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G37 Calgary Flames vs Winnipeg Jets: Aiming for .500

March 29, 2021, 11:19 AM ET [22 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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Five things to watch for when the Calgary Flames take on the Winnipeg Jets:

1. Which guy shows up? Jacob Markstrom started the season very strongly for the Flames. His numbers were excellent and, just watching, it seemed he kept the Flames in a lot of games they didn’t necessarily deserve to be in. That hasn’t been the story for a while now, though. Since February 1st, Markstrom ranks 29/36 eligible goaltenders in 5v5 save percentage. He looks even worse when facing quality shots. Markstrom sits 32/36 in high-danger save percentage during that time. The Flames have tried to tighten up, and play slower, under Darryl Sutter but it won’t much matter what they do if Markstrom doesn’t play well. He needs to get back on track.

2. The super line. Last game Sutter had Elias Lindholm, the most talented ‘center’ on the roster, play between the best two-way wingers in Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane. Unsurprisingly, they handled the toughs (WPG1); and they took them to the cleaners. Winnipeg’s top line of Paul Stastny, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler combined to post a 21 CF% and 17 xGF%. This while, again, spending most of their time against Lindholm and co. The Jets’ ‘top’ trio (I actually like the P.L. Dubois line better) is very talented but they can be had and they most certainly were last time out. If Calgary can neuter them again at 5v5, it’d go a long way towards getting another win.

3. Puck management is key.If you throw it away all the time, you’re going to lose more often than not. But it’s especially important against a team like the Jets. They’re somewhat of a park the bus team. They go into a shell, try and take the middle of the ice away, and then explode in numbers the second an opportunity arises. They feast off teams on the rush. That’s how they create the majority of their offense. The key for Calgary is to not play into that with poor puck management. They need to make quick, smart decisions and keep the puck out of danger. If they try forcing things that aren’t there, or float a soft pass cross-ice, they’re going to pay for it.

4. Something has to give. The Calgary Flames rank 27th in high-danger chances over the last 10 games. They’re not generating much quality and they’re not scoring on the chances they do get, ranking 26th in SH% on Grade A opportunities in that time. The good news is Winnipeg’s giving up quality in bulk. Only five teams have given up more Grade A looks over the last 10 games. Connor Hellebuyck is a problem, but getting high-danger looks *shouldn’t* be too problematic for the Flames. They just need to capitalize on them.

5. Get to the paint. Noah Hanifin, Mark Giordano, Mikael Backlund, and Juuso Valimaki. Those are the Flames’ four leaders in shot attempts over the last 10 games. Clearly, they’re taking a ton of point shots, which isn’t necessarily surprising. Sutter likes going low-to-high and crashing the net. They’re not having a ton of trouble with the first part. But getting to those high-danger areas and pouncing on 2nd chance opportunities has been a problem. I don’t think Sutter’s style is going to change any time soon so Calgary’s forwards have to find a way to fight through contact and get those rebound looks. We’ll see if they can finally break through and do it against a team that generally isn’t great at cleaning up the trash.

Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com

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