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We've finally reached April, which means we're now in the home stretch of #TankingSZN.
While Ottawa – check that, Colorado – has last place clinched, there is a heated race between New Jersey and Los Angeles for 30th.
The Devils currently sit 29th with 68 points in 79 games, while the Kings are just behind (ahead?) of them with 67 points in 78 games. It's a dead heat.
New Jersey still plays New York (R), Carolina, and Florida. Los Angeles still plays Calgary, Arizona, Anaheim, and Vegas.
A quick glance at those schedules would probably lead you to believe the Devils won't drop any further. I'm not so sure that is the case.
The Flames clinched top spot in the West last night. They're not only playing in the latter half of a back-to-back tonight, but they're playing for nothing. Health and rest are more important than anything else and I think their lineup could reflect that. Arizona is still fighting for a playoff spot, however, Anaheim is a lost cause and Vegas is in a similar boat to Calgary.
I don't think it is at all out of the question LA squeezes out another two or three points, which would leave the Devils 30th if they lose out. That'd be big. How big?
The 30th placed team has a 38.8% chance of a top-3 pick and 72.13% of a top-4 pick. The 29th placed team has a 33.9% chance of a top-3 pick and a 47.1% chance of a top-4 pick. That could be the difference in drafting, say, Kaapo Kakko or Vasili Podkolzin as opposed to Dylan Cozens. The gap is sizeable,
especially for someone who isn't as high on Cozens (like me).
That's why it is imperative the Devils go full tank mode down the stretch. If they're not going to sit out top players, they should decrease their ice time at the very least. I don't want to see Nico Hischier and Kyle Palmieri logging 18-20 minutes up front. I don't want to see Damon Severson getting all the ice he can handle.
Give a lot of time to the kids (i.e. Michael McLeod, Joey Anderson) and replacement-level players (i.e. Kurtis Gabriel, Kevin Rooney) and let the chips fall where they may.
Losing doesn't guarantee the Devils will get a top, top, pick and end up with a borderline sure-fire star but it increases the chances. That's what these last few games should be about.
Nobody would remember a win over the Rangers with both teams playing for nothing. Everyone would remember a lottery win and, again, losing is the best path to making that happen.
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