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Don't Knock It Till You've Tried It

January 27, 2019, 5:37 PM ET [18 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
If I were Jon Cooper, I would spend the next 33 games tweaking lineups in order to identify as many successful lines and pairings as possible. With the Lightning’s massive lead in the division, they have the creative freedom to game out how they might best respond when opponents force them into uncomfortable situations.

If the rush gets taken away and they are forced to dump-and-chase at the blue line, what are the best lines? What different looks can be thrown at opponents to unsettle them, or make Tampa Bay less predictable? By trying new marriages, I think the Lightning will have a better understanding of what works and what doesn’t when games start to matter again. Here are three combos Tampa Bay should try.

Brayden Point-Steven Stamkos
Point has played 377 minutes with Kucherov this season at 5v5, but without Stamkos as the third forward. Stamkos has played 211 minutes with Kucherov and without Point. But Point and Stamkos have only played 68 minutes together without Kucherov. This is odd because, in that small sample size, they have +17 Corsi Plus-Minus and have generated 34 Scoring Chances while only surrendering 17. When they have been together, they have torched their opponents.

Point and Stamkos are interesting as a pairing because they have had opposite trajectories this season. In the first 25 games, Point was an unstoppable playmaking force, shredding defenses and transporting the puck anywhere he wanted on the ice. He registered 61 Scoring Chances at 5v5 in that 25-game span. Over the next 24 games, he collected 39. Stamkos, in contrast, posted 45 Scoring Chances in the first 25 games. Over the next 24 games, he posted 51. Over the last twelve months, it is hard to remember Stamkos looking better than he does right now. He is puck-handling, playmaking, and shooting at an elite level.

If these two played together for a half dozen or so games, it would be fascinating to see the upshot. Would Point be as deferential as he has been to Kucherov? Would he reclaim his early puck-handling prowess? Would Stamkos, who has been an assassin in transition, be able to feed Point better than Kucherov has when Point is cutting to the net? Would they be unstoppable on the cycle and forecheck? It is certainly worth trying because right now I am not so sure that Kucherov needs either of them. Kucherov is playing so well he could thrive with men’s league players from a local hockey rink.

A seven-game playoff series is a grind and matchups are crucial. The Lightning rely on their top-six forwards, especially Point, Kucherov, and Stamkos, to produce. Having more combinations can only be helpful, and with the stakes low right now, why not? The early data suggests Point-Stamkos could be a dynamic combination.

Victor Hedman-Mikhail Sergachev
The small sample size for this duo is not nearly as propitious as for Point-Stamkos. But Hedman and Sergachev are the Lightning’s best playmakers on defense full stop, and at some point during the playoffs the Lightning are going to find themselves trailing by a goal late in a game. Therefore, this defensive pairing needs more than 67 minutes together at even strength.

The Lightning can’t have all five skaters attacking at once, so more time for these two with the Lightning’s down-by-a-goal forward lineup is paramount. Establish familiarity and determine what is the best way for these defensemen to drive offense on the rush and cycle without surrendering too much. Both defensemen can create room for themselves and attack off the puck, and with the right forwards, they would be nearly unstoppable. The potential that this gives the Lightning is immense.

Nikita Kucherov-Yanni Gourde
For whatever reason, these two almost never play together. Last season, Kucherov and Gourde played 33 minutes together. (The possession numbers were outrageously bad so maybe that small sample size spooked Cooper.) But in 2018-19, in slightly less than 17 minutes of ice time, Kucherov and Gourde have a +9 Corsi Plus-Minus and have manufactured three more Scoring Chances than they have allowed. Not white-hot numbers, but considering Gourde just got a healthy extension and has been in the top five among forwards in points for the last two seasons, it seems logical that he should get a chance to play with the Lightning’s master of the universe.

Plus, it makes sense that Gourde could factor as a nice complement to Kucherov. Gourde thrives around the net, and could provide screens and smack in rebounds off Kucherov’s shot. Gourde is a feisty forechecker and speedy retriever who would give Kucherov plenty of touches in the offensive zone as Kucherov bobs and weaves and looks for lanes on the cycle.

Kucherov has been a very eager playmaker this year, but unfortunately Gourde would not be a threat to convert off of Kucherov feeds on the rush. But that shouldn’t prohibit Gourde from playing with Kucherov. Kucherov is a puck-dominant player, and he can have another shooter (Stamkos, Point, or Johnson) and let Gourde do the dirty work. Gourde’s goal on the Stamkos shot against the Sharks was emblematic of his M.O. Gourde makes his money through positioning and speed, and he converted off a carom from a missed shot. Somebody needs to fight in the corners and make life unpleasant in front of the net, and having a plucky henchman working with Kucherov could be useful come postseason.
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