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Holy Toffoli

December 14, 2019, 10:14 AM ET [327 Comments]
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Today the Penguins will face the King and it is likely there will be a right winger available in the near future from the Kings. No not Ilya Kovalchuk, although I’m sure the Kings would love to peddle him off on somebody before they reach the point of terminating his contract and being stuck with his cap hit the next two years. The right winger of note is Tyler Toffoli.

Toffoli is a 27 year old pending unrestricted free agent who makes 4.6M and it does not seem like he is in the Kings future plans. Toffoli has been a very solid player for the majority of his career in the league. His raw possession numbers and expected goals have been really good.



The Los Angeles Kings were a possession juggernaut for a few years so I had some concerns about how high his raw totals were, but when you see he was above average compared to his teammates it speaks to him contributing to the positive results and not being somebody who was just along for the ride. This should also fit in well with a Penguins team that has been putting up very impressive underlying numbers and has been an excellent defensive team. We aren’t talking about a one-dimensional player who will drag what the Penguins are already doing well down with him. Toffoli has a lot of years in the mid-fifties which is really impressive.

Just look at how favorably Toffoli compares to the top six winger the team acquired to replace Phil Kessel



When you look through Toffoli’s raw point totals over the years they are not overly impressive.



The good news about these numbers is that Toffoli has a few things going for him. These aren’t padded by power play points. Only 48 out of his 273 career points have come on the power play. Also, the Los Angeles Kings have been one of the more inept teams in their ability to generate tangible offense. They have regularly placed in the bottom third and multiple times in the bottom five in GF/60 at 5v5 during Toffoli’s tenure. The Kings have sucked the offensive juice out of nearly every player in recent years. The raw point totals start to look better when you consider the team he played on and the fact they are predominately 5v5 points. Also, his time was not spent with Anze Kopitar one of the few higher end players the Kings have had. Four of his last seven years he has had a points per 60 above 2.0, including this year



He’s had two clunker years mixed in out of the seven. I like the odds of him being able to contribute on a line with Crosby or Malkin. I like the fact when he isn’t getting points he is still a player with value because of his possession and expected goals contributions.

Something has to happen so both Crosby and Malkin have quality linemates when they are both healthy. We have evidence from this season that both players are still capable of doing really great things. I don’t think they both can with the current roster. I think either one or the other is going to get what they need. If Taylor Hall isn’t realistic (we’ll find out soon enough) I think Toffoli is a really solid player who won’t cost nearly as much as what Hall would. With Gudbranson gone the Penguins have some cap space to play around with. A player with a 4.6M cap hit is well within reason for the Penguins to go after. Should they?

I think it should definitely be under consideration as the season continues. I would inquire about the cost of acquisition after the Taylor Hall trade. Erik Karlsson was given away to San Jose for way less than everybody though. If the same happens with Taylor Hall the price for Toffoli would likely be on a relative scale. I also think the raw point totals in his career will keep his cost down even though he is earning more even-strength points and isn’t being propped up by the power play. I think there’s potential for a reasonable deal to be made.

There are many ways to build a team. I happen to like the 2015-16 version of the Penguins the most, but they don’t have a third dynamic forward anymore to split up the lines the way they did then. They do have the potential to create two elite scoring lines and follow those up with a very defensively sound bottom six who can also contribute a little bit offensively. I think that should be the 2019-20 blueprint. To get there the Penguins need another winger. Toffoli is just an option to consider when trying to achieve that goal.





Thanks for reading!
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