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G29 Calgary Flames vs Edmonton Oilers: Battle of Alberta v. 5 |
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Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
FIve things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Edmonton Oilers:
1. A stiff test. The Flames defended extremely well vs the Montreal Canadiens. I think the Canadiens are an easier team to defend against than Edmonton, though. They don’t have gamebreaking talent, and they generate a lot of their offense from in-zone play. With real commitment, you can take away the middle of the ice and really limit the danger. We saw that with Montreal generating just 10 Grade A chances in ~100 minutes of 5v5 play. This is going to be a much different game. Edmonton has several top-tier players, and they’re very capable of picking you apart off the rush. I’m interested to see how well the Flames can limit the damage, and manage things, when their defense isn’t as set. Back pressure from the forwards is going to be extremely important. If the guys aren’t as dialled in as in previous games, they’re going to pay.
2. Extra heat. The early editions of the Battle of Alberta were pretty tame this season. That really changed last time out, as it was a physical affair that featured two scraps and a lot of jawing between the two sides. Hard-nosed hockey is a staple of Sutter coached teams so I’d imagine we’ll see a lot of bite from the Flames again in this one. The key is not crossing the line. The Flames need all the points they can get and can’t afford to throw any away due to a lack of discipline.
3. Rolling four. Sutter has talked about the importance of using all four lines and he’s backed up his words with his usage. Josh Leivo has played 22:31 at 5v5 through two games, least among Flames forwards. Mikael Backlund is the only one with more than 26:35. So, essentially, the gap between the most used line and least utilized unit is only ~2 minutes per game; essentially a shift per period. I think that kind of deployment will help keep everyone fresh, which is important when energy and commitment are such key staples of the way Sutter wants his teams to play.
4. Due for a breakout. Two games is two games but the Matthew Tkachuk - Elias Lindholm - Dillon Dube line sure has flourished under Sutter. This trio controlled more than 70% of the Expected Goals in two games against Montreal. That’s no small feat considering Montreal is as good as anyone when it comes to winning the chance battle at dictating play at 5v5. I expect the Backlund line to see a lot of Connor McDavid, Leon Drasiaitl and company, which should allow this line to feast on more advantageous lineups.
5. Regression SZN. Mike Smith has played very well this season. He owns a 9-2 record and has posted a remarkably strong .927 SV% while ranking 3rd(!) in Goals Saved Above Expected. There’s only one problem; he’s Mike Smith. This is a 38-year-old netminder who finished with a .902 SV% last season and an .898 SV% the year prior. Those are below average numbers. I think it’s pretty unlikely Smith found a fountain of youth and magically turned into a high-end goaltender so I’d bet on his numbers dropping – significantly, at that – sooner than later. Perhaps that’ll start tonight.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and MoneyPuck.com
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