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(Probably) My Last Puljujarvi Blog

July 1, 2022, 3:09 PM ET [22 Comments]
Sean Maloughney
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Over the past 48 hours, it's becoming increasingly likely that the Edmonton Oilers are preparing to trade Jesse Puljujaravi. The return? Likely far less than the player is worth. The Oilers media machine has been churning out posts, talking about how his teammates think he is a "playkiller," how he doesn't fit in, how multiple coaches have tried to "fix" him. All of the kinds of things you would expect the media to try and float out to soften what is ultimately going to be a disappointing return.

Anyone who has read my blogs should know I am a huge fan of the player. Drafted 4th overall by the Edmonton Oilers, JP was hoped to be the long term winger for Connor McDavid. The big Finn with a booming one timer who would easily put up 30+ goals a season next to the best player on the planet.

Instead what we got was something arguably more important. A great defensive player who is highly efficient on the forecheck and excels at preventing the opposition from entering the zone cleanly with the puck; not with booming hits or aggressive attacks, but correct body placement and awareness. Therein lies the issue. The great things that Puljujarvi does are not going to show up on any highlight reels or get promoted by the old boys club who value face punching and hits more than smart hockey plays.

For likely the last time. here are some important numbers with Puljujarvi. Everything I am going to talk about in this blog are actual numbers, no Expected Goals For or Against but the concrete real numbers that maybe even the biggest analytics deniers can understand.

From the beginning of the season to February 17th, Jesse Puljujarvi had scored 12 goals and put up 16 assists on 117 shots (10.26SH%) in 766 minutes of play. He ranked 4th on the team in total goals behind Draisaitl (35), McDavid(25), and Hyman(16), and ahead of Yamamoto(9). We are going to be directly comparing Yamamoto and Puljujarvi as both are RFA's and the debate on which is more important to the team. Yamamoto meanwhile in that same period of time played 786 minutes, 20 minutes more and had 9 goals and 9 assists on only 63 shots (14.29SH%).

Now looking at 5 on 5 numbers, Puljujarvi actually played fewer minutes than Yamamoto. In 650 minutes, JP had 7 goals and 10 assists on 91 shots ((7.69SH%). KY in 694 minutes had 8 goals and 7 assists on 56 shots (14.29SH%). Puljujarvi has always been more of a volume shooter than Yamamoto but even here we are seeing him scoring below his career average SH% of 9.1. Yamamoto meanwhile has never been a volume shooter and tends to be far more selective when he shoots. Yamamoto's SH% the last three seasons have been 25%, 11.6%, and 17.5%.

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Now, I've brought up the time period of the beginning of the season to Feb 17th for a reason. Puljujarvi's season can be split into three different groups; the beginning of the season and the first 28 games, the next couple months after recovering from COVID, and the remainder of the season after being out for a month with a lower body injury, believed to be a hip injury.

In the first 28 games of the season, Puljujarvi put up 23 points in 28 games (10-13-23) and was fourth on the team in scoring, putting up 75 shots in 480 minutes, this is at all strengths. At the same time, Yamamoto was 5-1-6 in 28 games. How quickly people forget that Yamamoto struggled heavily early on. Despite playing the 6th most ice-time among forwards (434) Yamamoto had only 28 shots on goal, ranking 7th among forwards. Warren Foegele who played 80 fewer minutes at the time than Yamamoto, had put up nearly double the number of shots at 43.

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After returning from COVID, in which Puljujarvi did have symptoms, we see the struggles begin. Puljujarvi played 286 minutes going 2-3-5 in his next 18 games. Despite having the fourth most shots among forwards in that time (42) behind McDavid, Draisaitl, and funny enough, Warren Foegele, JP had only 2 goals; a SH% of 4.76%. Here is where the issues began. The shot generation remained the same but the puck just wasn't going in.

Yamamoto during this time period played 352 minutes, going 4-8-12 in scoring on 35 shots (11.43SH%). His shots were 7th among forwards despite playing the third most minutes among forwards.

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Then we move onto the final part of the season. On February 18th, JP went down with a lower body injury and would miss a month. It's in this time that we would see Yamamoto rise and JP fall.

