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Five things to watch for when the New Jersey Devils take on the San Jose Sharks
1. Bleeding shots
The Devils are 7-3-0 over the last 10 games, suggesting they’ve been playing good hockey. That’s, uh, not exactly true. They’re giving up 67.36 shot attempts and 34.27 scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. Both of those totals rank them dead last. They’re also controlling a hair over 40% of the expected goals, putting them in the same ballpark as Detroit and Anaheim. Not great! The reason they’ve been winning games is, by and large, goaltending. Mackenzie Blackwood has played lights out. Even Cory Schneider was strong last game.
San Jose has lost a lot of their best players due to injury or trade. Even so, they’ve still routinely out-chanced opponents of late. I’d expect that to be the case again in this one with the way the Devils are defending.
2. Will Mackenzie Blackwood stay hot?
Blackwood has won seven of his last eight starts and deserves a lot – all? – of the credit for that. He has posted a .920 save percentage or better in all of his wins and a .940 SV% or better in six consecutive starts. He is giving the team all-world goaltending each and every night. If that continues, the Devils have a good shot at grabbing another win tonight. If he hovers around .900, he’s likely giving up three or four goals based on the shot volume against. I’m not sure the Devils have the firepower to win if that’s the case; they need Blackwood on his game yet again to have a chance.
3. Hitting a new level
I don’t think many Devils are playing really well right now. Jesper Bratt is one of the exceptions. He has been very productive of late, piling up five goals and eight points over his last 10 games. His shot and chance generation numbers are on the rise, and his on-ice metrics are encouraging. The Devils have out-chanced and out-scored their opponents with him on the ice, which is difficult to do given the current state of the team. I don’t think he is going to be scratched any time soon.
4. Separating the big line
Alain Nasreddine has Jack Hughes playing top line wing because a) he wants him to learn from two-way stud Nico Hischier up close and personal and; b) he wants Hughes playing with gifted offensive players to help get him going. I don’t necessarily agree with Hughes being used as LW1 but I think Nasreddine could at least justify trying it out.
He has done that and the returns are shockingly bad. The Devils are generating just 32 attempts(!) and 19 chances per 60 minutes with that trio on the ice.
For perspective of how absurd that is, the Miles Wood - Pavel Zacha - Wayne Simmonds line averaged 46 attempts and 21 chances per 60 minutes. Call me crazy but I don’t think that trio should be generating offense at a better rate than a line featuring two top picks and Kyle Palmieri.
I don’t know if Hughes is uncomfortable playing wing, can’t handle top minutes, or just isn’t meshing with Hischier and Palmieri but it is crystal clear something is wrong.
If they don’t turn things around – and fast – I’d be looking to shake things up.
5. A glimmer of competence
New Jersey’s defense is a wasteland right now. There really aren’t many positives to be drawn. The Dakota Mermis - Damon Severson pairing has quietly been playing well, though. Three games is three games but they have a positive shot differential, are +8 in terms of chances, and +3 in the goal department. Almost any pairing Nasreddine uses is getting torn apart – understandably so given the personnel they’re going with – but the Mermis - Severson duo has handled itself well thus far. I’m interested to see if they can handle up over a larger body of work.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey
Jack Hughes - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri
Jesper Bratt - Pavel Zacha - Nikita Gusev
Miles Wood - Travis Zajac - Joey Anderson
Kevin Rooney - Michael McLeod - John Hayden
Mirco Mueller - P.K. Subban
Dakota Mermis - Damon Severson
Freddy Claesson - Connor Carrick
Mackenzie Blackwood
San Jose
Evander Kane - Logan Couture - Kevin Labanc
Timo Meier - Joe Thornton - Dylan Gambrell
Noah Gregor - Alexander True - Marcus Sorensen
Antti Suomela - Joel Kellman - Stefan Noeson
Radim Simek - Brent Burns
M.E. Vlasic - Mario Ferraro
Jacob Middleton - Tim Heed
Aaron Dell
Puck drop is just after 10:30 p.m. eastern on MSG and NBCSCA.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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