The Jets came into the mandatory week break and All-Star game weekend with a limp after a huge win against the Predators on Thursday night. The 4-2 loss to Dallas was nothing more than looking ahead instead of the task at hand and up until the third period the Jets were already on vacation. They had a chance to get back into the game even pushing for OT but in the end the Stars, already playing for their playoff lives, were the victor and deservedly so.
Now with the Jets able to rest and recuperate along with the possibility of Dustin Byfuglien coming back, and soon after Nik Ehlers, things should be set for the stretch drive. In that period leading up to the trade deadline and then the finish of the season the Jets will have 34 games in 69 days which will be a game every other day. They have 15 home games and 19 away games with 4 games on the road to finish the season versus Chicago then Minnesota in back to back game then Colorado and concluding in Arizona.
At this point Mark Scheifele ranks 11th in the league at 5vs5 minutes with 763:21 and Blake Wheeler sits at 27th with 715:28. This is important because there are concerns that Paul Maurice has been riding the duo too much and given the injuries perhaps he’s been forced to due to his own limitations. When looking at minutes in All Situations Scheifele jumps up to first to 1087:28 with Barkov, Kopitar and McDavid right behind him followed Larkin, Patrick Kane, DRaisaitl and then McKinnon as the first player from a playoff team. Next is Lindholm and is Blake Wheeler at 1029:37.
Outside of the two Jets players there are only 6 others in the top 20 of ice time in all situations who are on teams in playoff contention.
When it comes to defense the Jets top two of Trouba and Morrissey rank as 25th (Trouba) and 35th (Morrissey) for ice time in all situations. At 5vs5 Trouba drops to 28th and Morrissey to 63rd. The defense has been spared the grind in that capacity but with heavier workload coming will that be the case. Will it be the case for the forwards too?
At some point Maurice has to remember, or be reminded, that after the second round war with Nashville which in all likelihood could happen again, the team was spent and if the two key play drivers are cooked then what happens?
February is a short month and it’s also the lead-up to the trade deadline that has the fans of teams in contention salivating, it also has fans of the predicted sellers curious about what might help change their fortunes ‘next season’. The Jets are clearly in the ‘buyer’ category but is there another player like Paul Stastny that could seemingly come from nowhere to change their direction.
In an ideal world another Stastny would be perfect, a play driver that can work with Laine and Ehlers allowing a beefed up third line with Perreault and Little anchoring it to come in and take heat off the top line. The added benefit would be reuniting the TLC line to wreak possession havoc against another team’s bottom six.
That’s one need, is there another?
The Jets top defense pairing is set in stone with Trouba and Morrissey and there is no way Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff gambles trying to trade Trouba at the deadline if he believes he will not re-sign in the summer.
With a healthy defense corps the depth looks like:
Chiarot Byfuglien
Kulikov Myers
Morrow Niku
Given the recent play of Niku in the last two games will Maurice feel confident using him in the post season if something goes wrong with the health of the others? Morrow was brought in last year for insurance and perhaps that might happen again with another player. For whatever reason the pairing of Kulikov and Myers works, they have a balance and seem to finally compliment each other when healthy.
Would bringing in a #4 calibre player to take over from Chiarot be a smart move?
Considering the faith Maurice has put in Chiarot and that he is in his last year of a UFA deal his role presents an interesting conundrum at the deadline. If you can improve upon him should you do it knowing that he could want to leave for greener pastures come the off season? With Niku being a true LHD, does putting him in next season and letting Chiarot go make smart strategic sense? Niku has one more year at $775k which is half of Chiarot now.
Options
There are not a lot of expiring contracts for LHD coming up this season but two names stand out as potential options: Alex Edler and Jay Bouwmeester. There really isn’t much and these two are likely the best of the bunch who meet the criteria of LHD and UFA after this season.
Edler might simply be moving the deck chairs for an older yet experienced player compared to Chiarot.
When considering Bouwmeester the same issue applies. He’s not driving play or doing much more than Chiarot is- why spend more money to get the same?
Now if the Jets expand out a bit and look to expiring contracts for 2020 then a few more options appear and one name that has come up in the rumor mill lately, LA Kings defender Jake Muzzin. It’s not secret the Kings are open to offers and have stated (through media channels), that they will take a first round pick for him at the very least.
