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2019 NHL Eastern Conference playoff predictions: Round 1

April 9, 2019, 11:15 AM ET [47 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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Here are my predictions for the Eastern Conference matchups in the opening round of the 2019 playoffs:

Series: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets

Prediction: Lightning in six.

This has the potential to be a sneaky-competitive series. Over the last 25 games, the Jackets' underlying numbers (50.71 CF%, 51.46 xGF%) are actually better than the Lightning's (50.78 CF%, 50.41 xGF%) at 5v5. Sergei Bobrovsky also seems to have found his game and when he's on, the Jackets can hang in with anybody. Tampa Bay does have *better* stars, and more depth, which is why I ultimately think they'll take care of business. But I won't be surprised if this turns into more of a fight than most seem to expect.

Series: Washington Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes

Prediction: Hurricanes in seven.

I commented on this series in yesterday's hotstove, so I'll defer to that:

Most of every game is spent at 5v5, especially in the playoffs when referees tend to let more go, and the Hurricanes look to have a fairly noticeable edge in that area.

Over the last 25 games, the Hurricanes have controlled 53.43% of the shot attempts and 52.65% of the scoring chances at 5v5.

The Capitals controlled 51.29% of the attempts and 48.86% of the chances during that same span. They generally out-perform their underlying numbers – elite talent helps do that – but that's still a sizeable difference.

I don't think the Hurricanes are going to breeze past the Capitals by any means – I expect it to go six or seven games regardless of the winner – but I do like them to pull off the upset. In a somewhat underwhelming Metro bracket, I could see the Hurricanes doing real damage.


Series: Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Prediction: Leafs in seven.

People are way over-exaggerating Toronto's demise. Despite playing much of their games down the stretch without two of their four best defensemen (Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott), the Leafs controlled 54.87% of the 5v5 chances over the last 25. That slots them 2nd only to the Flames and, obviously, ahead of the Bruins (7th).

While the Bruins are better on paper than a year ago, the Leafs are even more so. They added John Tavares and Jake Muzzin. Mitch Marner went from very good to elite. Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen have fully established themselves as quality top-6/top-9 wingers. Dermott's game has grown. And, with a little luck, Nazem Kadri won't miss three games this time around.

Don't get me wrong. Boston is excellent and they will be a very tough out. I just think the Leafs have what it takes – a more talented roster – to get the job done.

Series: New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins

Prediction: Penguins in five.

The Islanders are a great story. I honestly thought they'd be a bottom-feeder and they not only made the playoffs but earned home ice in the opening round. I'll eat my words and tip my hat to them. In saying that, I think their surprising run is going to end sooner than later.

Pittsburgh is a much better 5v5 team – at least they have been over the last few months. They also have a lethal power play and star power that very few teams can match up against. The Islanders certainly aren't one of them.

I just don't see how they win this series unless Thomas Greiss and Robin Lehner drastically out-perform Matt Murray, who owns a .934 save percentage over his last 17 appearances. Seems unlikely.

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