much talent on paper – is underachieving this season. Special teams have a lot to do with it. Their power play is not good, and their penalty kill is somehow even worse. In terms of rate numbers they rank bottom-10 in expected goals against – indicating they give up a lot of chances – and dead last in goals against. They’re giving up nearly 10 (9.7) per 60 minutes of play.
The Flames, for all their faults, are in the top half of the league in generating expected goals on the man advantage. I think the addition of Erik Gustafsson will only help, as will Mark Giordano’s return to the lineup. This is an area they could, and should, do damage in.
4. The captain’s return
As I just alluded to, Mark Giordano is expected to play tonight. The Flames were a below average team in almost every key defensive metric without Giordano, and Travis Hamonic, so his return is certainly a welcomed sight. They’re still not quite at full-strength, however, Giordano will really help stabilize things and give the Flames an above average group of six.
While they do have their flaws, the team is in pretty good shape if Derek Forbort and Erik Gustafsson make up the bottom-pairing. Forbort is a capable defensive defender and Gustafsson put up 60 points a season ago.
This probably isn’t an ideal spot for Nashville’s wonky offense to get going.
5. An underrated sniper
One guy the Flames really need to be worried about tonight is Craig Smith. He doesn’t get much fanfare but he is a really effective offensive player. He has averaged 1.24 goals per 60 minutes at 5v5 this season, which slots him 25th in the NHL – just ahead of names like Max Pacioretty, William Nylander, Elias Pettersson and Evgeni Malkin. He is a really efficient goal scorer. That makes sense when you consider he sits 5th in expected goals/60 and 22nd in attempts/60. Smith generates quantity and quality. Playing in the bottom-6, Smith usually gets softer matchups and I expect that to be the case again in this one. We’ll see if he can take advantage.
Projected lineups:
Calgary Flames
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Andrew Mangiapane - Mikael Backlund - Matthew Tkachuk
Milan Lucic - Sam Bennett - Dillon Dube
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Tobias Rieder
T.J. Brodie - Mark Giordano
Noah Hanifin - Rasmus Andersson
Derek Forbort - Erik Gustafsson
David Rittich
Nashville Predators
Calle Jarnkrok - Matt Duchene - Viktor Arvidsson
Filip Forsberg - Kyle Turris - Mikael Granlund
Rocco Grimaldi - Nick Bonino - Craig Smith
Colin Blackwell - Ryan Johansen - Colton Sissons
Roman Josi - Ryan Ellis
Jarred Tinordi - Mattias Ekholm
Dan Hamhuis - Dante Fabbro
Juuse Saros
Puck drop is just after 8:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-TN.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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