Welcome back to Mike’s Mailbag! Here are my answers to the next set of your questions:
Mario asks: What is the best value the Sens can get with the Islanders’ first round pick? Draft Askarov, draft a player that might be around in the future, or trade for a young known player with good term and contract?
At this stage of the Sens’ development curve, making the selection is probably the safest bet. Askarov is my least favorite of the three options you’ve presented. Of course, if the Islanders keep winning and the value of that pick drops further, the conversation might change.
Daniel asks: Who do you think Ottawa should draft in the first round this year? And do you think Ottawa can trade three or four second round picks for another first round pick? If so, who would be the fourth first rounder you would draft? Go Sens Go!! I say 2-3 years and we’ll be an NHL powerhouse again.
I like Byfield/Stutzle at three, Raymond at five, and… we’ll have to see where the Islanders pick lands. There’s probably an opportunity to move up into the first round with a combination of second-round picks. It likely wouldn’t take three or four seconds to do it, assuming you aren’t talking about top-15 first round pick – e.g. off the top of my head I recall the Lightning dealing 28th overall to the New York Islanders for 35th and 57th overall back in 2014. As I’ve said in this space many times, moving up is dangerous business and it’s often easy to over pay. Adding a fourth first round pick and taking a chance on Hendrix Lapierre’s health could be a fun gamble, though.
Richard asks: Dorion has a history of unexpected picks. Assuming he does the obvious pick at third overall, which pick does he go off the board with: fifth overall, the NYI pick, or other?
I think it’d be tough to go “off the board” at five given that so many names consistently show up in that range. Odds suggest that the Sens will go with one of them. The fact that Dorion is likely to get two highly-touted prospects early on could allow him to go off the board with the NYI pick.
Bo asks: Hey Mike, I feel like Dorion hasn’t been playing his cards very close to his chest with his desire to select Stutzle. What do you think Blake might be thinking in LA? LA Kings are already super deep at C and have had success with European players. Worry that QB is another Nolan Patrick or Logan Brown – people can’t see past his shadow – but that Stutzle is the real deal, and a guy we could plug at RW, which IMO is the Sens’ weakest position. Suppose you can’t complain with QB falling, but curious to know a) your thoughts on the situation and b) what Ottawa should do at RW.
Everything I’ve seen suggests that the Kings really like Stutzle, but it’s impossible to know for certain what they’ll do at this stage of the game. With respect to Byfield, like you, I feel that there’s always some natural skepticism about bigger players who succeed in junior/college. However, there are a lot of really smart prospect analysts who have recently suggested that the gap between Byfield and Lafreniere isn’t as significant as once thought, and that there’s a sound enough case for Byfield at #1. If that kind of talent somehow falls to the Senators at third overall, it’s tough to call it anything but a major win for the franchise.
Lucas Raymond is my solution to the RW conundrum. Problem solved.
Scott asks: There are a couple of ways to leverage our cap space to our benefit: 1) Take bad contracts that last 1-3 years from good teams for future assets while giving up very little from our young and controllable depth (think Eriksson from Vancouver or Russell from Edmonton), or 2) try to pry very good young players from teams in exchange for some of the young controllable players and picks that they need (Sergachev, etc.). Which approach do you favour and which teams/players would you target?
Why not both? I love your thinking here, and the names/teams that spring to mind for me are the ones that you’ve used as examples. To me, Vancouver presents a phenomenal opportunity. They are going to see this little playoff run as an indication that they are ready to compete, and will need cap space to keep the band together (given all the bad contracts on that roster). To the extent that the Senators can help to facilitate that for them, I think there’s a real opportunity to extract significant value from a team that hasn’t won too many trades under its current management group.
Checking in with Tampa on Sergachev or Cirelli is also a good idea this offseason.
The smart play here might be to use some of the draft/prospect capital to go after an impact young player, and then immediately replenish the cupboard by taking on a dead weight contract.
Tony asks: Ottawa has so many draft picks that people have suggested they trade for legitimate NHL players or to move up in the draft. I would like them to trade some of this year’s picks for multiple picks in the future (i.e. a 2020 2nd for a 2021 2nd and 3rd). What do you think of the idea?
Maybe it makes sense as a one-off, but I’m not sure that I love it as a strategy. This offseason is about shaping the Ottawa Senators that are going to compete in ~three years. Trading draft capital that they worked so hard to acquire for future draft capital just pushes out the impact that it can make. It’s also not as though they have a real shortage of 2021 picks.
Josh asks: Hey, just wondering if you have heard anything about when Ottawa will be announcing their new jerseys? Thanks!
When the team announced its new charitable foundation, they suggested that a “rebrand” would be coming within weeks. We shall see!
David22 asks: Where do you see the Isles pick winding up?
With Ottawa’s luck? 31st.
In all seriousness, what the Islanders are doing to the Washington Capitals is nothing short of amazing:
Coady asks: What do you think the odds are of LA taking Stutzle over Byfield?
Everything I’ve read suggests that the odds of that are reasonably good.
Giulio asks: Should Ottawa trade their three first rounders for Lafreniere? Considering 3 and 5 are not as promising to be gamechangers/potential elite players whereas Lafreniere looks promising (no guarantee) to be?
No. The three and five for one idea that’s been floated is bad enough. Adding the Islanders’ pick to the equation would be an even more ridiculous overpayment. The Sens are going to get two really good players at third and fifth overall. Stick with the plan.
--
As always, thanks for reading!
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»