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Mike's Mailbag: Trades, the Draft, Prospects, and More |
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Thanks to everyone who took the time to submit questions to Mike’s Mailbag! Here are my answers to your questions on the Ottawa Senators:
Shawn asks: Would you say Erik Brannstrom is ahead or behind in his development?
This is kind of a tough question to answer, because “ahead” or “behind” suggests that there’s some relative scale he can be judged against. Is it fair to say that he’s perfectly on track?
It’s true that we all would have loved to see Brannstrom have more offensive success at the NHL level to start the season, but it’s also important to remember that he’s just 20 years old. Players like Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar aren’t exciting because they’re the norm; they’re exciting because they represent exceptions to the rule that it’s really tough to produce as an NHL defender at that age. Brannstrom’s underlying numbers in Ottawa were generally solid, and there’s nothing that suggests he can’t develop the corresponding offensive skills to match.
Mikey R asks: Do you see Ottawa going after Alex Galchenyuk?
He seems like the kind of player that could be acquired in a Namestnikov-like deal, which is something that’s been talked about since… the Namestnikov deal. However, I really don’t think there’s much of a need for a one-dimensional, offensive player with weak underlying numbers, especially with all the talent sitting in Belleville. I’d rather see the team give the homegrown talent a shot.
John asks: I have Colin White in my fantasy league. Should I drop him for Jarnkrok on Nashville, or should I keep White in hopes that he picks it up? I have one move left.
I recently wrote a blog highlighting why I’m not really concerned about White’s production, but I still think that the swap you suggest is worth exploring. Even if White picks it up, his best-case scenario is likely what you’d be getting from Jarnkrok. In a vacuum, it could definitely make sense to make this move. For your last move of the year, though? That’s a decision you’ll have to make on your own…
Caveman asks: If the Sens do end up with the 1st overall pick, Lafreniere or Byfield? Or, outside the top three to five picks, who do you like?
If the Sens are at the top, they should take whomever they judge to be the best player available. I’m partial towards Lafreniere, even with the organization’s positional needs, simply because I’m almost always willing to bet on raw talent and skill winning out over everything else. Take the best player available with the top pick, and then use the San Jose pick to fill holes elsewhere.
I love Tim Stutzle in that next crop for the exact same reason. The league is moving towards more and more small players with supreme skill, and he’s one of those players.
Jesse asks: Who do you see being the first player we trade?
This is a complete guess, but I’ll go with Vlad Namestnikov.
Renaud asks: Will Ottawa’s two first round picks end up in the top 10? Who would you target with them?
At least one of the picks will, and there appears to be a semi-decent chance that the other will as well. In terms of who I’d target, I’ll reiterate that I love Stutzle – but there’s so much talent that’s going to be available! The only name that really scares me near the top of the draft rankings is Askarov, because goalies are impossible to predict and usually aren’t worth spending a first-round pick to acquire.
Laurie asks: What’s the status on Drake Batherson? Does he have a long-term future in Ottawa?
He is absolutely dominating the American Hockey League right now. There’s no reason to think that he can’t have a long-term future with this team.
SportsGuy67 asks: Is Anders Nilsson the long-term solution in goal for this team?
Probably not. There aren’t many goaltenders out there today that can be considered “long-term” solutions for their respective teams. Most organizations that commit big dollars and term to the goaltending position come to regret it. Can Anders Nilsson be a part of this team moving forward? For sure. Should he be signed to some mammoth multi-year contract? No.
Pepe asks: Should San Jose make the playoffs, which players would you target later in the first round?
First of all, we’re not going to entertain the thought of San Jose making the playoffs around here.
Second of all, I don’t really think that I can answer this question fairly. Once you get below the top ten (or so), I simply don’t have an informed opinion that’s worth anything to anyone here. I don’t see enough from most of those names to be able to comment on who might make sense, and I’d rather give you an honest non-opinion than make something up. Sorry!
JP asks: What’s the latest on Pageau? Good chance he resigns in Ottawa or are you leaning more towards him signing in one of the handful of other teams that are inquiring about him? Thanks!
I haven’t seen or heard anything to suggest that there’s been an update to the status quo, but it’s still pretty clear to me that trading him makes the most sense. His value will never be higher than it is right now.
Steve asks: Assuming Pageau can continue his impressive season, what is a realistic return for him at the trade deadline?
