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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Edmonton Oilers:
1. Getting to the paint. Boston. Philadelphia. Those are the only teams in the NHL that have generated (5v5) Grade A chances at a lesser rate than Calgary over the last 10 games. As I’ve written about time and time again, the Flames’ offense is based entirely upon point shots and getting traffic to the net/pouncing on rebounds. They’re not doing that and, thus, they’re not generating scoring opportunities. One would think their place in the standings, coupled with a game against their biggest rivals, will bring out some urgency in them to get to their spots. We’ll see if that’s the case,
2. Stay out of the box. Everyone knows discipline is key against the Oilers. Their power play is absolutely lethal and if you give them more than, say, three opportunities to work in a game, you’re putting your chances of winning at serious risk. That’s doubly true for the Flames right now. They’re having severe issues on the penalty kill. Over the last 10 games, the Flames actually rank 29th in high-danger chances against per minute while shorthanded. They’re giving up a ton of good looks and, despite having a few days off due to a COVID-induced postponement, I don’t know that there’s much reason to expect a magical fix ahead of tonight’s game.
3. A quality start. Jacob Markstrom started the season in strong fashion but he’s been off for a while now. We’ve reached the point where he’s not even giving the Flames average goaltending. He ranks 68/77 in Goals Saved Above Expectation, per Evolving-Hockey. That’s simply not good enough. The Flames don’t score much so if they’re not getting saves at a decent clip, they’re not going to win. Markstrom has to find a way to get back on track – and fast – if the Flames are going to have *any* chance of even sniffing a playoff spot. I realize making it is unlikely but the thing about this season is you’re facing the teams you’re chasing every night. Ground can be made up if you go on a run. And, again, the Flames need Markstrom at the peak of his powers to do it. If he keeps playing the way he’s played of late, the Flames are much more likely to finish last in the division than 4th.
4. Top dogs need to step up. I bring news; and not good news. Among Flames dressing every night, Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson, Mark Giordano, and Sean Monahan are the worst players in terms of Expected Goals For% over the last 10 games. Put another way, opponents are kicking the Flames’ teeth in when those guys are on the ice. That was supposed to be their top pairing and top offensive duo so that’s not exactly good news. We all know the Flames are shallow. If their ‘stars’ are going to get dominated like that, there’s just no way this team can stay afloat. They have to give the Flames more.
5. Stars and scrubs. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have combined for 23 points at 5v5 over the last 10 games. After that duo, the team’s leading producer up front is recently waived Tyler Ennis with three points. The Oilers are getting absolutely nothing from any of their forwards beyond the big two – even RNH is struggling – so if the Flames can find a way to slow them down at all, they should be in good hands. They need to keep good gaps, have constant back pressure, and force them to defer to their teammates. They’ll still make plays, of course, but you want the puck out of their hands in the Grade A areas as often as possible.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com
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