Reasonable Expectations: Kyle Turris
Happy weekend everyone and what a wonderful Saturday it is!
Over the next couple months I'll be posting some in depth looks at various Oilers players, digging into their numbers from the prior year and trying to guess what they will do this season.
Today we will start with one of the adds that Ken Holland made early in Free Agency, Kyle Turris. Here are some notable numbers from last season and where that ranked on his team.
KYLE TURRIS 19/20 Stats
Games Played: 62
Goals: 9 (12th)
Assists: 22 (6th)
EV TOI: 15th
EV Goals: 7 (12th)
EV Assists: 14 (9th)
PPG: 2 (9th)
PPA: 8 (2nd)
Shots: 88 (14th)
SH%: 10.2% (9th)
The last two seasons haven't been overly kind to Turris in Nashville as he has seen his ice time steadily decline. His even strength numbers certainly look like those of a bottom six player. On the plus he appears to be producing exactly where he should based on his average ice-time. He is not producing massive amounts but he is not below either.
A few seasons ago, Turris was a consistent 50+ point producer, but aside from his first season in Nashville (42 points) he hasn't come close to those numbers... what gives?
Linemates and TOI.
Through the 14/15 season, where Turris posted a career high 64 points, his most common linemates where Mark Stone (26-38-64) and Clarke MacArthur (16-2-36). The trio played just over 339 minutes together, posting a 60% goal share (18-12) and a CF% of 52.1. They were a highly effective line.
Compare that to who Turris spent time with this past season in Nashville. Here are the two lines Turris spent the most time with and how much time they spent together.
Granlund-Turris-Duchene - 68.7 Minutes - 33.3 GF% - 2GF - 4 GA
Blackwell - Turris - Smith - 62.8 Minutes - 66.7 GF% - 6GF - 3GA
During the 17/18 season where Turris posted 42 points in Nashvile?
Fiala-Turris-Smith - 545.7 Minutes - 71.1 GF% - 32GF - 13GA
Turris has been most successful when playing with higher calibre players and like most players, produces better with consistency. There has been some massive line shuffles in Nashville over the past couple seasons with very little consistency in the forward group.
With all that in mind, what can we expect from Turris in Edmonton? Short of massive injuries, I think it's fair to say there will at least be a much more defined role for the right shot centre with the Oilers along with more consistency in his linemates.
On the left side, Turris will likely spend most of the year with either Tyler Ennis or Domink Kahun on his left side. Both are have shown to be strong contributors at 5 on 5 play and solid complimentary players.
On the right side Jesse Puljujarvi will likely begin the season in that position. Turris has always received a higher dose of offensive zone starts than defensive which should help to shelter the young Finn early on.
Finally, what can we expect for points from Turris this next season?
Editors Note: For all of these predictions I am basing my numbers off of a full 82 game season. I think it's highly unlikely next season will be that number but until told otherwise that will be my basis.
One area I think we will see a drop off for Turris will be in his PP production. While Turris ranked 2nd on his team in PP assists last season, there simply is not room for him anywhere on the top unit in Edmonton. Turris will almost certainly centre the 2nd unit PP but over the past couple seasons that unit has received dramatically less time than the top unit.
I do believe the system Tippett has in place will allow Turris to thrive more than he ever was able to in Nashville. One of the most notable drop offs for Turris these past couple years have been his actual shots on net. Basic math shows that if Turris can get back to hitting the net 120-140 times a year, his overall production should improve.
KYLE TURRIS PREDICTION: 82GP 17-26-43
Even Strength Goals: 15
Powerplay Goals: 2
Even Strength Assists: 22
Powerplay Assists: 4
Thanks for reading!