A late first-round pick shouldn’t be out of the question here, especially when you look at past deadline deals that have included high picks like that. If Paul Gaustad can go for a first, a scorching hot J-G Pageau can too. If Pierre Dorion can’t squeeze a first out of the market, a combination of a mid-round pick and highly touted prospect could also make sense.
Alex asks: When do you think would be an ideal time to start shipping out some of the UFAs? I'm leaning towards sometime in January to get ahead of the curve, but at the same time, creating a little bidding war would be beneficial if they wait closer to the deadline. I just don't want Dorion to get burned and not get the return we hope to get for guys clearly on their way out.
The Canucks got burned on this a few times earlier in Jim Benning’s tenure, so I certainly understand the concern. If I were the one sitting at Pierre Dorion’s desk, I’d lean towards getting to work right after the holiday roster freeze ends. My hunch is that there’s not going to be a massive bidding war for the lower-tier guys that the Senators have available, so the additional value that could be extracted at the deadline is probably immaterial when compared to the risk associated with leaving things too late. On the flip side, it might make sense to wait until closer to the deadline for bigger fish like Pageau.
Scott asks: DeMelo has been impressive this year - do you see him as a trade chip or part of the future? I like him as part of the future as it looks like he can play in any of the 3 D pairings - what do you think an extension would look like for him in terms of years and AAV?
In my mind, he’s established himself as a clear part of the future. It’s not just that he can play anywhere in the defensive rotation like you mention, but also that he has the ability to make everyone he plays with better. Those guys are tough to find.
DeMelo is making $900K right now, so it shouldn’t be difficult for the team to give him a healthy raise that makes him comfortable with the idea of re-signing. Perhaps something in the three or four-year range at an annual value of between $2M and $3M?
Wardbell92 asks: Is there a minor league trade or potential waiver pick up to help provide the Sens with some depth that they desperately need? Maybe move Boedker for an equal contract (Scandella?) or move a Belleville guy (not anyone with significant potential)?
I’m not convinced that the need is all that significant. Rather that move out a Belleville guy with low potential, why not call up a Belleville guy with significant potential if you’re worried about the NHL team’s depth?
Storman asks: When will Mike Babcock coach in the NHL again? Very soon, maybe someday, or never.
I’ll take very soon, meaning within the next season or two. Someone will give him a shot.
CB asks: Tkachuk… pest or villain after taking the puck (regardless of true intentions)? I personally thought it was immaturity after his errant pass resulted in a turnover that cost the Sens the game.
I feel like you kind of have to look at his true intentions if you want to label him a pest or villain. This seemed like an honest mistake, and Primeau didn’t seem too upset about it:
David asks: How many (and which) players from Belleville do you think start with the team in October 2020?
I think there’s a potential for this next “graduating class” to be fairly large. Names that stick out to me are as follows:
Josh Norris – if the team trades Tierney and Pageau, there will be a big hole in the lineup for someone like Norris to come in and fill. He’s having a nice season in Belleville, and is looking closer and closer to being ready.
Vitaly Abramov – he’s been up and down between Ottawa and the farm this year, so there’s no reason to think that he can’t make the opening night roster next year once a bunch of the older players are shipped out at this year’s trade deadline.
Drake Batherson – he’s leading the AHL in scoring right now. I don’t see how the Senators could not give him a long look to start next year if he continues at this pace. It might even come sooner than that.
Rudolfs Balcers – Again, this is a player who looks nearly ready to move beyond the AHL. He showed reasonably well in NHL minutes last season, and has surpassed expectations in his AHL time this season.
Erik Brannstrom – He’ll get another shot, for sure.
I’ve left Alex Formenton off this list, because I don’t see the organization completely gutting Belleville after this year. Someone has to stick around down there for opening night!
Sean asks: Who do you think will be the first domino Ottawa trades away? Out of the RFAs/UFAs who do you think will resign in Ottawa first/ also who do you think is less likely to be wearing an Ottawa jersey September? Borocop new deal.. 3 years 3 million? Captaincy?
I already answered the first question above, and my answer to your second question hasn’t changed since the last Mailbag. On Borocop, I do think it makes sense to re-sign him. He has more value to the Senators than he’d have anywhere else, and the Sens have the cap “flexibility” to overpay to keep him. A 3x3 deal seems like it could make sense for both sides.
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As always, thanks for reading.
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