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Net Gains

June 23, 2021, 4:30 AM ET [262 Comments]
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Never draft a goalie with a 1st round pick.

That mantra seems to be a common one by fans who prefer 1st round selections be reserved for forwards and defensemen. Another common adage when drafting in at least the opening round is to take the best player available regardless of position.

On the latter, that still seems to apply only to skaters and not netminders. It was rumored, though, that the Blackhawks tried to trade up from 17th in the 2020 draft to have a greater chance of nabbing top goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov.

Coincidentally, Nashville selected Askarov at the 11th spot last year and Chicago is in the same spot this year. While not as highly regarded as Askarov, there are a pair of goalies projected to be 1st round talents: Jesper Wallstedt and Sebastian Cossa.

Wallstedt's modus operandi is that he plays calm between the pipes, is technically sound, stays square to shooters, and is economical in his movements. This may sound familiar as that's reminiscent of the game played by Hawks current starter Kevin Lankinen.

Although Wallstedt weighs more, Cossa is taller by 3 inches. Like former Hawks tender Robin Lehner, Cossa uses his size to take away prime areas for shooters. Unlike Lehner, however, Cossa is more agile to get around his crease with little wasted movements.

The scouting reports on both Wallstedt and Cossa look pretty similar to Drew Commesso who the Hawks used their 2nd round pick in 2020 on to get a highly rated goalie in the system. Commesso is known to let pucks hit him then suck in rebounds rather than scramble.

So why not take Wallstedt or Cossa in the 1st round? It's been pointed out that the final four teams left in the Stanley Cup Playoffs have starters who were all former 1st rounders: Marc-Andre Fleury, Carey Price, Semyon Varlamov, and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

It should be pointed out the Hawks won multiple championships with an undrafted European free agent (Antti Niemi) and a 2nd rounder (Corey Crawford) as the starters in 2010, 2013, and 2015. The last goalie Chicago took in the 1st round was Adam Munro in 2001. Yuck.

After the top 5 spots in the 1st round of the 2021 draft, the remainder of the opening round is more volatile as far as predicting who will get taken when in spots 6 through 32. Each team will also have their own rankings which could have vast variances, too.

While some draft boards have Wallstedt in the top 10 -- even as high as 5th -- others have him in the teens and sometimes in the 20s. As for Cossa, he's rarely rated ahead of Wallstedt. Many boards have Cossa in the 20s and others have him in the 2nd round.

For the Hawks, a recommended strategy is to use the 11th pick to draft a forward or defenseman then wait to use one of their two 2nd round picks to grab Cossa if he's still available or pick up a lottery ticket in Tristan Lennox or Benjamin Gaudreau.

Lennox and Gaudreau are considered longer-term projects compared to Wallstedt and Cossa which is to be expected if they're not anywhere close to being 1st round caliber. Sharing similar strengths, Lennox and Gaudreau both track pucks and control rebounds well.

The Hawks don't have a 3rd round pick but Lennox and Gaudreau could still be available once the 4th round rolls around. It wouldn't be a surprise for Chicago to draft a goalie next month. Waiting until after the 1st round to do so may be the preferred path.

A late round alternative is to take a chance on Arseni Sergeyev, Joseph Vrbetic, or Owen Bartoszkiewicz. Each of them is a pure athlete with raw talent to grow from who may be worth a look in the 6th or 7th round where the Hawks have a trio of picks.

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Expansion Draft

Alex Nylander was a popular choice by fans drawing up lists for who the Blackhawks should expose in the Kraken expansion draft. That option evaporated when it was made known that he will be considered a second-year NHL player due to being out all of 2021 with an injury.

With that in mind, here's another early look at a possible protection list for Chicago:

Forwards (7)

* Patrick Kane
* Jonathan Toews
* Alex DeBrincat
* Dylan Strome
* Brandon Hagel
* Adam Gaudette
* Henrik Borgstrom

Defensemen (3)

* Duncan Keith
* Connor Murphy
* Riley Stillman

Goalies (1)

* Kevin Lankinen

A few notes on the proposed protection list:

* Depending on whether his status is made known before the expansion draft, Toews could be rendered exempt similar to Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw due to their injury statuses.
* If Toews is exempt, then David Kampf or Vincent Hinostroza could be a candidate to protect instead or protect both of them then expose Gaudette.
* Why protect Strome? While he may be on the way out, at least get something in return for him rather than lose him for nothing.
* Even if Nikita Zadorov didn't desire a hefty raise to $5.85M AAV for 5 years, the re-signing of Stillman to a new 3-year deal shortly after being acquired from the Panthers is a pretty good indicator that the Hawks are invested in him.

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Rockford Updates

The IceHogs will announce another signing today. Unless used as misdirection, the teaser of goalie equipment images makes it fairly obvious that a goalie is being signed which fits nicely with the focus of the blog today as well as Monday's blog.

Matt Tomkins is heading to Sweden to play next season. Arvid Soderblom, Cale Morris and Tom Aubrun are already under contract so it's not them. Drew Commesso and Dominic Basse are staying in college. By process of elimination, that leaves Ivan Nalimov.

Adding a 4th goalie to the Rockford depth behind Soderblom, Morris, and Aubrun could get hairy as far as finding ice time for everyone. That doesn't count possibly needing to carry a 5th goalie like Collin Delia on a conditioning stint, especially if there's no taxi squad.

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See you on the boards!

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