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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Philadelphia Flyers:
1. A deceiving record
The Flyers are 12-13-3 on the year and they've won just three of the last 10 games. Though their record suggests otherwise, the Flyers aren't a dumpster fire. At least they haven't played like one of late.
Over the last 10 games, they have a 53.27 Corsi For% (5th), 52.21 Scoring Chance For% (10th), and 54.44 High-Danger Corsi For% (8th) at 5v5.
For perspective, the Flames own a 51.15 CF% (12th), 51.92 SCF% (11th), and 51.01 HDCF% (11th) over the same span.
The difference in those 10 games, by and large, is goaltending. Mike Smith and David Rittich combined to post a .927 save percentage (5v5) while the revolving door in Philadelphia managed a .891 save percentage. They'd likely be very close to a playoff spot if they had the luxury of even mediocre goaltending during this recent run of games.
If you're expecting the Flames to come out and dominate at 5v5, you'll probably be disappointed.
2. A special teams mismatch
The Flyers were horrendous on the PK a season ago and absolutely nothing has changed this year. Only two teams – Ottawa and Chicago – give up more power play goals per 60 minutes on the kill, which is far from surprising given Philadelphia sits 26th in xGA/60 and they have horrible goaltending.
This is a really good spot for a red-hot power play unit that has converted 18 times over the last 21 games.
3. Matthew Tkachuk's shooting
For whatever reason, Tkachuk is not shooting much this year. Be it attempts, shots on goal, or scoring chances, his rate numbers are down across the board.
It's hard to argue with the results – 33 points in 31 games – but I think he may need to alter his approach tonight. Austin Czarnik and Derek Ryan aren't exactly natural goal-scorers; spoon-feeding them passes probably won't take the team very far. I'd like to see Tkachuk be a little more selfish when he finds himself in good shooting spots
4. Matchups
The Flyers dropped Sean Couturier to the 2nd line in an effort to balance the offense and give the team two top lines. It's easy to see why.
With Travis Konecny and Claude Giroux together, the Flyers average 72 attempts/60 and 4.2 goals/60.
With Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek together, the Flyers average 67 attempts/60 and 3.5 goals/60.
Bill Peters generally goes with the Tkachuk line + Mark Giordano pairing to against the opposing team's top trio. With Philadelphia having two excellent scoring lines, I'll be interested to see if Peters changes things up and sticks one of his top defensive units on each.
5. James Neal's scoring woes
James Neal is the 4th highest paid player on the roster. James Neal has not recorded one (1) 5v5 point over the last 17 games. Not one. I don't care if he's not playing with any of the team's top-4 forwards. Does that hurt? Of course. It's not optimal from his perspective but it's not like he is playing with a pair of goons. The guy is being paid a ton of money to produce offense and he is legitimately contributing nothing. At some point, the excuses have to go out the window and he needs to step up.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Derek Ryan - Austin Czarnik
Andrew Mangiapane - Mark Jankowski - James Neal
Sam Bennett - Alan Quine - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith/David Rittich
Philadelphia (via dailyfaceoff.com)
James van Riemsdyk - Claude Giroux - Travis Konecny
Michael Raffl - Sean Couturier - Jakub Voracek
Scott Laughton - Nolan Patrick - Wayne Simmonds
Oskar Lindblom - Phil Varone - Dale Weise
Ivan Provorov - Shayne Gostisbehere
Robert Hagg - Andrew MacDonald
Travis Sanheim - Radko Gudas
Anthony Stolarz
Puck drop is just after 8:30 eastern and can be seen on SN and NBCSP.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
Recent posts:
Offense stagnant as winning streak comes to an end vs Oilers
On penalty killing prowess, Lindholm’s scoring, and goaltending
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
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