Nashville is the best team Tampa Bay has played this season. Last night’s 3-2 loss was dispiriting, but informative. The Predators play at such a quick pace, and their team defense is so proficient, that it forced the Lightning to make a bunch of fascinating matchup tweaks to adjust. These are the type of matchups the Lightning need to problem-solve before the postseason. It was thrilling to watch the two heavyweights go toe-to-toe, and the good news for Tampa Bay is that last night’s second meeting with Nashville did reveal a blueprint for how the Lightning can succeed against a possible Stanley Cup final opponent in June.
The biggest matchup adjustment was moving Brayden Point to play with Nikita Kucherov. Frankly, the Predators were too fast for Steven Stamkos, and he no longer can execute at a speed where his offensive aptitude is sufficient to steward a line with Kucherov against an excellent defensive team. When Kucherov was with Stamkos and J. T. Miller, Kucherov was the only one who could consistently lead entries, and Nashville was able to stymie a predictable attack.
On the Kucherov goal, Point and Kucherov waxed Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis, the Predators’ best defensive pairing, in open ice. Point split the Predators’ forwards before he crossed the far blue line, and feeding Point and letting him create was a play Tampa Bay would run successfully many times before the game concluded. Was Point boosted by an obvious interference call that was missed on the near blue line? Absolutely. Craig Smith was demolished away from the puck, and that eliminated the first Predators forward. (Play starts at 6:26 in video below.)
What was even more important was the sagging gap by Josi because he is petrified of Point’s speed. Or that Kucherov beat Ellis off the puck to the inside. Yes, Kucherov is a shooter and a playmaker—but he can also cut, and he rarely gets to on his current line. The Predators can muffle the Lightning’s offense and challenge its forward depth, but Point and Kucherov paired together trump Nashville’s best defensive efforts.
To be fair, Stamkos’s difficulties accounting for the Predators’ speed and aggression was not specific to him. The Lightning forwards struggled to carry the puck in and complete stretch passes all game as the Predators stepped up between the blue lines and forced the Lightning to dump the puck in, or stripped the puck-handler of possession, initiating the Predators’ dangerous counterattack.
Unfortunately, the dump-and-chase proved to be an unsatisfying option, as the Lightning forecheck was completely neutralized due to goaltender Pekka Rinne’s skill at playing the puck and the indomitable breakout by the Predators. Even if the Lightning were able to claim possession on the retrieval, the Predators defended the cycle incredibly well. The Lightning puck-carrier struggled to gain separation, interchanges were easily handled, and the passing options proved fruitless. Time and time again, a Predators defender would beat the Lightning forward to the puck when it was moved deep. The Predators dominated the Lightning along the boards.
The Lightning need more than Point and Kucherov to create offense. One way the Lightning destabilized was to strike before the Predators could assume a defensive posture. The Lightning ran a creative set play with 6:38 left in the third period where Victor Hedman hammered the puck down to the Predators’ goal line in what would have been an icing, but it was an area pass intended to carom into an opportunity for Miller, who nearly whacked the puck past Rinne when the puck appeared in his lap. (Miller sequence starts at 7:11 in video above.)
The Predators like to have their best playmakers on defense spread out. Another gimmick the Lightning may want to consider, although sparingly, is having a forward fly the zone when the Predators have three forwards deep and the Nashville defensemen (in this case it was Josi and Ellis) are split wide. Point didn’t fly the zone on his breakaway in the beginning of the second period, but he is also absurdly fast and didn’t need to. The other eleven forwards would need to bolt as soon as they see the Lightning defenseman in position to block the shot and the Predators defensemen are spread out on the perimeter. Last night, McDonagh blocked the shot and Point shot up the middle for a nice look on Rinne.
Even if it does not produce a goal, it is a way to keep the Predators accountable in their own zone. If that threat is there, Nashville’s defensemen are going to be weary of conceding the middle of the ice, and a forward may be forced to stay higher, taking some of the bite out of their forecheck.
Against mediocre teams, the Lightning can be imperfect in passing and forfeit scoring chances because they make the extra pass. Not the case against Nashville.
If the Lightning and Predators meet again in the playoffs, the Lightning need to shoot when they carry the puck into the slot or off-slot. Tyler Johnson passed up two opportunities in the first period to shoot from below the circles, and that cannot happen again. (The first was seconds into the game and drew the penalty on the Yanni Gourde takedown; the second was an attempted east-west pass to Slater Koekkoek.) Anthony Cirelli had an opportunity in the beginning of the second period when Nashville was caught on the long change. But instead of shooting, Cirelli tried to slip it to Alex Killorn on the backdoor. The perfectionist mindset won’t fly when the stakes are higher.
The Predators are awesome at disrupting passes of all varieties, and any hesitation to shoot will see scoring chances evaporate because they are adept at getting in shooting lanes as well. The Lightning struggled to complete anything except short passes in all three zones, but the way to ensure the short passes are there is by attacking with numbers. The Lightning did recognize this was their only hope of gaining offensive traction, which is why, on breakouts, they were so intransigent about direct passing out of the zone.
The Lightning certainly had success attacking in transition, but not every attempt needs to be achieved with a surplus of speed. Sometimes it was numbers that made the difference. With less than six minutes left in the third period, defenseman Dan Hamhuis surrendered space to Point on the entry partly because it was a 3-on-3, and when Hamhuis tried to challenge Point it resulted in the young center stepping out toward the outside and ripping a shot off the far post. One of the reasons Point had that luxury of time and space is because he was flanked by Kucherov and Johnson. The Lightning entered the zone with three forwards. And the puck almost bounced in after the initial shot attempt due to Braydon Coburn’s charge as the trailer. (See Point shot at 7:18 in video.)
Because Rinne is so good, the Lightning can fall into the trap of thinking they have to set up a precision play to beat him. But that is false. Hedman scored from the fringes of the off-slot for the Lightning’s first goal. In their last meeting, Koekkoek buried a shot from above the left dot. Rinne is an elite goaltender, but the Lightning need to challenge him, and maybe it is the second or third shot attempt that ultimately beats him.
The Lightning won’t see the Predators again for the rest of the season. But if they face them in the Cup final, and they defend and attack with puck support and stop vacillating in scoring areas, they will defeat them.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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