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Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Winnipeg Jets:
1. Top line vs top line
The Nik Ehlers - Mark Scheifele - Blake Wheeler line is scary on paper. All possess elite offensive skills and, generally, provide strong two-way play. That hasn’t been the case this season. We’re not dealing with a massive sample size (70 minutes) but they’ve been pretty leaky defensively giving up better than 33 chances and ~13 high-danger looks per 60 minutes. That’s more than they’ve generated at the other end.
New Jersey’s top offensive trio averages 33 chances and over 18(!) high-danger opportunities per 60. They’ve been extremely dangerous almost every game and I doubt that will change against Winnipeg’s top line with how much they’re giving up right now.
Note: New Jersey is expected to break up Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier, and Kyle Palmieri. I would expect Jesper Bratt, who worked well with the former two last year, to take Palmieri's spot.
2. New Jersey’s PK vs Winnipeg’s PP
Another game, another tough matchup for New Jersey’s penalty killing units. The Jets have enough firepower to rival anyone so it should be no surprise they’re lethal while up a man. On the year they’re averaging 124 shot attempts/60 (1st), 13.14 goals per 60 (1st), and 8.38 expected goals per 60 (5th).
It’s not a great spot for the Jets in that they’re going up against a PK that ranks top-10 in shot and expected goal suppression. It is a great spot in terms of volume, though, as only the Avalanche take penalties at a higher clip than the Devils.
3. When will the tide turn?
I continue to feel awful for Marcus Johansson. He is averaging more shots on goal and high-danger chances per 60 than ever at 5v5. In six games I’ve tracked he ranks 2nd to only Taylor Hall in shot contribution percentage. And yet the results just aren’t there. A big reason for that, beyond a revolving door of linemates mostly playing above their head on L2, is percentage driven. Johansson is scoring on 5.26% of his 5v5 looks. The last time he finished below 10%, and only time below 9%, was 2013-14. He also has a woeful on-ice shooting percentage of 3.45%, meaning goalies stop ~96.5% of the shots they face when Johansson is out there. That’s almost impossible to believe. Don’t get me wrong, there have been some quiet nights from Johansson. He still deserves much better returns than he’s gotten, though. A road date with Winnipeg is not the best Get Right spot, however, a breakout game is coming sooner than later. It has to.
4. Back on track
New Jersey’s power play has come up empty-handed in three of the last four games. I wouldn’t bet on that happening again tonight. Winnipeg’s aggressiveness lends itself to a decent share of penalties – since the beginning of last season they rank 23rd in penalties taken/60 – and their PK has struggled in the early going. They currently sit 24th in Corsi Against/60 and 28th in Expected Goals Against/60. They’re giving up a lot of volume right now and the Devils have the talent, at least on the top unit, to take advantage of it.
5. Patrik Laine
Laine has always been an overrated 5v5 player but his current struggles in that game state are shocking. Through 15 games he has one 5v5 point. One. And it was a secondary assist. He has struggled but, like Johansson, he’s also been hurt by luck. He does have the shot to strike from anywhere so the Devils will have to play him tight and hope regression holds off for at least one more game.
Here are the projected lineups.
New Jersey Devils
*expected they'll switch spots (not confirmed)
Taylor Hall - Nico Hischier - Jesper Bratt*
Marcus Johansson - Brett Seney - Kyle Palmieri*
Blake Coleman - Travis Zajac - Joey Anderson
Miles Wood - Brian Boyle - Stefan Noesen
Andy Greene - Damon Severson
Egor Yakovlev - Sami Vatanen
Will Butcher - Ben Lovejoy
Cory Schneider
Winnipeg (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Nik Ehlers - Mark Scheifele - Blake Wheeler
Kyle Connor - Bryan Little - Mathieu Perreault
Brandon Tanev - Adam Lowry - Patrik Laine
Nic Petan - Andrew Copp - Jack Roslovic
Josh Morrissey - Jacob Trouba
Ben Chiarot - Dustin Byfuglien
Joe Morrow - Tyler Myers
Connor Hellebuyck
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on MSG+, SN, and NHLN (U.S.)
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
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