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Here are five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the St. Louis Blues:
1. Goaltending duel, anyone?
David Rittich and Jordan Binnington are having almost identical seasons. They both have above average save percentages (.913 vs .912), and they’ve both excelled at the same thing: stopping high-danger shots.
Rittich owns an .856 SV% vs Grade A looks. Only four of 56 eligible goaltenders – 750+ minutes – have fared better than Rittich in that regard. With an .860 SV% vs Grade A shots, Binnington just so happens to be one of them.
Neither team gives up a ton – St. Louis less so, as you’d expect – but their starters have proven more than capable of cleaning up the big messes made in front of them.
UPDATE: Cam Talbot will get the nod in goal tonight. His save percentage (.922) is a little higher than Rittich's and Binnington's. He doesn't fare as well vs HD shots (.821 SV%), however, he's still above average in that regard.
This could still be a very good matchup.
2. All eggs in the two baskets
The Flames have a big problem. They’ve very top heavy offensively. Derek Ryan is the only regular in the bottom-6 who is producing consistently at 5v5. He actually sits tied for 1st on the Flames in full-strength points so, in a way, his promotion is warranted. He’s earned more minutes. The issue with giving them to him is that now the bottom-6 is even more useless offensively. Just look at the goal outputs of Calgary’s projected 3rd and 4th lines.
Lucic (1) - Backlund (1) - Dube (4)
Bennett (4) - Jankowski (1) - Rieder (1)
Yikes.
The Blues are one of the best defensive teams in the league and, as mentioned above, Binnington is putting together a really good season. This hardly seems like the spot for Calgary’s bottom-6 to get back on track. The big lines simply must come through for the Flames to have a chance tonight.
3. Push the pace
St. Louis likes to play slow. Very slow, in fact. On a per-60 basis, they have averaged fewer than 100 combined 5v5 shot attempts over the last 10 games. Their Corsi pace is 30th in the league during that span.
Calgary has played a much different style. They rank 4th in attempts/60 and 2nd in combined attempts/60 over the last 10, averaging nearly 120. They’re playing fast, high-event hockey.
Tonight the Flames are at home and they have fresh legs coming off an extended break. St. Louis, on the other hand, is in the latter half of a road back-to-back. Already prone to low-event games, the Blues will be even more keen on playing that way.
They’re not built to play run-and-gun hockey, especially without Vladimir Tarasenko. The Flames have to try and take advantage of that. Push the pace and get the Blues out of their comfort zone.
4. Attacking on the PK
St. Louis is a very good power play team. Their chance generation numbers are strong and they score goals at a higher rate than all but Edmonton and Tampa Bay. The one concern: they are also more prone to giving offense back than other teams. While up a man, the Blues rank 24th in chances against/60 and 28th in terms of high-danger looks.
The Flames have a couple adept shorthanded chance generators – Mikael Backlund being the big one – and this could be a matchup for them to make noise.
5. An elite top pairing
Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie are generally the best defense pairing in any game Calgary’s involved in. Not tonight.
Alex Pietrangelo is having a Norris-caliber season and his numbers are especially strong alongside Justin Faulk. The Blues have taken 58.1% of the attempts, 59.3% of the expected goals, and 62.5% of the high-danger chances with this duo patrolling the blue line. They’re very good at tilting the ice and limiting what opponents generate offensively.
Geoff Ward has the ability to control matchups and should do everything he can to keep Calgary’s top offensive players away from this pairing. If the top line, for example, sees a lot of Pietrangelo, they’re going to have a tough time creating offense – and we already know the 3rd and 4th lines are unlikely to make anything happen. The Flames would essentially become a one line team.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Matthew Tkachuk - Elias Lindholm - Andrew Mangiapane
Johnny Gaudreau - Derek Ryan - Sean Monahan
Milan Lucic - Mikael Backlund - Dillon Dube
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Tobias Rieder
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
St. Louis (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Jaden Schwartz - Brayden Schenn - Jordan Kyrou
Zach Sanford - Ryan O’Reilly - David Perron
Alex Steen - Robert Thomas - Tyler Bozak
Oskar Sundqvist - Jacob De La Rose - Ivan Barbashev
Alex Pietrangelo - Justin Faulk
Jay Bouwmeester - Colton Parayko
Vince Dunn - Robert Bortuzzo
Jordan Binnington
Puck drop is just after 9 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SNW, SNP, and FS-MW.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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