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G39 Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Now or never

April 4, 2021, 11:40 AM ET [51 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Toronto Maple Leafs:

1. Shot volume is key. I realize Michael Hutchinson has played well this season. Hats off to him. But I’m not sure I’d bet on that continuing. I mean, we have years of data that suggests he’s somewhere between a mediocre No. 2 and a good No. 3 goaltender. Calgary’s made a habit of looking subpar goaltenders look like all-stars this season but I think a big part of that is they simply haven’t tested their opponent enough. It’s easier to play above your head when you don’t have to do it for a long period of time. Put another way, a subpar goaltender has a much better chance of putting up good numbers vs 24 shots than 34 shots. When the volume increases, there’s a better chance of playing to the talent level. Obviously, I’m not suggesting the Flames throw soft wristers at Hutchinson as soon as they gain the blueline. I just don’t think they should be overselective and pass up good looks to try and get a great one. Take what’s there and really make Hutchinson work.

2. Defend. The. Net. Toronto has been insanely good at generating top-tier chances at the doorstep, especially of late. Emphasis on insanely good. At 5v5, Zach Hyman and Auston Matthews are tied for 1st in Grade A chances over the last 10 games. 3rd place? John Tavares. 6th place? Mitch Marner. Yes, you’re reading this correctly. Four of the NHL’s top-6 Grade A chance generators over the last 10 play for the Maple Leafs. They may not get to the net by brute force, but they’re great at picking teams apart with precision passing and finding soft spots in the defense. The Flames best be positionally sound, and assertive, or David Rittich is going to face an extremely difficult workload.

3. Make a save. Believe it or not, the Flames have played pretty well defensively of late. Yes, there are still issues but they rank 8th in chances against/60 *and* expected goals against/60 over the last 10. They’re not giving up shot volume either (also 8th). Despite that, the goals continue to flow for opponents. Only three teams have given up more goals/60 than Calgary (3.12) during that span. They’re allowing more than a full goal per 60 above what is expected (1.98). Again, the defense has not been perfect but the lack of consistency between the pipes has made it look a lot worse than it is. As I’ve said a million times in the last few weeks, the Flames aren’t going to pile up the goals under Darryl Sutter so they best keep them out. That’s not really possible if they can’t get a save. The goaltenders need to play better.

4. Making up ground. Beating the Maple Leafs at 5v5, barring poor goaltending, is going to be difficult. It just is. They haven’t given up many chances of late, and we all know the firepower they possess offensively. That (likely) means the Flames will need to have some success on the power play in order to win. The good news is they’re getting Toronto at a good time. Their PK ranks 21st in xGA/60 over the last 10 games. They are giving up looks and, again, I’m not sure Hutchinson is the ideal goaltending to have cleaning up mistakes. The Flames have to take advantage.

5. Time to regress. Sean Monahan isn’t a great player. He doesn’t offer much defensively or in the neutral zone. Essentially, he’s just a scorer. But he is a good scorer; better than he’s been this season. Monahan is currently shooting 8.5%. His career low is 13.3% and his career average is 14.5%. Unless he magically can’t shoot a puck anymore, it’s fair to expect more from him moving forward; especially if he continues to get chances. Believe it or not, he leads the team in high-danger looks over the last 10. And he has nothing to show for it. That’s going to change sooner than later.

Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com

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