The only remaining signing for the Edmonton Oilers is Darnell Nurse. According to CapFriendly the Oilers have just under 5 million dollars in cap space. Reports have come out that Nurse's agent, Anton Thun has stated that he and Nurse are not pursuing a long term deal with the Oilers at this time. Simply put, Thun and Nurse believe the player is worth more than 5 million per year long term.
But is that the case?
First off let's take care of a few misconceptions regarding Nurse.
Nurse is a puck moving defender. He is a rare breed of being a large man but incredibly mobile. Last season Nurse played more 5 on 5 minutes than any other Oilers defender. Below is a graph with some stats of note.
Nurse played over 300 more minutes at EV than the next defenseman. Nurse was on the ice for more GF than any other Oiler defenseman. For anyone who would like to accuse him of being poor defensively because he was on for the second most goals take a look at other players in the NHL. John Carlson was on for 59 goals, Dougie Hamilton was on for 57, Connor McDavid was on for 60. The more minutes you play the more goals you will be on for. If someone wants to point fingers, do so at a player like Russell who is "a shutdown defender" and allowed the most EV goals despite playing 300 minutes fewer than Nurse.
While Nurse has yet to crack even the 30 point mark there are some promising facts about his offense. Nurse has steadily increased his offense since entering the NHL with his 26 points last season being his highest. What is highly unusual is every single one of Nurse's points came at EV.
Nurse's 6 goals and 20 assists were all at EV. His 26 EV points put him 34th last season out of all defensemen. Some notable names he produced more than in this regard include Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Ristolainen, Jonas Brodin, and Brent Seabrook. In fact, looking at Nurse's short career so far; all of his goals have come at EV.
This isn't surprising considering how little Nurse plays on the powerplay. Last season he averaged just under 30 seconds a game. For the record, I would like to see Nurse as a regular on the 2nd unit next season.
Nurse stacks up to his peers well in this regard. I broke down all defensemen from the 15/16 season to the 17/18 season in terms of those age 20-23 in that time. In terms of even strength production Nurse ranks 11th with 14 goals, tied with Jacob Trouba and Olli Maata. Players just above Nurse include Ristolainen (15), AND Morgan Reily (16).
Nurse is a proven producer at the NHL level so what is the problem with him? Well there's a few. For starters his 6 goals last season all came from October-January. From January on Nurse fell off a cliff. Not coincidentally this was the same time that Nurse started taking top pairing minutes due to Klefbom's injury issues. Nurse has not shown yet the ability to play against the tougher competition.
It's true for most players on the Oilers roster but it is very noticable that Nurse is most effective when he is on the ice with McDavid. His possession and GF% get kicked in the teeth when he is not sharing the ice with #97. All of these things together suggest a player that struggles when the opposition turn their attention to him.
Darnell Nurse may not ever grow into a top pairing player but he certainly is growing as a player. He has played just an eyelash under 200 games in the NHL and is showing he can hold is own as a second pairing player. Nurse is without question part of the Oilers defensive core moving forward.
As far as the contract goes a bridge deal seems like the obvious conclusion. Based on similar players I would assume we see a 2 year deal. There are a few comparable players that might give us a hint as what to expect.
Codi Ceci Age 22: 205GP 56 Points - 2x2.8 million
Jacob Trouba Age 22: 207GP 70 Points - 2x3million
Matt Dumba Age 22: 152GP 44 Points - 2x2.55 million
If the Oilers are able to keep Nurse in the 2.8-3.2 million dollar range on a two year deal they will still have a small amount of cap left.... which can either be used at the deadline or as a cushion for players with bonuses such as Puljujarvi. Once again Nurse will need to show next season that he is still improving and hopefully the best is yet to come
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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