Yamamoto played in 33 games over the final part of the season. He would play 580 minutes going 11-12-23 in the final 33 games. He scored those 11 goals on 51 shots a 21.57SH%, his highest of the season.

Puljujarvi would suit up for the final 19 games, playing 288 minutes and going 2-6-8 in those 19 games. He was still shooting a fair amount and despite missing 15 games he still had 43 shots on net, just 8 less than Yamamoto who did not miss any time.

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So by the offensive numbers we have a player in Puljujarvi who finished the season 14-22-36 despite missing two weeks to COVID and a month with a hip injury. His even strength production (25 points) had him tied with players like Logan Couture, Joel Eriksson Ek, Alex Iafallo, Tim Stutzle, and Dylan Cozens despite playing in 14 fewer games. Even with the later season struggles, if Puljujarvi had played a full season, even the biggest JP hater would have to agree he would have had at least four more points. I know Oilers fans are gifted with Draisaitl and McDavid putting up three digit seasons but 40 point players are top six wingers in this league.

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Then we have the defensive numbers. Jesse Puljujarvi is elite defensively. Of all of the NHL players who played at least 920 minutes at 5 on 5, Puljujarvi ranks 3rd. Yes, third in the entire league.

Corey Perry played 932 minutes at 5 on 5. When he was on the ice, the team scored 37 goals and allowed 25. Next is Yakov Trenin with the Predators. in 1001 minutes his team scored 33 goals when he was on the ice and allowed only 27.

Then you have Puljujarvi. In 928 minutes his team scored 51 goals when he was on the ice and allowed only 28.

This is far more than just "the McDavid effect" too. Puljujarvi with McDavid played 604 minutes together, in that time they went 34-15 in 5 on 5 goals for/against. McDavid without Puljujarvi? McDavid played 723 minutes without Puljujarvi and went 39-25 in that time.

Go down the list with other centers. RNH and JP didn't play much together but in their 69 minutes together they went 7-4, again outscoring their opposition. RNH without Puljujarvi? 750 minutes going 31-30.

Draisaitl? 337 minutes with Puljujarvi 24-15. Draisaitl without Puljujarvi; 947 minutes 43-42. In each case the overall production is lower and the number of goals against per minutes played drastically increases.

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Lastly, here are the same numbers with and without Yamamoto.

Yamamoto with McDavid: 346 minutes - 22-19
McDavid without Yamamoto: 981 - 51-31

Yamamoto with Draisaitl: 600 minutes - 27-25
Draisaitl without Yamamoto: 684 minutes - 40-32

Yamamoto with RNH: 400 minutes 15-17
RNH without Yamamoto: 418 minutes 23-17

The final number:
Yamamoto without McDavid or Draisaitl: 250 minutes - 6-15
Puljujarvi without McDavid or Draisaltl: 145 minutes - 5-5

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Once again it appears that the Oilers are going to focus only on what happened at the end of a season and trade low on a player that clearly helps the team and can be placed in a number of different spots. Jesse Puljujarvi is a smart player who helps his team keep control of the puck while preventing the opposition from ever getting anything going themselves. I see no reason why the player after fully recovering from his injuries and returning to camp with his confidence intact once more cannot return to the 23 point in 28 game pace that he begun with.

This blog is going to make it seem like I hate Kailer Yamamoto; I don't. He is a unique player as well and despite his small stature he is tough to play against in his own right. However if the decision comes down to who I believe could help this team more in the long term, the easy answer is Jesse Puljujarvi. Yamamoto is a streaky producer who has relied on some unsustainable shooting percentages. He could just as easily dry up his scoring as he could go on a tear. It's what JP does away from the puck even when he isn't scoring that makes him more valuable.

Sadly all of this is moot and this blog likely isn't going to reach the ears of management or cause them to falter on their decision making even if it did. JP is going to get traded, probably for something wildly underwhelming and the Oilers brass will be scratching their heads in a couple years when he is playing top six minutes for another team, while the Oilers are overpaying in free agency to try and fill the void.

If this is the end you will be missed in Oil Country Puljujarvi. You did not get the praise you ever deserved here but hopefully your next team and fanbase will.

Thanks for reading.
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