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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Montreal Canadiens:
1. Bad goaltending
A few years ago Carey Price vs Mike Smith would be considered a high-end goaltending matchup. Oh, how the times change. Price and Smith are off to less than desirable starts, to put it nicely.
Smith has posted a .900 save percentage or better in just four of 12 appearances thus far. On the year, he owns a .877SV% and ranks dead last having stopped -10.24 goals above average. Not great!
Price has been slightly better posting a .892SV% and stopping -5.79 goals above average. Also not great.
Don't be surprised if there are quite a few goals – including some soft ones – in this game.
2. 5v5 prowess
Calgary and Montreal both rank top-10 in Corsi For/60 and in Corsi Against/60. In other words, they're excellent at controlling play and dominating the shot clock. They play at a shockingly similar pace, too, with Calgary games averaging 116.68 5v5 attempts/60 and Montreal games averaging 116.54 5v5 attempts/60.
This game will likely come down to special teams – or goaltending – because I don't see much to separate them at 5v5.
3. The best line nobody knows about
When you think of elite lines in the NHL, the top trios in Boston, Colorado, Winnipeg and Tampa Bay, among a couple others, come to mind.
There's an under the radar line in this game that has been playing similarly well this season. I am, of course, talking about the Tomas Tatar - Phillip Danault - Brendan Gallagher unit. Not overly scary on paper, but their numbers certainly are.
At 5v5, they're controlling 66.4% of the shot attempts, 62.29% of the expected goals, and 57.8% of the actual goals. This is over 180 minutes so it's not like they've just put together a couple good games. It's a legitimate sample they've dominated.
Suffice to say, Mikael Backlund and Mark Giordano will have their hands full in this one.
4. Young Sam Bennett™
The Flames' leading chance generator over the last five games is...Sam Bennett! He hasn't scored, but we'll leave that minor detail aside. In an effort to reward his performance, and hopefully get him going offensively, Bennett has been moved up to the 2nd line with Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk. That duo has controlled 60% of the attempts and 55% of the chances together this season. While they draw a tough matchup tonight, playing with them is a really good opportunity. We'll see if he can take advantage of it.
5. Rasmus Andersson
Earlier in the season, Andersson was passing the eye test. The analytical test? Not as much. In short, more often than not the Flames were getting out-shot and out-chanced with him on the ice. That has changed of late.
Over the last four games, the Flames are rocking a 63.53 Corsi For% and 66.67 Scoring Chance For% with Andersson out there. The numbers are finally matching the eyes.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennet
Austin Czarnik - Mark Jankowski - James Neal
Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Michael Frolik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Montreal (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Tomas Tatar - Phillip Danault - Brendan Gallagher
Jonathan Drouin - Max Domi - Andrew Shaw
Kenny Agostino - Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Artturi Lehkonen
Nic Deslauriers - Matthew Peca - Charles Hudon
Jordie Benn - Jeff Petry
David Schlemko - Victor Mete
Noah Juulsen - Mike Reilly
Carey Price
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on TS2, SNW and RDS.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts:
On strong 5v5 numbers, Czarnik's role, and Hanifin's penalty killing
On penalty killing prowess, Lindholm’s scoring, and goaltending
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
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