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Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Pittsburgh Penguins:
1. High-event hockey
If you like offense, this is probably the game for you.
Though the Devils have struggled to score at times, it’s not for a lack of chances. They are really good at generating high-danger opportunities and rank 3rd to Carolina and San Jose in Expected Goals For/60. That’s bad news for a Penguins team that gives up a lot defensively. They rank 28th in Corsi Against/60 and 25th in Expected Goals Against/60.
On the flip side, New Jersey’s defense has really loosened up following a strong start to the year. The Devils have conceded 34 goals over the last seven games and now sit bottom-10 in both Corsi Against/60 and Expected Goals Against/60. The Penguins, obviously, have the high-end talent to take advantage of the opportunities that are presented to them.
We could be in for a high scoring game.
2. Pavel Zacha’s return
Zacha recorded five points during his four-game stint with Binghamton. His solid play, coupled with injuries to Nico Hischier and Brian Boyle, has resulted in a quick return to the big club.
Tonight he is expected to center Marcus Johansson and Jesper Bratt, which will be the best pair of linemates he’s had to work with all season. With Nico Hischier out, now would be a good time for Zacha’s unsustainably low on-ice shooting percentage (3.23%) to regress.
3. Attacking on the PK
While the Flyers have given up more short-handed goals than the Penguins, the latter ranks 31st in shorties against on a per 60 basis. They also rank near the bottom in terms of shot attempts against on the man advantage. It feels like Blake Coleman and the Devils generate a couple quality chances on the PK every night and I’d expect that to be the case again in this one.
4. Matching vs Malkin
Sidney Crosby is still ridiculously good but it’s Pittsburgh’s 2nd line I’d be worried most about. Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist have been lethal together, albeit over a small sample size. The Pens are generating 67 shot attempts/60, ~37 chances/60, and 19 high-danger looks/60 with that duo on the ice. If John Hynes uses Sami Vatanen and/or Travis Zajac to hard match, I’d put them on the Malkin unit.
5. Keith Kinkaid
Among 38 goaltenders to log at least 300 5v5 minutes this season, Keith Kinkaid ranks 28th in save percentage and has negative Goals Saved Above Average numbers. With the way New Jersey is defending right now and all the firepower Pittsburgh possesses, he should see a lot of rubber tonight. He'll need to take his game up a notch if the Devils are going to dig out of this hole.
Here are the projected lineups.
New Jersey Devils
Taylor Hall - Travis Zajac - Kyle Palmieri
Marcus Johansson - Pavel Zacha -Jesper Bratt
Blake Coleman - Brett Seney - Joey Anderson
Miles Wood - J.S. Dea - Stefan Noesen
Mirco Mueller - Sami Vatanen
Andy Greene - Damon Severson
Will Butcher - Ben Lovejoy
Keith Kinkaid
Pittsburgh (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Dominik Simon - Sidney Crosby - Bryan Rust
Carl Hagelin - Evgeni Malkin - Patric Hornqvist
Jake Guentzel - Riley Sheahan - Phil Kessel
Garrett Wilson - Matt Cullen - Zach Aston-Reese
Jack Johnson - Kris Letang
Brian Dumoulin - Chad Ruhwedel
Olli Maatta - Jamie Oleksiak
Casey DeSmith
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on MSG and ATTSN-PT.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
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