After radio silence for most of the summer, the restricted free agent market has seen a flurry of activity in the last few days; big names like Mitch Marner, Brock Boeser, Charlie McAvoy, Zach Werenski, and Ivan Provorov have all inked deals very recently. The last three players listed should be of particular interest to the Ottawa Senators as they continue to negotiate with Thomas Chabot, who will be a restricted free agent after this year.
While it was thought by some that the Marner contract would ‘reset’ the marketplace for restricted free agents, the reality for recently signed rearguards suggests that isn’t the case. Case in point:
Zach Werenski: 3 years, $15M ($5M AAV)
Charlie McAvoy: 3 years, $14.7M ($4.9M AAV)
Ivan Provorov: 6 years, $40.5M ($6.75M AAV)
What those deals show us is that both the bridge deal and the relatively affordable long-term deal still exist in today’s NHL. Maybe Marner’s negotiation was the outlier, after all.
The Senators, for their part, have to be particularly pleased about the aforementioned contracts that have been handed out to restricted free agent D in recent days. The market has now been semi-set for Thomas Chabot’s negotiation, and it seems reasonable even for a stingy Senators team.
Now, it should be noted that none of this is to say that all of Chabot’s leverage to go for the massive overpay is gone. See below for evidence:
That chart should tell you two things:
1) Chabot is very, very good. Even his raw (non-relative) numbers show his expected goals-for percentage as being north of 50%; and
2) Chabot is on a bit of an island when it comes to being a proven, effective player on Ottawa’s back end. His relative numbers are boosted thanks in part to the weakness around him.
Those two factors could combine to create some serious bargaining power for the 22-year-old. But, even so, the Senators should be thrilled that the baseline for their negotiations has been set in the $5M range for a short-term deal and the $7M range for a long-term deal. Things could have been made a lot more difficult if the three players referenced previously signed for a few million more.
What's your prediction for where the Chabot deal lands? Let me know in the comments section.
As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart was the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz from 2012 to 2015, and has been the Ottawa Senators writer since September 2019. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter. 
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