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How many goals and points *should* Sidney Crosby have

February 11, 2018, 4:44 PM ET [114 Comments]
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
It took 11 games to go from 399 to 400, but it is officially in the rear view mirror. Sidney Crosby is a 400 goal scorer. He is the 95th player to do so and he did it with one of his awful angle goal line shots.




A lot goes into scoring 400 goals including overcoming adversity and challenges. Sidney Crosby is certainly no exception to that. In fact it wasn't long ago that him reaching 400 goals was far from a foregone conclusion. That time period from 2010-12 was not fun at all. His career was almost robbed from him because of an obvious "accidental" hit and a misdiagnosis of his concussion like symptoms.

The 2010-12 time period also happened to coincide with his 24-26 year old prime years. The season he was having before the David Steckel hit was his finest to date. His numbers after coming back in 2011-12 and in the lockout shortened season were amazing as well. As were his 2012-13 numbers before losing half the season to a lockout and then the last portion of the regular season to a broken jaw.


Data from Corsica.hockey

All in all Sidney Crosby lost 147 games during his prime years to injury and a lockout. During his prime Sidney Crosby averaged 22 minutes per game. If we were to take his average ice time for 147 games and apply his scoring rates to those minutes we can see just how much Crosby lost out on. For all situations points per 60 I will use 4.41 points per 60. That's what it was in the 2010-11 season and that is what it was in the 2012-13 season. The 2011-12 season was a career high of 5.32, but it was only a 20 game sample so I'll stay on the conservative side and stick with the 4.41 rate. How many points did he miss out on? If my math is correct he lost out on about 238 points. Instead of the 1,089 points he has now he would have 1,327.

How many goals did he lose? I took all of the games he played during the 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2012-13 season and came up with a 1.60 goals per 60 rate. Using the same formula as above (147 games at 22 minutes per game) that would come out to 86 goals that have disappeared from his resume. That would give him 487 on his career. This is staggering to think about.

Injuries are definitely a part of hockey and Sidney Crosby isn't the first nor last player to miss significant time. It is an inherent part of a contact sport. However, when you are talking about the best player of his generation missing time due to brain/neck injuries and lockouts it is all the more frustrating and disappointing.

Congratulations to Sidney Crosby on scoring 400 (and 401) today. We take it for granted now, but there was a real chance that all the goals and points he's acquired since coming back weren't going to happen. We were living day to day hoping for when the daily Sidney Crosby update was going to be positive. Is he going to skate by himself today? He rode the bike yesterday! Does he have headaches today? Every update felt way more important than anything that was going on with the rest of the team. It brought back all those terrible memories of when Mario Lemieux would miss enormous chunks of time. This wasn't going to happen again was it?

Sidney Crosby may have been robbed of his prime, but never his legacy. That's been solidified since his concussion with two Conn Smythe Trophies, two Stanley Cups, a Hart Trophy, an Art Ross Trophy, a Ted Lindsay Award and a Rocket Richard Trophy. Still, it's tough to not ask what could have been.

487 goals

1,327 points

Thanks for reading!
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