Take a look at how Muzzin compares, this is a big step up.
It’s also a salary commitment for one more year but the Jets also have that salary coming off the books and more in both Myers and Chiarot. So this option presents some other forward looking scenarios to consider.
Will Trouba be a Jet come next season and beyond? It’s likely that Kevin Cheveldayoff is going to have a pretty good idea of that possibility before the deadline.
Is Tyler Myers going to be a Jet come next season and beyond? Same answer.
If both those players are in the Jets plans then Muzzin could still happen but change would be coming this offseason to be cap compliant given the contracts for Connor and Laine and Trouba and Myers.
Would LA take salary back? Given that it cost the Jets Joel Armia to trade Steve Mason it’s then going to cost the Jets more to trade salary back to LA. Figure out what that cost is and perhaps it makes sense- LA needs a player or to maybe Kulikov could go back to LA with other assets but to do so might be far too expensive.
A defense set for the playoffs for the Jets could ideally be:
Morrissey Trouba
Muzzin Byfuglien
Kulikov Myers
This is the most ideal of situation but again, price is everything and willingness to manage the cap fallout later.
Let’s chance focus back to the forward group and adding a player that could be seen as helping the depth and to drive play, particularly for that second line.
If the idea is to load up then Chevy should be seeing what Ottawa wants for Duchene. Certainly it’s a pipe dream but if the player and his agent are not sure on the 8x8m/year deal that was presented yesterday as on the table then he’s the exact kind of player that could put the Jets over the edge in terms of depth and talent.
While Bryan Little just finished a 7 game point streak and according to Paul Maurice is playing the best hockey of his career, he is not Matt Duchene.
This price would be steep, very steep but it might be very worth it to take a shot. Another name that has come up is Kevin Hayes on the Rangers. Cheaper to acquire and in salary to pay, even past the deadline, there are bound to be other suitors for Hayes and for good reason. He’s probably a top option for a few GMs.
Unlike the defense corps the forwards are not set to have a space on either the roster or by salary appear any time soon, at least nothing of significance. So its more than likely that Chevy is looking for a rental and rental only and again as far as centres go there are not many.
Perhaps Brassard but would Pittsburgh not want him even for the short term? Marcus Johansson may be of interest to a few GMS but does he move the needle enough? One name who has links to Winnipeg is Colin Wilson. He’s on the last year of his deal with Avalanche but why would they trade to a division rival unless they are truly out of the running by the end of February? Given the season Wilson is having he is much like the defense situation but in reverse a younger version of the same thing.
If there is a need to simply add depth to the forward group would the Jets take interest in Zuccarello? As a RW would he help push down some others so that the bottom line have his experience? Looking at his numbers would be an improvement over Appelton or Roslovic? Likely not other than for experience.
One name that is interesting as a UFA is Dzingel who has 19 goals and 17 assists in 46 games this season. He is affordable at 1.8M and a UFA and can play any of the 3 forward positions if needed. He’s a better scoring version of Andrew Copp. Then there is another forward in the rumor mill by the name of Micheal Ferland. Ferland has been listed as either a RW or LW which could make him a versatile addition that could push out some one like an Appleton or Lemieux which will make some happy. He is looking for a big raise so definitely a rental but look at where he compares to Roslovic or Copp.
Again, he will attract attention just like Muzzin, Hayes and Duchene but likely not quite as expensive to acquire.
The premise, or belief, is that the Jets will want to add at the deadline as this may be the best chance they have to go all-in for a cup run. Obviously owner Mark Chapman and Chevy felt that way last year and they should again this year but does that mean they know what to add? History, or at least last year, would suggest they do and given the inevitable contract conundrums coming regardless of trade acquisitions or not this team has to figure out something to be better and more dangerous. It seems silly to say that given their position but the Jets are good they are not indomitable but they could be.
How much the management team and coach believe in what’s already available within the organization, versus future cap problems, versus roster challenges is going to dictate the moves. The desire to win it all has to come in because these chances are few and far between. However Kevin Cheveldayoff years ago used a phrase which should be noted now as much as it was back then. “You want to win at all-costs not at any cost,” and that’s likely how the Jets will approach the trade deadline willing to pay but not pay anything.
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