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I continue to see a lot of talk about Jordan Eberle signing with the New Jersey Devils in free agency.
I have written a couple of posts –
most recently here – outlining why I think giving Eberle the lucrative contract he's likely to command is a bad idea but I'm going to touch on it again.
For one, Eberle is 29 years old. He is past his prime. Not exiting it. Past it. He could still have some respectable years, of course, but giving him big term/money immediately after he shows red flags at an age where decline should become noticeable seems like a bad idea.
To put his 2018-19 campaign into perspective, Eberle averaged 1.41 points per 60 at 5v5 despite spending ~90% of his ice with either Mathew Barzal or Brock Nelson.
You know who else averaged 1.41 points/60? Brett Seney. Miles Wood (1.56) and Kenny Agostino (1.69) were also among the nine Devils forwards to equal or best Eberle's 5v5 output.
Eberle shot 10.62% individually and his on-ice shooting percentage (7.81%) was higher than in two of three prior seasons so it's not like his ability to produce at 5v5 was hindered by awful luck. The same can be said of his all-situation numbers (11.88 SH%, 8.6 on-ice SH%).
It is worth noting his IPP (individual points percentage) was a little below the norm, however, boosting it to 69/70% to match the three years prior still only puts him at 45 points.
He doesn't draw many penalties, kill them, or play plus-defense so it's not like he is going to provide a ton of value in other ways. If the points aren't there, he's not that useful and, again, this is the stage in his career where points – and efficiency rate he accumulates them at – should dip.
Now, I'm not going to argue he could put up respectable numbers if he was playing opposite side Taylor Hall and was generally centered by a high-end playmaker like Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes. But so could a lot of players, and it'd cost a pretty penny to get Eberle's signature.
If the Devils are going to spend on a notable free agent in their late 20s, I'd prefer a more complete player – one who might not command just as much money/term – like Gustav Nyquist.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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