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The Oilers 2019/2020 Season Eulogy |
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Time of death, August 7th, 8:00PM.
I debated on doing a post game breakdown of last night's game but forgive me if I saw little point. The Edmonton Oilers once again were outworked by their opponent and while the team showed life in the third period it was far too late. As quickly as it began the Edmonton Oilers were eliminated from the post-season and their 2019/2020 season has come to a close. Fans are in shock and bouncing between anger and disappointment from minute to minute. One question is on every player and every fan's mind.
"How the hell did that just happen?"
Here is my eulogy. This is going to be a long one so grab your second coffee of the day, add that splash of Baileys and let's get to it.
Back in July I predicted that the Edmonton Oilers would finish 5th in the Pacific Division (I also predicted San Jose would finish 2nd). The reasoning was simple; the team had changed very little from the one that had finished 7th in the Division the year prior. The bottom six was shuffled about and I expected some of the new players to contribute more than their counterparts but overall I did not see this as a competitive playoff team.
Goaltending was another issue. The Oilers had moved on from Cam Talbot and brought in Mike Smith as a 1B to Koskinen. There were 34 goalies during the 2018/2019 season who played at least 40 games; Koskinen finished 26th in SV% at 5 on 5 with a 0.916 while Smith was 31st with a 0.906.
Lastly there didn't seem to be any impactful help coming from the farm. Caleb Jones was looking like he could come in to be a solid third pairing player and some, including myself thought Tyler Benson might get a shot in the top 9 but that was it. Names like Ethan Bear or Kailer Yamamoto weren't on anyone's lips as possible additions.
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Then along came October.
Edmonton steamrolled into the regular season with a 5-0 start, the first time the organization had done so since the 1985/1986 season. In each of the first five games, the Oilers had also managed to win coming from behind, a decent metaphor for the Oilers season as a whole but we will come back to that later.
Ironically the first game the Oilers lost was a 3-1 tilt versus the Chicago Blackhawks. That game was the Hawks first win of the season. At the time that put the Hawks with a 14-5-2 record against the Oilers in their past 21 games.
From the beginning of October to the end of November, the Oilers had the 5th best record in the league, a positive goal differential... if you were looking at all situations. At 5 on 5 the Oilers were 19th with a GF/60 of 3.17 and a GA/60 of 2.73. This was a team being carried by their powerplay and penalty kill.
Edmonton was also being carried by some solid goaltending. Through the first two months of the season, Koskinen had the 13th best SV% at 5 on 5 at 0.925% of all goalies that played at least 600 minutes at 5 on 5 (Mikko had 701). Through 13 starts he was credited with 9 wins and only 2 losses.
Mike Smith meanwhile had 15 starts, was creditted with 7 wins, 7 losses and of the 34 goalies who played at least 600 minutes at 5 on 5, Smith was 30th with a 0.902SV%. From these first two months, somehow the narrative was shaped that the team plays better in front of Smith than Koskinen.
Overall the team was looking strong and playoffs was starting to be mentioned as a possibility for this organization.
Then December happened.
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Edmonton would notch the second most losses and second fewest points through the month. December was the month that showed how bad this team could be if the top guys weren't playing at their best; and it was ugly. With 18 goals for and 38 against at 5 on 5, the Oilers had the worst GF% of any team through that month. Of the 32 forwards who played at least 200 minutes at 5 on 5 through December, McDavid was 22nd in goals with 2 and Draisaitl was 30th with only 1. The big names were logging the heavy minutes and not getting anything done and the rest of the roster wasn't helping much either.
Kailer Yamamoto was called up and played alongside Leon Draisaitl against the Rangers on December 31st. That marked the beginning of a change in the Oilers fortunes. From the end of December to the middle of March when the season was suspended, the Oilers bounced back to being the 6th best team in the league with a record of 17-8-5 over that time. 5 on 5 production also improved as the Oilers had a 9th best GF/60 of 2.79 though their GA/60 was still poor at 2.63, good for 20th in the league.
Koskinen would remain consistently good from the end of December to the shutdown, of all goalies who played at least 500 minutes at 5 on 5, Koskinen had the 12th best SV% at 0.928%. Once again Smith was near the bottom of this list with a 0.908SV%, finishing 40th of 45th.
The Edmonton Oilers would finish 5th in the West and 2nd in the Pacific Division. For a team that most pegged to once again miss the post-season, it was a phenomenal year for the team. Draisaitl would win the Art Ross and may still win both the Ted Lindsay and Hart Trophy. The top two scoring players in the NHL are both Edmonton Oilers and will be for years to come.
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Then came the Qualifying Round.
Edmonton was outworked and outplayed by the Hawks and the better team won; I will not dispute that for a second. I want to stress that first part so it does not come off as petty or bitter when I say I find a hard time putting too much stock into certain aspects of this series.
The Oilers, Penguins, and Predators were all superior teams to their opponents, with each being eliminated. If not for an unbelievable late collapse by the Blue Jackets, the Leafs would have been added to this list. Upsets happen all the time but the sheer number here goes to show how odd this situation was. None of these teams should be thinking of blowing up their rosters due to a best of 5 series after a 4 month break.
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Where does all of this leave the Edmonton Oilers? What needs to be addressed and what should be left as it is?
The one clear answer here is that the forward group needs to be improved. Despite being one of the best lines in hockey from January to the end of the season, Tippett never went back to the RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto line in the playoffs. His reasoning was that he didn't want the Oilers to be a one line team; this was a rare major gaff by Tippett but it goes to show how weak the Oilers remain up front. At least one more true top 6 forward must be added this summer (fall) by Ken Holland.
This next statement is something I have a feeling I am going to have to repeat about a thousand times; "there is no way the team can count on their PP being that good again." Will it be good? Certainly. However the PP this past season was historically good and it is almost unheard of for something to be historically good twice in a row. The PP helped to cover up the mediocre to average 5 on 5 numbers but depth scoring still must be a focus.
There are exciting pieces in the works on the backend with the likes of Broberg and Bouchard being near NHL ready. It would be a gamble but Holland could trade someone like a Klefbom, Nurse, or Larsson if he felt one of these other players could take their spot. Would you trade Oscar Klefbom for William Nylander with Broberg taking his place? These will be the kinds of conversations we can have moving forward.
Lastly the goaltending was a massive letdown for the Oilers during the post-season and I am already seeing social media blowing up with ideas on how the Oilers should spend 7+ million on the likes of Robin Lehner.
History has shown that overpaying hot goalies rarely works out as you would expect (hello there Bobrovsky). Fiscally it makes much more sense to sign a guy similar what the Hurricanes did with getting James Reimer to backup Mrazek. Keep Koskinen and run as fast as possible away from Mike Smith.
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It was a season of highs and lows for the Oilers and obviously this ending was likely the option that hurt the most for Oilers fans.
I would like to end this blog by saying thank you to all the readers who read my blogs, sparked great conversations on the boards, and continue to share your passion for this team. It wasn't the ending any of us hoped for, but I am glad to have been on the ride with each and every one of you.
As always, thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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