OK… just one signing left to do in the Summer of 2018 as the Nashville Predators announced the signing of RFA forward Miikka Salomaki to a two year contract that pays him $750k per year. A very reasonable rate and term for the 25 year old three year NHL veteran. Salomaki has utility up and down the lineup as he has shown over the past few seasons.
It’s an obvious bridge contract as Salomaki will be a UFA at the end of it and does keep with the theme of the summer … the “Prove It” contract.
That leaves one signing left… one that doesn’t officially “have” to happen, but needs to happen in this offseason. Ryan Ellis.
Ellis is finishing a $2.5 million per year contract at the end of the upcoming season and in order for it to not to be a HUGE distraction in the 18/19 season, it really needs to get done this offseason and now that the calendar has turned to August, the pressure will begin to ramp up to get this done.
So… let’s get down to it. What should Ryan Ellis get on this contract?
The prevailing wisdom has the 27 year old, right shooting blueliner will get between $6.5 million and $7.5 million… and using comparisons across the league, that is probably a fair number. Given David Poile’s reticence to give players “no move” clauses, the tax advantage discussion gets thrown out in some respects. Ask Shea Weber about that one…
There is a small contingent of Pred Nation saying that the time is right to trade the Associate Captain, concerns raised about his durability and the miles generated by the over 400 NHL games the 5’10” 180 pound defenseman has played over his seven seasons in the league. The critics talk about the injury sustained in the 2017 playoffs and Ellis’ performance in the 2018 playoffs as reasons to not re-sign Ellis long-term.
These are all valid points… and that doesn’t change the fact that I disagree with them.
Ryan Ellis has an ice sense and a vision that simply doesn’t come along very often. He sees the game so well that he is able to avoid most of the abuse normally taken by a player of his size. Ellis is a top pair defenseman on any other team and probably expects to be paid like it.
Ryan Ellis is an elite defenseman in this league… and it is my belief that his performance in last season’s playoffs was driven by trying to do too much, not losing a step. His performance on the ice in the last half of the season was outstanding, even after the injury that took out half his season last year.
Ryan Ellis is a leader on this team. His voice in the room is large. His role on this team is invaluable. Does that mean you open up the vault for a silly contract… of course not. But… a reasonable amount for term makes sense.
What’s reasonable? Very good question... To answer it, you need to look at the salary cap situation heading into the 19-20 season. As things stand right now… the Predators will have approximately $21.3 million cap dollars available, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number go up by another $3 million, so let’s say there is $24 million available next summer. They will also have three RFA’s to deal with along a couple of UFA's. So… how do you whack up that amount between them?
Get out your crystal ball, because a lot will depend on the kind of season Pekka Rinne has in net. So how do you make this work?
Call Ryan Ellis at $7 million per year AAV. That leaves $17 million. Call Pekka Rinne for two more seasons at $3 million to assist in the transition of Juuse Saros to starter, that leaves $14 million. Colton Sissons will be due a raise, call him another $1.5 - $2 million, you are down to $12 million. Ryan Hartman will all depend on performance this season, a good year will get him to the $2 million range… let’s count on that, the available cap number goes to $10 million.
That leaves Kevin Fiala… who may get a contract close to Filip Forsberg’s if he continues on his upward trajectory… with $10 million remaining against the cap… no worries there. But there is another elephant in the room…
The captain’s contract. Roman Josi will be due for an extension next summer as well… which takes my math and completely blows it up. Or does it?
Let’s say that Fiala gets a contract equal to Forsberg at $6 million per… The projected cap in 20-21 will go up another $2-$3 million… and Nashville will have another $13 million plus to play with… yup… there’s room for Josi too… and Craig Smith, who will be a UFA at the same time as Josi.
Oh, and if Eeli Tolvanen develops as we hope… his RFA year will be 21-22, with more available cap space… Sheesh, it’s almost like someone planned it this way…
So… there you have it… your favorite amateur cap-ologist has broken it down, Which, of course means that something will happen over the next few weeks to completely blow this up.
Happy August everyone!
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Random Notes
- Dante Fabbro has kinda, sorta, maybe made a commitment to not try the free agent route… when asked about free agency he said… “I've always said that I want to play in Nashville and I want to be a Predator.” When referring to free agency he said “I honestly don't think it'll come to that, but a lot of things can happen. My sisters went to school here. I have some roots here. My favorite player growing up was Shea Weber, and obviously Nashville was my favorite team. So I have no reason to want to go somewhere else.” OK…
- NHL.com released it’s Top 250 fantasy player rankings last week. The highest ranked Pred is Filip Forsberg coming in at #40. PK Subban in #41, Roman Josi at #53, Pekka Rinne at #57, Viktor Arvidsson at #81 and Ryan Johansen at #96.
- Other Preds listed – Ryan Ellis at #112, Mattias Ekholm at #182, Kevin Fiala at #192, Craig Smith ay #197, Juuse Saros at #205, Kyle Turris at #211 and Eeli Tolvanen at #220.
- NHL.com’s 31 in 31 series has begun
- Buffalo is getting serious… trading for Jeff Skinner was an excellent move giving the Sabres an excellent potential top line of Skinner with Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart.
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