The Edmonton Oilers and Darnell Nurse have come to an agreement on an 8 year deal worth 9.25 million dollars per season. That's a big chunk of change. How did we get here?

Nurse posted a monster season for the Edmonton Oilers in 20/21. No player logged more minutes at 5 on 5 last season than Darnell Nurse. The 26 year old left shot defender also posted his best offensive numbers of his career with 16 goals in 56 games, 15 of which were at 5 on 5. Only Jakob Chychurn scored as many goals from the blueline. Nurse in the past has struggled with the more egregious mistakes in front of the Oilers crease and while at times he still played to loose in his own end he cleaned up a number of those mistakes. While in the past Nurse has shown in bursts his ability to be a true #1 defenceman, he was able to do such at a consistent pace all season.

But 9.25 million a season... ooooofff. Thank you Columbus, Dallas, and Chicago for helping to create this mess. Heiskanen got paid 8.45 million, followed by Werenski getting a 9.5 million dollar deal and Seth Jones getting 9.5 million as well. Throw in Dougie Hamilton getting a free agency payday to the tune of 9 million dollars and the market for #1 D men has been set. The Oilers had two different opportunities to sign Nurse to a longer term deal. In 2018 the team signed Nurse to a bridge deal of 3.2 million for 2 years and then again in 2020 when they bridged him to a two year deal worth 5.6 million a year. That contract ends at the end of next season. This was a case of waiting too long and the market set the pay day for the player.

Edmonton had two options here, wait to see what Nurse did this season and then try and sign him at the end of the season but we just saw what happened there with Adam Larsson who decided not to sign and then walk to Seattle.

The other option would have been to trade him now before offering a new deal. Clearly there is a premium on defencemen right now and after the season he had, Nurse's value has never been higher. The issue is the Oilers still need to have someone playing in those minutes. If you trade Nurse who are you getting back that can do that?

At the end of the day, Darnell Nurse has been locked up and may very well finish his career as an Edmonton Oiler. The team is better with Nurse on it than without but for this contract to be somewhat palatable Nurse needs to continue to improve his play and there are going to be some issues there.

The first is the fact that Nurse will likely never reach this goal marker again. Nurse prior to this past season had a career SH% of just over 3% and in 20/21 he shot 10.4%. His overall volume of shots taken didn't dramatically increase so instead it's much more likely Nurse might hit 10 goals in an 82 game schedule.

The more concerning issue remains the McDavid boost. When Nurse plays with McDavid the duo post a 55.30CF% and an xGF% of 56.30%. When Nurse is not with McDavid that drops dramatically; a 44.65CF% and an xGF% of 43.73%. If you have Nurse on the ice without McDavid or Draisaitl, he posts a 42.17CF% and an xGF% of 39.13%. Put another way, Kris Russell without McDavid or Draisaitl posted a 44.30CF% and an xGF% of 43.04% away from McDavid and Draisaitl.

One reason to be optimistic though is how bad the Oilers bottom six has been over the past few years. The likes of Jujhar Khaira, Riley Sheahan, Gaetan Haas and others have brought absolutely nothing of real offensive output to the lower parts of the lineup. Darnell Nurse may have bad numbers away from McDavid but so has every other defenseman the Oilers have iced over the past 5 years. At some point it needs to be pointed out it might not be all on the blueline but instead the fact that they have had to take minutes with guys who wouldn't be 13th forwards on some competitive teams.

With Ryan and Foegele added to the bottom six, plus the likes of Hyman helping to shore things up in the top six the Oilers have a far more well rounded forward core which should in turn provide some assistance to the bluleline; most notably Darnell Nurse.

The contract is about 1.5 million more than I had hoped it would be but Nurse is a true #1 who is entering his prime. He needs to continue to grow however because with some of the other question marks on the blueline the team cannot afford for him to plateau.

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